[Chevy Bolt News]

Tesla may be sitting on hundreds of thousands of pre-orders but, Kelly Blue Book analyst Karl Brauer predicts that Chevy will sell around 30,000 to 80,000 Bolt EVs in the first year.

Set to go on sale late 2016, the 200+ mile EV will be available nationwide early 2017 while the Tesla Model 3 could make an appearance in 2018 or later even though it’s slated to go on sale late 2017. That’s ample time for Chevy to draw in those who have already put down a deposit for a Model 3 and Brauer thinks Chevy can easily convince 10% of those buyers to switch over to the Bolt EV.

Last we heard, Tesla has almost 400,000 pre-orders and 10% of that is 40,000. That already surpasses the lower end of Brauer’s estimate and in the first year alone. If the standard Bolt EV is well specced, we could see more than 10% of Model 3 place-holders jump ship.

One hurdle GM will need to overcome if they want the Bolt EV to sell well are their dealerships. If they want the Bolt EV to do well then the salespeople needs to be on board and well educated on the product. Selling an electric vehicle takes more time to discuss with a potential buyer and the salesperson could have sold more than one ICE unit in the same amount of time.

Chevrolet has not yet released their own sales prediction for the Bolt EV so we’ll just have to wait and see if Brauer’s prediction will come true.

 

[LightningBolt]

Yea, I've heard stories of salespeople giving Volt and Leaf buyers a hard time and the buyers seem to be more informed than they are. Chevy needs to give dealerships incentives of some kind to sell these since they end up loosing out on the service revenue they would get from ICE vehicles.

Those of us on forums like these or those who keep up with the news will be well informed but not every buyer will make the effort to do so and Chevy may lose those sales.

 

[Bazinga]

To date, Chevy has sold 94,720 Volts in America. If they do manage to sell the full 80,000 units in the first year, then that would mean those who wait to get theirs in the second year may not get the full federal tax credits.

May be a good idea to keep our eyes on when the ordering book opens.

 

[Raymondjram]

To date, Chevy has sold 94,720 Volts in America. If they do manage to sell the full 80,000 units in the first year, then that would mean those who wait to get theirs in the second year may not get the full federal tax credits.

May be a good idea to keep our eyes on when the ordering book opens.

Not everyone who buys an EV will either apply or qualify for that credit. For example, I don't because I never have to pay Federal taxes. And some States do offer incentives for EV buyers, too.

But if Trump becomes President, we may see that tax credit to disappear in 2017, way before the TM Model 3 begins production, so more of those who put up a deposit will be canceling those orders (unless Musk visits Trump and prevents that somehow).

 

[Raymondjram]

Yea, I've heard stories of salespeople giving Volt and Leaf buyers a hard time and the buyers seem to be more informed than they are. Chevy needs to give dealerships incentives of some kind to sell these since they end up loosing out on the service revenue they would get from ICE vehicles.

That is a dealer issue, but my local GM dealer isn't of that group. They WANT to sell the Volt and the Bolt EV, but GM won't allow them.

 

[Roth33d]

That is almost always the case with dealerships, front line employee's typically don't know much, we can better inform ourselves doing our own research. Plus you have to factor in their motivations for interacting with you and giving the response they have.

 

[mbepic]

That is a dealer issue, but my local GM dealer isn't of that group. They WANT to sell the Volt and the Bolt EV, but GM won't allow them.

Have to ask you why GM won't allow them to sell EVs?

 

[Roth33d]

That is the weirdest thing i've heard but I guess we can just see it as growing pains, soon enough it will be easier than ever to get your hands on a GM EV. Best thing to do is get yourself on a contact list.

 

[DucRider]

It's a little misleading in that GM is not refusing to let his specific dealer sell the Volt/Bolt. He is in a market where GM is not offering any of the electric vehicles (Spark EV/Volt/Bolt) at all. I don't know if they deem Puerto Rico too small a market, sales there don't count for CAFE standards, local government makes it more difficult to bring them in, or a combination of factors. I gotta believe if GM thought there was profit to be made, they'd be sold there.

.

 

[Raymondjram]

Have to ask you why GM won't allow them to sell EVs?

It all began many years ago when the local Puerto Rican government created a import tax (tariff) on all vehicles because we have no manufacturing, so all cars are "imported".

The rate is proportional to the factory cost, so cars with a cost over $40,000 pay the top rate (almost 30%), or an additional $12,000. That affected possible sales of the 2011 Chevy Volt which was beginning in 2010 at that price. The regional GM office (which manages sales and services in the Caribbean area) saw the high price and determined that sales would be too low to justify the training of Volt techs, so they told the local GM dealers that they can sell any GM vehicle (inclusing $80,000 Corvettes and Escalades) but not the Volt (same for the Spark EV later).

in 2014 the Governor signed an ammendment to give a tax rebate for "alternate fuel vehicles" (including hybrids) according to a time schedule. The law allowed a tax rebate of up to 50% for hybrids (minimum of $2,000), and a full 100% rebate for pure electrics. With that news, BMW and Nissan began selling their BEVs in July 2014 but actual sales can be counted on your fingers!. GM didn't respond to the dealer's request about the rebate.

The tax rebate expires June 30th this year, so we will never get such rebate for the 2017 Chevy Bolt EV. At a published factory price of $37,000, the new tax will add another $11,000, so its basic price will begin at $48,000.

