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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
The NY Times had an article saying that GM will reach the 200000 mark for EVs in 2018. I guess this includes the Spark? But not the Volt? The point of course is that when that happens the large US tax credit ends (tho CEO Barra is arguing for a change). Does anyone have a guess when in 2018 this might happen? This affects a friend who wants to purchase one, but not in coming month or two. I realize this is a GM issue, not purely a BOLT issue.
 

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The NY Times had an article saying that GM will reach the 200000 mark for EVs in 2018. I guess this includes the Spark? But not the Volt? The point of course is that when that happens the large US tax credit ends (tho CEO Barra is arguing for a change). Does anyone have a guess when in 2018 this might happen? This affects a friend who wants to purchase one, but not in coming month or two. I realize this is a GM issue, not purely a BOLT issue.
The credit starts at $2,500 for cars with a plug-in battery of 5 kWh, plus $417 for each additional kWh, up to $7,500. The Volt battery is just large enough to get the full $7,500 credit...no accident.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
So if all Volts sold to date count towards to 200000, then that would indicate that stop-day could be close.
 

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GM plug-ins include Volt, Spark EV, two different Cadillacs, and the Bolt, starting in December of 2010. As of last month they were at 172,184. They only need to average 2,781.6 a month, between the Bolt. and Volt. The Spark and the Cadillacs are history.
 

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The NY Times had an article saying that GM will reach the 200000 mark for EVs in 2018. I guess this includes the Spark? But not the Volt? The point of course is that when that happens the large US tax credit ends (tho CEO Barra is arguing for a change). Does anyone have a guess when in 2018 this might happen? This affects a friend who wants to purchase one, but not in coming month or two. I realize this is a GM issue, not purely a BOLT issue.
"The point of course is that when that happens the large US tax credit ends"

That is incorrect - it is not immediate. AFTER the 200K limit is reached, the tax credit starts winding down (slowly reduced). I'm not going to look up all the details (you can search on this site, it has been mentioned on this forum before), but the quarter when 200K is reached, the tax credit is still 100% (of what it would be if the limit hadn't been reached) AS WELL AS the quarter after that. Then it starts reducing every quarter or two until it eventually gets to 0.
 

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Best estimate for the START of the phase-out is Q4 2018 or Q1 2019. GM recently announced that Bolt production will be increased “later this year”, so the exact date of the start of phase-out is uncertain. It’s likely the full credit will be available at least through the end of 2018.

Also note that GM is lobbying hard to get the credit extended, although it’s doubtful that Congress will do that.

The credit remains at the full $7500 through the end of the quarter in which 200,000 is reached.

For the next two quarters after that the credit is reduced by 50%. ($3750)

For the next two quarters after that the credit is reduced by 50% again. ($1875)

Credit ends after that.

Eligibility for the full or partial credit is determined based on the date the car is put in service, not on the manufacturing date. Generally a car is considered to be put in service when it’s registered.
 

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Am I missing something? Does the 7500 credit end when the 200,000th car of a particular model is sold, or does it apply to ALL models a manufacturer makes? In other words does the each model of car have it's own 200,000 counter? Or will it end when GM sells the 200,000th qualifying vehicle?
 

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Am I missing something? Does the 7500 credit end when the 200,000th car of a particular model is sold, or does it apply to ALL models a manufacturer makes? In other words does the each model of car have it's own 200,000 counter? Or will it end when GM sells the 200,000th qualifying vehicle?
When GM sells its 200,000 EV or PHEV, the 7500 will be phased out. For Tesla it is counting all the Roadsters, Model S, 3, and X. The credit doesn't end for GM immediately, it is a phase out. The next quarter is still 7500 after the 200,000 vehicle is sold, the $3,750 for the next 6 months, and then $1870 for the last 6 months. GM and Tesla will both hit the 200,000 vehicle this year.
 

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The post wasn’t 200,000 EV’s - it was 200,000 Bolts - which will be never.
The thread title was misleading, but the actual post was clearly about when GM would reach the 200,000 EV mark.

