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Will the 2018 Nissan Leaf...

  • hurt Bolt sales?

    Votes: 6 14.3%
  • make no difference to Bolt sales?

    Votes: 14 33.3%
  • help Bolt sales?

    Votes: 22 52.4%

  • Total voters
    42
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Discussion Starter #1
I figure since we had a successful thread about the upcoming Tesla Model 3 and how it might effect Bolt sales, we ought to have one about the upcoming second gen Nissan Leaf that we are about to know every thing about.

What do you all think? Will the new Leaf hurt Bolt sales, help Bolt sales or really not make any difference? I personally think it will really hurt Bolt sales.
 

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Well if current reports are to be believed it will have a similar range to the Bolt, be cheaper and have a lot of improvements that current Leaf owners have been asking for. I mean until the specs are all final it is hard to do an apples to apples comparison but just the price being lower it is certainly going to have an advantage. They still haven't sold enough Leafs to have the EV tax credit drop down either so that won't help the Bolt right now.

So my early guess is that it hurts Bolt sales as I don't foresee any significant changes to the Bolt for 2018, I could be wrong about that but I doubt it.
 

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Put me down for "helping Bolt sales".

There has been a bunch of hype for the next generation Leaf, with early talk swirling around a 60kWh battery & 200+ mile range. Doesn't look like that will become reality, and likely will be a ~160 mile ranged vehicle (or less) with no thermal management & slower performance instead. Since it will be a new vehicle, discounts will be scarce. In the end, people may be disappointed with the Leaf & turn to the Bolt that includes thermal management, more performance, more range & prices discounted to near Leaf prices. I think it is why Nissan is pushing ProPilot so much, because it will be the only "ace up their sleeve" (if I may borrow the expression).
 

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In the Central Valley with every day in the summer being over 100 degrees you would have to be insane to choose the Leaf over the Bolt. Having no active cooling system for the battery has made Leaf's in my area have horrible battery degradation. However, you will always have the people that love the Leaf and can't wait for it. If the reports are true about the 160 mile range, no active cooling, and not being a zippy car like the Bolt are true I would value the Leaf at about $25,000 compared to the Bolt.
 

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Here is my prediction (we'll see next week at the Las Vegas reveal).

The "leaked" specs were for a Euro version.

The US version will have 200+ miles of range
The US version will have some thermal management, but not as complete as on the Bolt.
US pricing will be on par with the Bolt
The seats will be more comfortable, the ride softer, and a bit more "relaxed" with lower HP.
It will have a NAV system and the ability to connect to CarPlay/Android Auto.
Some features like ACC not available on the Bolt will be available on upper trim levels/option packages.
They will stick with CHAdeMO
It will outsell the Bolt as Nissan dealers have years of experience selling EV's and there will be less resistance. Many Chevy dealers are already backing off from the Bolt as deep discounts are the norm to move units in volume (might start another thread about this one).

We'll never know if it hurts or helps, but more choices in the market = good news for consumers.
 

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I think that Bolt sales will not be affected much as the pluses and minuses are fairly even. What I do see happening (happily) is a greater push for faster infrastructure development and expansion. Leaf buyers are not our enemies. We are in similar, if not the same, boats. Nearly ALL DCFC stations I have seen had both CHAdeMO AND SAE CCS plugs.

We are EV owners first and Bolt owners second, IMHO.
 

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We now know what the Nissan Leaf offers:

40kWh battery, 400KM JC08 -- which is likely around 155 miles EPA.
110 kW electric engine
6kW charging "option"
Price starting just under $30k (but with destination charge, probably slightly above)

Overall, I think this makes the Bolt look like a better deal -- especially if you can get some discounts on the Bolt.

The ProPilot features are actually pretty bland (although better than the Bolt) -- single-lane keep assist & dynamic cruise control. Auto-parking apparently won't be available to US markets.
 

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Which means, on the US market the Bolt remains the only sub-$40K, 200++ mi EV, Q.E.D. For at least 6 more months.
 

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Which means, on the US market the Bolt remains the only sub-$40K, 200++ mi EV, Q.E.D. For at least 6 more months.
Make that at least a year.

They are saying late 2018 as a 2019 model for the 60 kWh version.

And the clincher is likely the continued lack of thermal management. Nothing was said about it in any of the announcements, which almost certainly means it ain't a feature. Kind of like the info we got on the Bolt and a heat pump. If it was going to have it, you know darn well they'd be talking about it.

No thermal management and sub 200 mile range = help Bolt sales.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
We now know what the Nissan Leaf offers:

40kWh battery, 400KM JC08 -- which is likely around 155 miles EPA.
110 kW electric engine
6kW charging "option"
Price starting just under $30k (but with destination charge, probably slightly above)

Overall, I think this makes the Bolt look like a better deal -- especially if you can get some discounts on the Bolt.

