[GJETSON]

According to the Inside EVs figures, this will be the first down month, YOY, for plug-in sales in the US, since May of 2016.

The previous longest stretch was 21 months from January of 2013 through September of 2014.

 

[gaulfinger]

Sad, but it may also be in the face of a larger industry slow-down. Car sales were soft the past couple of months and July may turn out that way, too.

 

[GJETSON]

Yup. The economy is slowing down. I suspect plug-in sales will be off at least until the Model Y comes out, assuming it does. And that depends on how much the economy slows.

 

[redpoint5]

I've expected sales to soften/plummet as incentives expire. Imagine how well the Honda Accord would sell if you could get $7,500-$10,000 back from the purchase? Conversely, imagine how poorly it would sell if it had an additional $10k added to the current sticker price.

As long as fossil fuels are relatively cheap, or as long as batteries are as relatively terrible, EV and PHEVs won't sell in strong numbers.

I also heard someone speak of there being an auto loan bubble, and they anticipate that to burst resulting in a sharp decline in new car sales, increase in repossession, and a drop in used car values, with that also coinciding with a declining economy.

That said, it still disappoints me to hear the news. I'd much prefer to see evidence that we're nearing the "tipping point" where EVs take off and ICE falls off.

 

[SparkE]

Forget trying to figure out why - it's obvious: it's all about Tesla. There are (generally) more Teslas sold in the U.S. than the sum of ALL other EVs added together. So when Tesla sales are down, it really, really drags down the U.S. EV sales (esp. when Model 3 sales dip, since there are so many of them).

This was the first month of the quarter, and for business reasons a BUNCH of Teslas sold are being shipped/sold overseas (since sales count only when they are in the hands of their buyers, at the beginning of the quarter Tesla ships a BUNCH of vehicles overseas, so that the shipping delay doesn't drag down its quarterly sales. In contrast, the LAST month of the quarter will have increased U.S. sales, since the cars don't have as far to travel.) The lower shipments to US customers will probably continue into Aug sales as well. There is a HUGE pent-up demand for Tesla vehicles outside of the U.S. that needs to be filled.

Mystery solved.

 

[GJETSON]

Yup. Tesla is now 57% of all plug-ins sold in the US. Governments in Europe have been using carrots, and are now talking sticks...ending/curtailing ICE sales. Same for China. Sales here would probably still be going up, if the Dems had won big in 2016.

 

[redpoint5]

You think EV sales would be much different if Dems occupied more political offices?

Lets say that 75% of EV "enthusiasts" identify with the Democratic party. Something like 1% of people are EV enthusiasts, so what's 75% of 1%?...

The extremists (EV lovers/haters) tend to filter strongly into certain political parties, but most people are indifferent, and that occupies roughly both parties equally.

That isn't to say that Dems wouldn't contribute something towards EV adoption, but not in a significant way. The people as a whole must want them, and the carrots and sticks are a rough reflection of the will of those people.

China has ended the carrots for EVs. We'll see how things go.

The most reasonable way to address rapid consumption of fossil fuels is to progressively tax it. You'd think Dems would be all over that idea. Someone please inform me if a D (or R) has a platform that includes that idea. All else is lip service with the real agenda being the increase of political power.

 

[GJETSON]

You think EV sales would be much different if Dems occupied more political offices?

The people as a whole must want them, and the carrots and sticks are a rough reflection of the will of those people.

I am pretty sure if Dems had a majority of both houses, and the presidency, there would be more carrots, and sticks in place for EVs, and solar right now.. This would most definitely have an effect on EV sales.

Have you forgotten that "the will of the people" elected a Democrat? The electoral college elected Trump.

 

[Dimitrij]

Yup. Tesla is now 57% of all plug-ins sold in the US. Governments in Europe have been using carrots, and are now talking sticks...ending/curtailing ICE sales. Same for China. Sales here would probably still be going up, if the Dems had won big in 2016.

Yup, that's what I was saying in another thread - the "incentives", unless brief and sharply targeted, only coerce manufacturers into making unprofitable and undesirable products, and the consumers - into buying them. Since this travesty is not really sustainable, "the Socialists will eventually run out of other people's money" (as Lady Thatcher could have said back in her day), so the sticks have come out - which is only a few steps from the Soviet- or the Third Reich fakeonomy.

 

[GJETSON]

How 'bout dem Bears?

 

[micantony]

PR and marketing are a big deal. Other than Tesla, no one is really pushing EV's anywhere except on these forum's and probably out west. It will change eventually, but right now I don't think dealers want to give up their revenues from the service department. In turn, the manufacturer's aren't pushing them very hard PR/marketing wise yet. I live in the southeast and have never seen a commercial for a Chevy Bolt. My now retired Mom lived in California and was hyping them up when they came out; That's the only reason I knew a thing about them. I had heard of the Leaf's here in Atlanta which sold well when the State was giving $5,000 rebates a few years ago (since retracted b/c of the whiners).
I don't think most Americans even know how cool these things are. Anyway, just my thoughts.
We need more PR across the board about how great these are as commuter cars and the sales will follow quickly.