Also, never say never. If the Bolt model is marketed for a few years it could very well hit 200,000 units. GM has promised increased production later this year.
 

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When GM sells its 200,000 EV or PHEV, the 7500 will be phased out. For Tesla it is counting all the Roadsters, Model S, 3, and X. The credit doesn't end for GM immediately, it is a phase out. The next quarter is still 7500 after the 200,000 vehicle is sold, the $3,750 for the next 6 months, and then $1870 for the last 6 months. GM and Tesla will both hit the 200,000 vehicle this year.
My understanding is that the $7500 credit is kept in full only through the end of the quarter in which 200,000 is reached. The next two quarters are then 50% less, and the next two after that another 50% less.
 

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Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.


If GM times it so the 200,00th is delivered at or near the beginning of a quarter, they have (nearly) 2 full quarters (6 mos) with the full $7,500 credit. Then 6 mos @ 50% and 6 mos @ 25%.
 

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Edit: Oops, I didn't see that there was a second page to the thread. Sorry. Where is the "embarrassed red-faced" emoticon?

{...}

The credit remains at the full $7500 through the end of the quarter in which 200,000 is reached.

For the next two quarters after that the credit is reduced by 50%. ($3750)

For the next two quarters after that the credit is reduced by 50% again. ($1875)

Credit ends after that.

Eligibility for the full or partial credit is determined based on the date the car is put in service, not on the manufacturing date. Generally a car is considered to be put in service when it’s registered.
Close - but not correct. You are off by one quarter. If the 200,000th EV is between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2018 (Q4 2018), then every vehicle in Q4/2018 and Q1/2019 will get a 100% tax credit (*if* the tax credit law isn't changed).

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).

Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period.



The phase out begins in "the second calendar quarter after" not, "the first" or "the next" calendar quarter.
 

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It is a shame that those companies that pushed EVs for the last few years (i.e., those who will soon reach the 200K limit) like Tesla, Nissan, GM, and Toyota will be penalized now that EVs are actually reasonable and (somewhat) affordable.

Frankly, if the phase-out for some companies does start in 2019 - I will be looking seriously at Hyundai (PHEVs and Ioniq), Kia (Niro and PHEVs), and Honda (Clarity, 48 mile electric PHEV!) for my next EV buy.

I personally would like to see the law changed to make it a level playing field, with credits valid based only on size of battery (and maybe with a MPGe multiplier), and expiring for all on the same date (say, starting for 2019 model year and ending after 2022?).

Under 25 kWh (usable) : $2500
25-50 KWh : $5000
over 50 kWh : $7500


with MPGe of 120 or 125 being "100%" of credit, lower MPGe getting a smaller percentage of the credit, and nobody getting over 100%.

Or maybe the 'multiplier' should be based on battery density (capacity/weight or cap/volume) in order to spur production of more efficient batteries (helping offset the cost of new technology).
 

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Edit: Oops, I didn't see that there was a second page to the thread. Sorry. Where is the "embarrassed red-faced" emoticon?



Close - but not correct. You are off by one quarter. If the 200,000th EV is between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2018 (Q4 2018), then every vehicle in Q4/2018 and Q1/2019 will get a 100% tax credit (*if* the tax credit law isn't changed).

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).

Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period.



The phase out begins in "the second calendar quarter after" not, "the first" or "the next" calendar quarter.
Thanks for the correction. This gradual phase-out is good news for Tesla, especially if Tesla succeeds in cranking out 10k cars per week by the end of 2018. If Tesla can time the 200,000th car threshold near the beginning of a calendar quarter it will be possible to build a few hundred thousand cars before the credit gets cut in half.

Of course, hitting that promised 10k cars per week will be the real achievement. Right now the Bloomberg guess-o-meter has weekly Model 3 production at under 700 units. That’s a decent number if you’re making Bolts, not so good if you’re making Model 3s.
 
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Here in California, the date of registration is the day the vehicle is bought. DMV may not get around to actually issuing the registration for a month or two.
 
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