Tesla may be sitting on hundreds of thousands of pre-orders but, Kelly Blue Book analyst Karl Brauer predicts that Chevy will sell around 30,000 to 80,000 Bolt EVs in the first year.
Set to go on sale late 2016, the 200+ mile EV will be available nationwide early 2017 while the Tesla Model 3 could make an appearance in 2018 or later even though it’s slated to go on sale late 2017. That’s ample time for Chevy to draw in those who have already put down a deposit for a Model 3 and Brauer thinks Chevy can easily convince 10% of those buyers to switch over to the Bolt EV.
Last we heard, Tesla has almost 400,000 pre-orders and 10% of that is 40,000. That already surpasses the lower end of Brauer’s estimate and in the first year alone. If the standard Bolt EV is well specced, we could see more than 10% of Model 3 place-holders jump ship.
One hurdle GM will need to overcome if they want the Bolt EV to sell well are their dealerships. If they want the Bolt EV to do well then the salespeople needs to be on board and well educated on the product. Selling an electric vehicle takes more time to discuss with a potential buyer and the salesperson could have sold more than one ICE unit in the same amount of time.
Chevrolet has not yet released their own sales prediction for the Bolt EV so we’ll just have to wait and see if Brauer’s prediction will come true.