UPDATE: $35,400 Model 3 only available "off the menu" - Page 43 - Chevy Bolt EV Forum
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post #421 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 11:55 AM
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My friend drives every day on the 99 with autopilot and doesn't pay attention at all.
Well, he's certainly a ticking time bomb waiting to go off if your "doesn't pay attention at all" statement isn't hyperbole.
Right now the highway driving of a Tesla is better than 99% of drivers on the highway. It stays in lanes, switches lanes automatically, and even handles on and off ramps. The only issues i have seen are not signaling all the time when merging or taking forks on the highway. Also the probability of a fender bender is much less with autopilot. The car can track speeds of other vehicles much better than any human can. Hands off highway driving will be available this year with only a few improvements.
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post #422 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 12:21 PM
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Right now the highway driving of a Tesla is better than 99% of drivers on the highway. It stays in lanes, switches lanes automatically, and even handles on and off ramps. The only issues i have seen are not signaling all the time when merging or taking forks on the highway. Also the probability of a fender bender is much less with autopilot. The car can track speeds of other vehicles much better than any human can. Hands off highway driving will be available this year with only a few improvements.
I wish them luck, but based on my personal experience with the system (late last year in a TM3, whatever version that was) I will be on the sidelines until the rate of terminal crashes and decapitations drops down to my personal pucker factor tolerance point. I do admire yours and Teslas optimism however...

Can they now successfully distinguish between a bridge underpass and a tractor trailer crossing my path at 65 MpH?
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post #423 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 12:37 PM
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Autopilot from last September when I used it with a P90D model X and now in May, is night and day.
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post #424 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 12:42 PM
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Right now the highway driving of a Tesla is better than 99% of drivers on the highway. It stays in lanes, switches lanes automatically, and even handles on and off ramps. The only issues i have seen are not signaling all the time when merging or taking forks on the highway. Also the probability of a fender bender is much less with autopilot. The car can track speeds of other vehicles much better than any human can. Hands off highway driving will be available this year with only a few improvements.
I'm pretty sure you're pulling that 99% stat out of your buttocks, but let's assume it's true: just that pesky 1% where AP doesn't quite work out!
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post #425 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 12:48 PM
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Right now the highway driving of a Tesla is better than 99% of drivers on the highway. It stays in lanes, switches lanes automatically, and even handles on and off ramps. The only issues i have seen are not signaling all the time when merging or taking forks on the highway. Also the probability of a fender bender is much less with autopilot. The car can track speeds of other vehicles much better than any human can. Hands off highway driving will be available this year with only a few improvements.
I'm pretty sure you're pulling that 99% stat out of your buttocks, but let's assume it's true: just that pesky 1% where AP doesn't quite work out!
So how many fatalities are do to autopilot per mile compared to regular fatalities? I am sure I can find Bolt fatalities as well.
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post #426 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 01:00 PM
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So how many fatalities are do to autopilot per mile compared to regular fatalities? I am sure I can find Bolt fatalities as well.
I'd argue that the FATAL injury rate of cars actively using AP compared to regular drivers does not paint nearly as rosy a picture compared to overall accident rates of cars without AP.

And please find an article where a Bolt driver was killed in an accident. I've yet to come across one. Meanwhile, I've seen at least a dozen AP-induced Tesla owner death stories over the past 2-3 years, if not more.

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post #427 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 01:27 PM
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And please find an article where a Bolt driver was killed in an accident.
I have seen one article about a drunk Bolt driver going the wrong way down a divided highway. He survived, but killed the folks in the car he hit head-on.
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post #428 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 01:36 PM
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I have seen one article about a drunk Bolt driver going the wrong way down a divided highway. He survived, but killed the folks in the car he hit head-on.
Yeah, that's the closest I've seen to a fatal Bolt accident. But I don't exactly hunt down those stories.
Meanwhile, I see "Tesla owner died in Autopilot-induced crash" stories every couple of months pop into my news feed.

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post #429 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 01:42 PM
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Self driving demo

Here's a demo shot a few days ago showing that they currently can recognize stop signs, stop lights, and make left hand turns. Not geofenced. Also, not yet on production cars.




During the investors call yesterday, Musk laid out quite an ambitious claim on the future of autonomy and how it impacts Tesla.


"the discussions mainly focused on the opportunities presented by the Tesla Network’s Robotaxi service, which is made possible by the creation of an in-house FSD computer and chip designed by legendary Apple chipmaker Pete Bannon. According to two investors who heard the call, Musk described Tesla’s current electric vehicle and energy business as a backstop of value to the company’s business in the upcoming driverless era. "


"Echoing previous statements, Musk reportedly highlighted that competitors such as Alphabet’s Waymo and GM’s Cruise will have a difficult time catching up to Tesla because of the electric car maker’s advantage in real-world data. Tesla has hundreds of thousands of cars on the road, and most of which are capable of gathering data and sending it back to Tesla for use in Autopilot and Full Self-Driving improvements."


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-netw...ion-elon-musk/


As to who's autonomous fleet is in the lead, it depends on who you ask. One thing for sure though is that LiDAR is a dead end even in the eyes of the guys that pioneered it. Which may mean that companies that have relied on it for the HD mapping and data will have a difficult time keeping up. Not to mention, the price alone will restrict it's use on production cars.


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla...ahead-analyst/


Per Anthony Levandowski, founder and CEO of Pronto.ai, and was heavily involved in the development of Waymo’s full self-driving solutions. He later oversaw Uber’s autonomous driving program.


“I don’t have any restrictions on not doing LiDAR, but I do have restrictions personally of not doing things that I know are not gonna work. So, in the past, I understood, I could see what we were doing, and basically, back in 2009 or 2010, you could see that the LiDARs didn’t have the performance that you needed because you couldn’t see far enough to actually, safely, have the system react to software. It turns out that even with LiDAR, what’s missing today is not seeing more accurately or further; what’s missing is understanding what is happening to those vehicles around you and being able to predict what the motion is, "


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon...cornell-study/


Whether Tesla will be feature complete by end of year for FSD remains to be seen. (This does not mean that production cars will be FSD, there still needs to be regulatory approval). Taking Musk time into account, probably closer to 12/2020. Still, if you today were to put Waymo, Cruise, and Tesla's self driving up against each other on a random road test, smart money would be on Tesla.
The important point though is they are constantly making incremental improvements that are being released OTA at a faster clip. I got this one 2 days ago and a previous update to stop sign warning 2 weeks ago.


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-auto...idance-safety/
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post #430 of 467 (permalink) Old 05-03-2019, 01:55 PM
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Yeah, that's the closest I've seen to a fatal Bolt accident. But I don't exactly hunt down those stories.
Meanwhile, I see "Tesla owner died in Autopilot-induced crash" stories every couple of months pop into my news feed.
Source please.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...car_fatalities
Total of 3.
1.18 fatalities for every 100,000,000 miles under human control.


From about a year ago,
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla...w-mode-report/
1,200,000,000 autopilot miles/3=.25 fatalities for every 100,000,000.


What orifice did you pull your numbers out of?
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