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Discussion Starter #1
With the numbers released so far, it looks like the number of EV's sold in 2017 will be over 200,000. That is from 158,000 in 2016. The only other numbers that were released were 1,937 Volts were sold which makes 5,164 plug-ins sold this year, the Model X and Y both had more sales than the Bolt, and I saw from the insideEV comments that GM will sell 5000 Bolts to Korea.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2017/12/419_241598.html

With the 2018 Nissan Leaf, other EV's expected to be released this year, and the Model 3 we should see 400,000 EV's sold in the US this year. Once exponential growth starts it will be hard to stop the takeover of EV's even without the tax credit. Prices will fall with technology advances and manufacturing.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
From the numbers it looks like it will be a little short of the 200,000 mark, but will be close. It will be interesting to see if the Model 3 pushed out 2000 cars in December.
 

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From the numbers it looks like it will be a little short of the 200,000 mark, but will be close. It will be interesting to see if the Model 3 pushed out 2000 cars in December.
What is the expression? A snowball's chance? Think the headline should read, "Bolt outsells all plug-in hybrids, and all EV's except those costing twice as much!" This will be the Bolt's last hurray, unless Musk is totally incompetent. Starting in January it should be Model 3 news 24/7/365.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Unfortunately I think the 2018 Leaf will sell better than the Bolt, even though the Bolt is IMO a vastly superior car for the money. I saw a Model 3 in LA during Christmas break and it is a beautiful car. It looks even more amazing in person than it does from the videos/pictures. I am even thinking about putting down $1000 for the ability to maybe get a $35,000 model in 2019.
 

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Unfortunately I think the 2018 Leaf will sell better than the Bolt, even though the Bolt is IMO a vastly superior car for the money. I saw a Model 3 in LA during Christmas break and it is a beautiful car. It looks even more amazing in person than it does from the videos/pictures. I am even thinking about putting down $1000 for the ability to maybe get a $35,000 model in 2019.
Not sure about the LEAF....I was all set to get one, sat in one in September....and then the 140 mile EPA range thing got to me.

We loved our 2013 LEAF with 85 mile EPA range for 3.5 years....but we were ready to just....go further.

We put 2200 miles on our Bolt in the first 5 weeks!

Now the 2019 LEAF...that will be a another story...but by then the Bolt will be at 80 kWh.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
Some people decided to get the Bolt over the Leaf because of range and availability, but it probably isn't as much as people think. The Leaf has a following like the Prius, they fell in love with the car. Repeat buyers are common in the automotive industry. I know Nissan Leaf owners that are waiting only for the 2018 Leaf, even though I let them drive my Bolt and they loved how it drove.
 

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Some people decided to get the Bolt over the Leaf because of range and availability, but it probably isn't as much as people think. The Leaf has a following like the Prius, they fell in love with the car. Repeat buyers are common in the automotive industry. I know Nissan Leaf owners that are waiting only for the 2018 Leaf, even though I let them drive my Bolt and they loved how it drove.

Yes. Nissan is going to make it very attractive, to current Leaf owners, to stay with them.
 

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I was one of them...got a cheap lease extension, promised a free AppleWatch, a test drive at my home....

and I got the Bolt anyways. :nerd:
I'm with you. I would love to see the Bolt outsell everything other EV. But I suspect the new Leaf will do pretty well.
 

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The December Bolt sales number is disappointing. I would have expected a bigger jump because of the uncertainty over the $7500 federal tax credit being available in 2018.

While still an increase, it’s only a couple of hundred units more than November sales.

There have been anecdotal reports of shortages in certain markets, so maybe GM has throttled back production.

No Tesla Model 3 number yet, but they did release Model S and X sales numbers, both are big jumps from November. Tesla does play games with their sales numbers, and only quarterly numbers are official, but the contrast to the relatively anemic Bolt sales is stark.
 

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Just to clarify the games Tesla plays with their sales number, the first month or so of a quarter they ship more units out of the country as they don't count a sale until transfer of title. Anything in-transit is not counted until titled. This is intended to balance the quarter so that most of the cars built in any quarter will count in that quarter. You will always notice that the first month of a quarter is the weakest in sales and the last month is the strongest.
http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1053245
 

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I expect the headlines for January sales to be, "Tesla Model 3 best selling plugin!!! Sales for everything else will be back down.
 

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I was one of them...got a cheap lease extension, promised a free AppleWatch, a test drive at my home....

Most Bolt owners, despite the range, charge only from home, and rarely (if ever) drive more than 60 miles in a day. MOST people are using it as a commuter (and not a traveling) car. This is especially true in states with little to no DCFC. If you are in that category, ask yourself how much your driving would be hindered by having only an EPA 150 mile range, instead of 238 miles. This will not phase most EV drivers, and at a MUCH lower cost, the Leaf is the more attractive alternative. Second question: How many current Bolt owners will sell their Bolt (even if <3 years old) to get an 80 kWh battery? I doubt many. I wonder which features would induce current Bolt owners to upgrade. Maybe adaptive CC AND an 80 kWh battery?
 

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Most Bolt owners, despite the range, charge only from home, and rarely (if ever) drive more than 60 miles in a day. MOST people are using it as a commuter (and not a traveling) car. This is especially true in states with little to no DCFC. If you are in that category, ask yourself how much your driving would be hindered by having only an EPA 150 mile range, instead of 238 miles. This will not phase most EV drivers, and at a MUCH lower cost, the Leaf is the more attractive alternative. Second question: How many current Bolt owners will sell their Bolt (even if <3 years old) to get an 80 kWh battery? I doubt many. I wonder which features would induce current Bolt owners to upgrade. Maybe adaptive CC AND an 80 kWh battery?
An EV with only 150 miles of range wouldn't work for me, especially considering that 150 miles can easily become only 100 miles in cold weather, like we're having now all over the country.

As for trading up, like 80% of Bolt drivers, I'm leasing, so that 80kw battery in 2020 sounds pretty good to me.
 

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I expect the headlines for January sales to be, "Tesla Model 3 best selling plugin!!! Sales for everything else will be back down.
Exactly, 5000 per week vs. 3000 per month isn't even close.
 

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So at 5000 TM3's a week when does Tesla run out of tax credits?
 

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So at 5000 TM3's a week when does Tesla run out of tax credits?
They most likely will not:
1. crank out 5k/week for a few months
2. cross the 200k US registered cars till Q2
if #2 comes true, the full credit will be cut in half for cars registered after 10/1/18, then cut in half again 4/1/19. Probably about the same as GM.
 
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