The ProPilot features are actually pretty bland (although better than the Bolt) -- single-lane keep assist & dynamic cruise control. Auto-parking apparently won't be available to US markets.
You do realize there is to be an upscale Leaf with a bigger battery, right? The rumor is, 200+ miles. Smart on Nissan's part. Offer a smaller battery model to clean up on the compliance cars and offer a bigger battery to compete with the Bolt and the Model 3. Of course Chevy could easily do the same. Pretty easy for them to offer a smaller battery in the Bolt.

My predictions are- The new Leaf will have more interior space including cargo and it will have comfortable front seats. It's sometimes good to go second, or even third.
 

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http://insideevs.com/2018-nissan-leaf-debuts-recap-range-specs/







Cargo area is unchanged from the previous model, but the coefficient of drag has improved from an abysmal .32 to almost respectable .28 (unverified).

Smart on Nissan's part. Offer a smaller battery model to clean up on the compliance cars and offer a bigger battery to compete with the Bolt and the Model 3. Of course Chevy could easily do the same. Pretty easy for them to offer a smaller battery in the Bolt.
This is a smart move by Nissan. Offering different battery capacities allows consumers to decide how much battery to buy.
 

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Is e-pedal a thing? (catch the 172 Mile range displayed on the dash in the video?)

The mere fact that the front pages of CNN, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, CNBC, Forbes, etc, are picking up the Leaf 2.x launch today is encouraging. All articles I have read include TM3 and the Bolt in their stories. Hopefully the overall acceptance chasm is now being crossed by the mainstream.

All boats rise with the tide.
 

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The Leaf is sure going to beat the pants off the Bolt when it comes to safety and convenience features. All the safety/collision/auto braking features you have to get the Premier for are going to be standard on the Leaf. The ProPilot feature is nice as well, not true autonomous driving but it will make highway driving and traffic much safer and easier to deal with.

Sadly you still have to wait until the end of 2018 to get the version with the bigger battery.

Hopefully this just means Ford, VW and all the others building EVs follow suit making these safety and convenience features more a norm than a luxury.
 

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This is a smart move by Nissan. Offering different battery capacities allows consumers to decide how much battery to buy.
The thing that will help the Bolt is that the bigger battery will not be available on the 2018. It will be an option on the 2019 and is at least a year away.

There are a lot of extended LEAF lessees that have been waiting to see the specs on the 2018 before making a decision. Many will go to the Bolt for the range alone. Others for the thermal battery management.

The lowest cost LEAF S is tagged with "Limited Availability". CA only? ZEV states only? 3.3 kW charging, no charge cord, no Quick Charge (these 2 are available for $1,590 and upgrade the charger to 6.6 kW).
Not available (even as options):
Nav, heat pump, tech features (Lane assist, blind spot, etc)

If you compare the MSRP for LEAF and Bolt models and configure with heated seats and quick charge (no other options/packages):
S: $32,915
SV: $34,275 (Bolt LT: $38,800)
SL: $37,735 (Bolt Premier: $42,530)

"Early 2018" availability is listed on the Nissan site.
 

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This is a smart move by Nissan. Offering different battery capacities allows consumers to decide how much battery to buy.
Let's not romanticize failure. If Nissan had managed to come up with a 60 kWh battery by the launch date, they would be offering both versions right now, so that buyers can decide between a 150-mi and a 200+ - mi Leaf.

I declare the current 2018 Leaf (somewhat) disappointing, moving on to the next 200+ mi EV offering :)
 

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Let's not romanticize failure. If Nissan had managed to come up with a 60 kWh battery by the launch date, they would be offering both versions right now, so that buyers can decide between a 150-mi and a 200+ - mi Leaf.

I declare the current 2018 Leaf (somewhat) disappointing, moving on to the next 200+ mi EV offering :)
Agreed that not having both options available at launch is a failure, but they have priced the Leaf to be the value leader. The Leaf 2.0 is being released below the Leaf 1.x price, which only had about 80 miles of range. Despite that limitation, it's still the most common EV in the world. After $7,500 federal tax credit, the base Leaf 2.0 can be had for around $22,500.

Most people don't need the extra range, and those who do will buy the Bolt (or Volt, or other hybrid). I certainly wouldn't pay for more battery than 150 miles of range if I didn't have to. If I need to travel further, I'm probably on a road trip and will take one of my conventional vehicles. Even if I didn't own a gasser, I'd simply trade with my family or friends for the trip.

Since the Leaf 1.x was the highest selling EV, most of those owners will convert to the 2.0. They have already learned how to live with the limitations of 80 miles of range, so 150 is gravy. The new car looks ok too, so it will appeal to a larger audience than the early adopters.

2017 is the year of the Bolt, but 2018 will be the year of the Model 3 and more distantly, the Leaf. My bet is that 2019 will be the year of a different manufacturer as Nissan, GM, and Tesla credits all expire.
 

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I'm actually starting to like the Leaf's design which might be thanks to the fact they own Infiniti. I can see some of that design DNA going on here. Too bad Chevy didn't have any more Cadillac influence in the Bolt, unless that's leverage they want to save for the mid-cycle refresh.
 
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