[Dan E]

I'm curious what others think the price of the Bolt will do for the 2020 model year after the Government tax incentives are no longer available. ? Do you think the price for the 2020 Bolt will remain the same? Do you think it will decrease by roughly the amount of the tax incentive?

 

[NewsCoulomb]

I think it depends on what they do with the vehicle. If they upgrade the battery and charging, I could see the MSRP staying the same. If they don't do anything significant, I see the MSRP being reduced by about $4,000.

 

[redpoint5]

Manufacturers seem to not be motivated much by the credit, so I expect it to be a non-factor. The Bolt is not profitable now, so if there are cost savings found in manufacturing, they will keep the price the same and finally turn a profit.

 

[max]

They are not advertising / trying to make efforts to sell them at all today.
What makes any of you think they will shave more cost off?
There is already a healthy discounting margin and they continue to sell at a pace GM is comfortable with.

 

[NewsCoulomb]

They are not advertising / trying to make efforts to sell them at all today.
What makes any of you think they will shave more cost off?
There is already a healthy discounting margin and they continue to sell at a pace GM is comfortable with.

Because of historical precedent. GM is fully aware that their plug-in vehicles are more expensive than the average car buyer will spend, so as they improve efficiencies and reduce production costs, they lower the MSRP. They did the same with the Volt, which started out as a $40,000 car and was quickly reduced to a $34,000 car.

Right now, they are already doing a "soft" reduction of the Bolt EV's MSRP through rebates, so it's simply a matter of making it a permanent reduction in MSRP.

 

[Nook]

Because of historical precedent. GM is fully aware that their plug-in vehicles are more expensive than the average car buyer will spend, so as they improve efficiencies and reduce production costs, they lower the MSRP. They did the same with the Volt, which started out as a $40,000 car and was quickly reduced to a $34,000 car.

Right now, they are already doing a "soft" reduction of the Bolt EV's MSRP through rebates, so it's simply a matter of making it a permanent reduction in MSRP.

Yes, but if you compare to pickups, sale prices have about double the difference off MSRP, meaning 8-16k off is fairly typical, and that's on the still a truck version. If you look at the gussied up version, I believe the discounts are higher, but I don't care, because anyone who buys an 80k truck probably doesn't even know where an unpaved road is, much less, ever drives on one (insert scene from Cars movie here).

Some people pay MSRP, so if you reduce it, you're loosing dollars, not just for GM, but for the government, too, as tabs are based on (alleged) value. Insurance, too, often keys off MSRP not real sale price.
I would like to see MSRP reductions, but I expect there will be more rebates, which will likely be spotty.

 

[demart]

They should drop the price, otherwise, it is not very competitive with the 42,900 M3, or with the cheaper standard M3 that is supposed to come out by the end of the year.

 

[redpoint5]

The problem is that people assume historic trends will carry forward indefinitely into the future. They expect this trend to continue:

I assume the Bolt 2.0 will be cheaper to make, but not massively cheaper. That will allow Chevy to make a modest profit at current pricing.

 

[TimBolt]

My Bolt lease will be up in June of 2020. I really like my Bolt, but without the $7500 tax credit it doesn’t seem likely that it will be price competitive versus models that have the full tax credit.

I just don’t see GM offering anything near a $7500 discount on a car that’s already unprofitable.

If GM adds a $7500 discount and sells about 30k Bolts in 2020, that’s a $225 million subsidy.

That’s a pretty big chunk of change, even for GM.

 

[TimBolt]

The problem is that people assume historic trends will carry forward indefinitely into the future. They expect this trend to continue:

I assume the Bolt 2.0 will be cheaper to make, but not massively cheaper. That will allow Chevy to make a modest profit at current pricing.

The second chart shows the Tesla cost for a complete battery pack at around $75/kWh by 2021. Not sure what the source of that cost was, but at only $75/kWh an EV drivetrain gets very close to parity with a comparable ICE vehicle. If true, that’s good news, as most estimates put the cost parity timeline at around 2025, not 2021.

 

[redpoint5]

Agreed. We will get there, but I don't think we'll see significant price reductions until manufacturers make a reasonable profit. Maybe 2025, but I'm doubting by 2022.

 

[NewsCoulomb]

The problem is that people assume historic trends will carry forward indefinitely into the future. They expect this trend to continue:

I assume the Bolt 2.0 will be cheaper to make, but not massively cheaper. That will allow Chevy to make a modest profit at current pricing.

First, I don't think the Bolt EV's price reduction will come as a result of the battery costs, though that could be part of it if a bulk of the cells are produced at Holland, MI moving forward. I think the main cost reductions for the Bolt EV will come from supply chains as the power electronics start to be produced at Hazel Park, MI.

Another point to consider is that we have a new CARB state (Colorado), and ZEV credits will no longer "travel." That effectively doubles the number of ZEVs that traditional automakers will need to sell. And that nearly doubles the number of Bolt EVs that GM can sell for a high margins and/or discounted rates.

As for the chart you posted: I do have one issue with comparing Tesla's battery costs to the average cost of other EVs. Most of the other EVs are shorter range with higher power-density batteries, so they are, by default, going to be more expensive per kWh. Comparing Tesla's battery costs to the newer generation of long-range EVs with high energy density batteries might be more appropriate.