 

[Dimitrij]

How 'bout dem Bears?

Uncle Axel is asking in a changing voice to thaw the frikadellen. The fourth carnation has dew drops.

 

[Dimitrij]

PR is a big deal. Other than Tesla, no one is really pushing EV's anywhere except on these forum's and probably out west. It will change eventually, but right now I don't think dealers want to give up their revenues from the service department. In turn, the manufacturer's aren't pushing them very hard PR wise yet. I live in the southeast and have never seen a commercial for a Chevy Bolt. My now retired Mom lived in California and was hyping them up when they came out; That's the only reason I knew a thing about them. I had heard of the Leaf's here in Atlanta which sold well when the State was giving $5,000 rebates a few years ago (since retracted b/c of the whiners).
I don't think most Americans even know how cool these things are. Anyway, just my thoughts.
We need more PR across the board about how great these are as commuter cars and the sales will follow quickly.

I think it might help if car manufacturers bothered to make EV's that everyday drivers would find desirable and suitable for their various needs. They could start with providing some real choice, e.g. 2-3 different sizes, an AWD option, a short-medium-long range battery option ... they could invest into a nation-wide L3 charging infrastructure ... oh wait, Tesla is already doing all these ... oh wait, and they are selling a lot of EV's, and they have hundreds of thousands of people who advertise for them at no cost to Tesla

 

[SparkE]

And here we go off driving into left field again. There's plenty of room for political threads over in the "Off-topic section".

 

[SparkE]

Heck, I found the advert for Dumpling Depot : "We Serve Delicious Handmade Soup Dumplings and Noodles. Order Now" more interesting than the political crap posted on this thread.

 

[redpoint5]

I am pretty sure if Dems had a majority of both houses, and the presidency, there would be more carrots, and sticks in place for EVs, and solar right now.. This would most definitely have an effect on EV sales.

Have you forgotten that "the will of the people" elected a Democrat? The electoral college elected Trump.

... which is why I say it "roughly reflects the will of the people". We don't have a perfect system, and I'm willing to go with a popular vote over electoral college... it won't change the outcome much over time. The ascendance of the right is a reaction to the sins of the left... and the ascendance of the left is a reaction to the sins of the right.

Regarding politics, this thread was always political. Subsidy has a huge influence on EV sales, and that is politically motivated. If you're interested in why EV sales are down, you're interested in the politics of why.

I might appear to some as anti-EV, but they would be mistaken. It's like having a favorite basketball team that starts each game with 20 extra points, but still manages to lose. I want my basketball team to start with the same score even if that involves losing by a lot more, until they up their game to where they can compete and eventually dominate.

 

[Dimitrij]

... which is why I say it "roughly reflects the will of the people". We don't have a perfect system, and I'm willing to go with a popular vote over electoral college... it won't change the outcome much over time. The ascendance of the right is a reaction to the sins of the left... and the ascendance of the left is a reaction to the sins of the right.

Regarding politics, this thread was always political. Subsidy has a huge influence on EV sales, and that is politically motivated. If you're interested in why EV sales are down, you're interested in the politics of why.

I might appear to some as anti-EV, but they would be mistaken. It's like having a favorite basketball team that starts each game with 20 extra points, but still manages to lose. I want my basketball team to start with the same score even if that involves losing by a lot more, until they up their game to where they can compete and eventually dominate.

Had the governments truly wanted to accelerate the EV, they would do what commercial entities do in such situations: invest into R&D and infrastructure. Instead, they are promoting mediocrity over merit.

 

[GJETSON]

Anything that effects millions of people, and the fortunes of all, is inherently political. For the sake of comity, I'll try to pretend that putting an electric motor in a car is some sort of hobby activity, and ignore the actual reasons and ramifications.

 

[surgeonFWW]

I've expected sales to soften/plummet as incentives expire. Imagine how well the Honda Accord would sell if you could get $7,500-$10,000 back from the purchase? Conversely, imagine how poorly it would sell if it had an additional $10k added to the current sticker price.

I agree whole-heartedly. We kept listing "price after tax credit" as if that was the full "price". Now that the Tesla and (very soon) the Bolt EV tax credits are gone, the price seems to have jumped $7500. Some buyers are turned off completely, and some are waiting to see if the credit will be reinstated.

 

[XJ12]

although there's been news of increase in sales of Bolts compared to other quarters.

In the United States, Chevrolet Bolt EV deliveries totaled 3,965 units in Q2 2019, an increase of about 14 percent compared to 3,483 units sold in Q2 2018.

Chevrolet Bolt EV Sales Increase 14 Percent To 3,965 Units In Q2 2019

Sales increased 5 percent to 8,281 units during the first six months of 2019.

gmauthority.com