Here's a demo shot a few days ago showing that they currently can recognize stop signs, stop lights, and make left hand turns. Not geofenced. Also, not yet on production cars.
During the investors call yesterday, Musk laid out quite an ambitious claim on the future of autonomy and how it impacts Tesla.
"the discussions mainly focused on the opportunities presented by the Tesla Network’s Robotaxi service, which is made possible by the creation of an in-house FSD computer and chip designed by legendary Apple chipmaker Pete Bannon. According to two investors who heard the call, Musk described Tesla’s current electric vehicle and energy business as a backstop of value to the company’s business in the upcoming driverless era. "
"Echoing previous statements, Musk reportedly highlighted that competitors such as Alphabet’s Waymo and GM’s Cruise will have a difficult time catching up to Tesla because of the electric car maker’s advantage in real-world data
. Tesla has hundreds of thousands of cars on the road, and most of which are capable of gathering data and sending it back to Tesla for use in Autopilot and Full Self-Driving improvements."
As to who's autonomous fleet is in the lead, it depends on who you ask. One thing for sure though is that LiDAR is a dead end even in the eyes of the guys that pioneered it. Which may mean that companies that have relied on it for the HD mapping and data will have a difficult time keeping up. Not to mention, the price alone will restrict it's use on production cars.
Per Anthony Levandowski, founder and CEO of Pronto.ai, and was heavily involved in the development of Waymo’s full self-driving solutions. He later oversaw Uber’s autonomous driving program.
“I don’t have any restrictions on not doing LiDAR, but I do have restrictions personally of not doing things that I know are not gonna work. So, in the past, I understood, I could see what we were doing, and basically, back in 2009 or 2010, you could see that the LiDARs didn’t have the performance that you needed because you couldn’t see far enough to actually, safely, have the system react to software. It turns out that even with LiDAR, what’s missing today is not seeing more accurately or further; what’s missing is understanding what is happening to those vehicles around you and being able to predict what the motion is, "
Whether Tesla will be feature complete by end of year for FSD remains to be seen. (This does not mean that production cars will be FSD, there still needs to be regulatory approval). Taking Musk time into account, probably closer to 12/2020. Still, if you today were to put Waymo, Cruise, and Tesla's self driving up against each other on a random road test, smart money would be on Tesla.
The important point though is they are constantly making incremental improvements that are being released OTA at a faster clip. I got this one 2 days ago and a previous update to stop sign warning 2 weeks ago.