I am willing to pay the full price plus all taxes jsut to get my first BEV. I don't believe in foreign cars (I had two and they were terrible!) , but I do believe in domestics (Ford and GM) and I have own and worked with GM cars since 1976 (and one Ford in 1981) so I will only buy a BEV from them.

As an ironic note, the only Nissan dealer that sells the Leaf since 2014 (but has sold less than five) is across the highway from my GM dealer. Every time I visit the GM dealer, I see two Leafs across the highway at the other deler's lot.

 

[DucRider]

After a little research, I'm not surprised at the slow adoption of EV's in PR.
With expensive (relatively) and dirty (once again, relatively) electricity, both the environmental and economic advantages of EV's are reduced.
From what I can tell, electricity is about $.24-.26 per kWh.

And, unfortunately, electricity generation in Puerto Rico is:
Heavy Fuel Oil/Diesel 77%
Natural Gas 9%
Coal 8%
Solar/wind 3%
Hydro 3%

Time for some solar panels on your roof?

 

[Roth33d]

I think it has also part to do with governments since they have some influence, they are needed for infrastructure and even funding. The whole buying incentive part was part of it.

 

[LightningBolt]

That's going to be a huge cost that most people won't want to take on.
There's the tariff on top of the MSRP for the Bolt and then you'll need to install your own solar panels unless you want to charge using the PR power grid.

Would be great if the gov't did away with the tariff for electric vehicles only instead of handing out incentives but that's highly unlikely to happen.

 

[Raymondjram]

After a little research, I'm not surprised at the slow adoption of EV's in PR.
With expensive (relatively) and dirty (once again, relatively) electricity, both the environmental and economic advantages of EV's are reduced.
From what I can tell, electricity is about $.24-.26 per kWh.

And, unfortunately, electricity generation in Puerto Rico is:
Heavy Fuel Oil/Diesel 77%
Natural Gas 9%
Coal 8%
Solar/wind 3%
Hydro 3%

Time for some solar panels on your roof?

Maybe, but the amount of "dirt" frm the electricity will never reach the levels that gas engines put out in tons of CO2 and other contaminants every day. BTW, the energy of a simple BEV is equal to the energy consumed by an electric stove every day, or a window A/C unit every night. No one gets ther energy "piped in" as gasoline, so the same energy that the gasoline industry uses to produce, store, distribute (those trucks use plany of fuel!) and sell ( pumps and gas stations) is more than what an equivalent number of BEVS will consume.

Our total power consumption has dropped (more efficient appliances and lighting) such that our utility has shut down one of the four production sites (presently being refurbished for natural gas), yet it still has excess power to charge thousands of EVs overnight.

Finally, our power rate has dropped. My latest bill (dated May 9th) has a 730 kWh consumption reading for the past month, and for a present rate of $0.111738 per kWh (who gave you that old rate?) I will pay $81.57 for my month. A Bolt EV will add less than 100 kWh of consumption (I travel less than 400 miles a month), so I could pay an additional $12 for the Bolt EV's energy use, or about three cents per mile. No gas engine vehicle can give me 400 miles for just $12!!

 

[Raymondjram]

That's going to be a huge cost that most people won't want to take on.
There's the tariff on top of the MSRP for the Bolt and then you'll need to install your own solar panels unless you want to charge using the PR power grid.

Would be great if the gov't did away with the tariff for electric vehicles only instead of handing out incentives but that's highly unlikely to happen.

The government DID pass an ammendment to return 100% or ALL of the tax on EVs, but it expires June 30th (next month). And the economy has faltered such that I see no future rebate or incentives possible.

The only issue that can still save the BEVs is educating the consumer (or potential buyer) on the future long-term savings in energy cost and maintenance that a BEV has over a gas engine or even a hybrid which still has a gas engine. That issue is what motivates me to buy one. Many will complain about the initial cost for a BEV, but I see many $50,000 or more imports being driven here, and no one complains!

I have serviced cars since 1967 and own them since 1972, so I know firsthand how much it cost in materials, tools, and time to service and repair any gas engine (from a small I4 to a large 400-CI V8), and I do keep my cars running for twenty years or more. Now I want a vehicle that is as simple as a smartphone (just recharge after use) and will give me a much longer life, such that it may be my last vehicle.

 

[Roth33d]

The Canadian government also did the same thing, maybe it's something that a select group of countries are doing? Like a NATO type of group? This just goes to show the inconsistency of them having these credits. Who knows, we might seem them return again, as long as the right motivations are in place.

 

[Bazinga]

It all comes down to informing the potential buyers that electric is the way to go even with the additional tariffs but Chevy needs to motivate their dealerships to do so. The sales guys won't be very happy pushing a product that requires less maintenece than the general ICE vehicle.

 

[husamia]

Will the Bolt have safety autopilot?

 

[LightningBolt]

The kind that shifts you to another lane to avoid a crash? I'm not sure if it comes as an option with the Bolt EV. The Bolt EV will have optional alerts like forward pedestrian alert but I haven't heard of a crash avoidance autopilot.

 

[DucRider]

Will the Bolt have safety autopilot?

"Safety Autopilot" may be an oxymoron
https://youtu.be/qQkx-4pFjus

Tesla has stated that autopilot and adaptive cruise control functioned as designed and did not fail.

Autopilot requires that the driver stay just as aware as if he was in control of the car. Seems to me to defeat the whole purpose, plus you have two reaction times to deal with:
1) Recognizing the hazardous situation/condition
2) Recognizing that the autopilot system is not reacting to the above situation