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post #71 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-23-2019, 07:03 PM
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Originally Posted by wonderbolt View Post
Although I believe that you are correct based only on direct costs, when you factor in indirect costs, based on UBS report, EBIT of a base (LT) Bolt GM is losing $7000, (Page 17) and the investor meeting reviewing the GM EV programs where Mary Barra's slide deck had a slide (#17) titled "Path to Profitability" I have concluded that today's Bolt is not profitable.
I wonder if they are going to let us know when they start breaking even, like Carlos Ghosn did with the LEAFs ('leaves' is all wrong ). I can't see why they wouldn't be improving on cost. We keep hearing battery prices are still improving.

I'm glad this thread stopped gloating over Tesla's stock price dropping. I for one am glad people are investing their money to drive the EV revolution with only slim hope of ever getting it back . A bankrupt Tesla wouldn't be good for anyone.

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post #72 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-23-2019, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Honest Abe View Post
Analyists calculated that GM lost nearly $9000 per Bolt, early on (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/30/gm-s...hevy-bolt.html)
This is based on the idea that the Bolt had to pay off all the (indirect) development costs associated with the Bolt platform. Even if you say that is required, the more Bolts sold, the more the development-costs-share-per-car drops.

I think that if sold at MSRP, the Bolt would make a small profit (ignoring development costs). Currently, however, the Bolt is steeply discounted. I can't help feeling those discounts do take it to a net loss that is balanced by the CARB credits it generates.
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post #73 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 09:23 AM
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FWIW I don't buy the line that GM takes a loss on every Bolt sold, I do believe they are the least profitable vehicle in the entire GM lineup but I think they at least break even on every stripped down LT an definitely make money on the Premiers or any with DCFC.
Well we can agree to disagree, but the CEO of GM (Mary Barra) as recently as Feb. 2019, has stated that GM isn't profitable on the BEVs.

https://leftlanenews.com/chevrolet/b...ot-profitable/

Pick your source, but you'll see the same information from the investors brief.

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They aren't just "operating" they are still expanding at a breakneck pace and that's expensive. Building factories, opening or expanding SC sites, R&D money spent on the Model Y, the Semi or whatever, it all comes at a cost. They see it as an investment in the future of the company and I don't know if they are right or wrong but if they just decided a ~5 years ago (or before they started development on the Model 3) that they just wanted to keep selling the Models S & X with their single factory with minimal additional investment they would absolutely be profitable as a company.
I understand Tesla is spending money on far more than just production. The main question here is why. I believe that's partly because sales of Model S and X are falling off. I'm not sure the company is sustainable on 50,000 vehicles a year (Model S & X). Hard to say, because Tesla doesn't break out their financials in way that allows one to really see what's driving costs easily. Model S sales peaked in 2016, declined in 2017, declined again in 2018, and is declined so far in 2019 through Q1.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...tesla-model-s/

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...tesla-model-x/

It's nice to get an idea of other perspectives though. I appreciate learning what others think/feel on this whole BEV industry. Having previously worked in the automotive world (Tier 1 supplier), and being based in the Midwest... well, I get different limited view of the industry. Appreciate hearing your take on it as well.

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post #74 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 11:20 AM
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TSLA down to $189 now...maybe that one guy's prediction of it cratering to $10 is actually not crazy.

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post #75 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 11:32 AM
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Well we can agree to disagree, but the CEO of GM (Mary Barra) as recently as Feb. 2019, has stated that GM isn't profitable on the BEVs.

https://leftlanenews.com/chevrolet/b...ot-profitable/

Pick your source, but you'll see the same information from the investors brief.



I understand Tesla is spending money on far more than just production. The main question here is why. I believe that's partly because sales of Model S and X are falling off. I'm not sure the company is sustainable on 50,000 vehicles a year (Model S & X). Hard to say, because Tesla doesn't break out their financials in way that allows one to really see what's driving costs easily. Model S sales peaked in 2016, declined in 2017, declined again in 2018, and is declined so far in 2019 through Q1.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...tesla-model-s/

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...tesla-model-x/

It's nice to get an idea of other perspectives though. I appreciate learning what others think/feel on this whole BEV industry. Having previously worked in the automotive world (Tier 1 supplier), and being based in the Midwest... well, I get different limited view of the industry. Appreciate hearing your take on it as well.
It's difficult to gauge whether the statistics from California represent a future trend of the rest of country. Part of if may be that Tesla is the only automaker in California and they supply well over half of all BEV's.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mode...-cncda-report/
This muddies the waters as to what the real demand is, when you take Tesla out of the equation. But based on the link below, EV growth is gaining momentum to over 5% of total sales in Ca.
https://evadoption.com/ev-market-sha...re-california/
Additionally, the Model 3 in Q4/18 was in the top 5 best selling cars (not just BEV's) in the country.


As more and more EV's hit the streets, and the exposure to their advantages become hard to dismiss, even for hard core ICEV proponents, the tide will turn. From the anecdotal evidence from other Model 3 owners, it's a rare passenger that isn't blown away when given or taken a test drive, to the point that they most usually claim, "this will be their next car". I'm sure you see the same thing with Bolts.


If you listen to the comments by Palihapitiya, he makes a compelling case at the 5 minute mark.
There's also the statistics comparing numbers of mid-size luxury cars since that's the Model 3 segment (per EPA). In Q1/2019 which most will agree was a disastrous quarter for Tesla, they sold more Model 3's that any mid-size luxury auto in the US in all of 2018 (7:20). This even after the cut back on the FedCred to half.
The demand still outstrips the supply so we still don't know when they will reach the saturation point. I'm certainly optimistic for the future of EV's as I've been driving them for 4 years now and come from a passion for well engineered, quality, performance cars and will never go back. I'm not an outlier in that position.


To help clarify your point as to why Tesla is spending so much money, it's an extremely small amount that is spent on a refresh for the S and X Raven that is now being shipped. The breakdown is more in line with investment in future growth and support such as Maxwell acquisition, Supercharger build out, GF3 in China, Software development, Autonomy, Service Centers, etc.
As I think Raitchison pointed out, if they just sat on their hands and cranked out Models S,3, and X without regards for the supercharger network or plans to eventually produce millions/year, they would be extremely profitable to around a 20% margin. Google Sandy Munro's talks on Autoline where he discusses the cost breakdowns for the US built cars. The Chinese versions will be even cheaper but we won't be seeing any of them here.
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post #76 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 12:25 PM
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TSLA down to $189 now...maybe that one guy's prediction of it cratering to $10 is actually not crazy.
Not crazy at all; cause that's like "predicting" that you're going to die. The trick is predicting when.

All stocks will eventually return to zero. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Got any predictions that include a timeframe?

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post #77 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 02:26 PM
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Not crazy at all; cause that's like "predicting" that you're going to die. The trick is predicting when.

All stocks will eventually return to zero. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Got any predictions that include a timeframe?
imminently (according to people who are short on TSLA)

BTW, the more a Tesla critic talks about Tesla's stock price the more I suspect that they have a financial incentive in seeing the stock decline.
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post #78 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 02:36 PM
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There's plenty of reasons people would want to see Tesla collapse that doesn't involve financial incentive. Musk has conspicuous character flaws similar to Trump, and that alone would give some people reason to want to see failure. The other big one is simple tribalism; championing 1 brand over others, especially the one that is largest in the EV sphere. It's like looking forward to The Patriots losing simply because they have been so dominant.
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post #79 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 02:41 PM
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There's plenty of reasons people would want to see Tesla collapse that doesn't involve financial incentive. Must has conspicuous character flaws similar to Trump, and that alone would give some people reason to want to see failure. The other big one is simple tribalism; championing 1 brand over others, especially the one that is largest in the EV sphere. It's like looking forward to The Patriots losing simply because they have been so dominant.
I'd be happy to see TSLA's price collapse to the point shareholders decide to give Elon a swift kick in the a$$ out the door, and get a real CEO to replace him. Then I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock price start its march back upwards. Elon is a cancer that needs to be removed. Despite zealot fanatical thinking, Tesla does not need Elon to succeed.

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post #80 of 127 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 03:23 PM
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Maybe so, but Musk was crucial to get Tesla up and running in the first place. Perhaps his entrepreneurial talent is now more of a stumbling block than an asset at this point in Tesla's cycle. There's no way for me to know if his level of micromanagement is a net good or not. Vision is what top management should supply, not logistics. Everyone would agree that many of his Tweets are not helpful.
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