It could, based on my hypothetical example I gave in that post.That hypothetical does not apply to the situation at hand.
Not saying it does, hence the word hypothetical, but it could...But, if (and this is purely hypothetical) LG says, we can guarantee that we have fixed one of the two issues. But the other one would require a design change, so we can't get to that one for this series of batteries. That said, with the one fixed, we have addressed the fire issues..
If LG said that and for the sake of this hypothetical, it was true, I could see GM going with that...
If there is a defect that doesn't affect performance and isn't a fire risk, is that a problem?
And LG had proven itself as a supplier of reliable and safe battery packs over the 9 year run of Volts. Perhaps GM could have done a better job of overseeing LG's production, and they certainly will going forward.GM is not the only auto manufacturer to outsource it's batteries. In fact Tesla is more of an outlier handling this internally. It's great that so far it seems to have worked well for Tesla, but GM is not grossly negligent by deciding to buy batteries rather than produce them.
We're all frustrated by the situation, but we need to maintain perspective.
Wouldn't the odds go up? One more fire (lets say 21 now instead of 20), and 139,999 bolts left out of 140,000 yesterday?Counting cards works differently. The makeup of the deck changes as each card is revealed. In contrast, each Bolt is independent from all others. As fires happen, our understanding of the chances may change, but the actual chance of each car to catch fire does not change.
Your are right, OLD car makers have forgotten to on how to make cars. They are now marketing departments withGM is not the only auto manufacturer to outsource it's batteries.
The observed incidence of fires does go up from 20/140000 to 21/139999 like you said. But I’m assuming that there is some underlying (and unknown) risk/defect rate/chance that determines how likely a Bolt is to catch fire. This underlying fact may vary by model year, battery origin, usage history, phase of the moon, whatever. We can use information about the fires that happen to try and better learn what the real chance of fire is. If we keep seeing more fires, it’s reasonable to keep adjusting our understanding of the risk upwards.Wouldn't the odds go up? One more fire (lets say 21 now instead of 20), and 139,999 bolts left out of 140,000 yesterday?
21/139,999 is greater than 20/140,000.
But maybe this is like the Monty Hall puzzle and I'm a dodo!
If there were 140K Bolts before, and one is totaled in a fire, the total number of Bolts is still 140k, though one less is on the roads.The observed incidence of fires does go up from 20/140000 to 21/139999 like you said.
I think it's more than that. Tesla has the advantage of being a new company focused solely on electric cars. Battery production in house makes a lot of sense for that business model. Other manufacturers, GM included, have more varied products to maintain and they can't simply cut off funding for ICE cars to focus on electrics. So outsourcing parts of the car that don't feel they can invest in producing makes sense. GM is still making great cars, so I think their engineering is sound.Your are right, OLD car makers have forgotten to on how to make cars. They are now marketing departments with
the actual car guys being thought of as a painful necessity. Why is GM scrambling? This issue has been around for more than a year. Suddenly they are trying to figure out how the batteries they bought work and why they fail. What's changed?
The "observed" odds goes up but the unknown, underlying odds remain the same. As more fires are observed, those odds get closer to the underlying odds. So if you assume that there will be at least one additional fire in the future, the real, underlying odds are always greater than the observed odds.Yes, odds go up with each additional fire occurrence
Agreed!If there were 140K Bolts before, and one is totaled in a fire, the total number of Bolts is still 140k, though one less is on the roads.
Not just higher for the 2019 model year with batteries made in Korea, but very much higher. That particular group represents roughly 50-60% of all fires but roughly 10% of all Bolts. (We still don't know if this one had a battery made in Korea.)...As much as I like poking at various scenarios, I think the best I'll be able to get to is that the risk is low.
It is also higher for the 2019 model year...
A few weeks ago I managed to get my bolt hung up on a curb (I should not be permitted to drive at night, in the rain). Called AAA. The tow truck guy showed up and hooked a strap through one of the rear wheels, and used that to pull the car off the curb. Wow; I would not have thought that was a thing one should do. But I'm pretty sure guys who do this sort of thing for a living know what they are doing.Right - while they won't crawl under an active EV fire to hook something to the frame and they won't fish around in the trunk for a tow eye to install they might be able to hook onto the tow eye if it's already installed. It's cheap and easy extra insurance for your house. You will get questions on WTF is that thing for?
I don't think they have verifiable good packs to replace them with, and November isn't that far away...GM is still not replacing the defective battery packs, which made the Bolt EV catch fire multiple times. GM does not expect to do that before November,
Assuming LG now has verified good battery cells, the cells still have to be packaged into the modules, wired together into a string, and assembled with the rest of the BMS electronics into a battery pack ready to ship to GM. This will require many weeks as the batteries have to be shipped by ocean freight from Korea or ground trucking in USA.I don't think they have verifiable good packs to replace them with, and November isn't that far away...
Even if LG popped up tomorrow and said, "Hey! These are safe!" it's conceivable that GM wants some time to validate that and prepare...
I have been catching up on these threads on an idle rainy day -- was away doing other stuff much of the summer so I missed a lot of the hoopla and have come back to an altered discussion group! This is one of the most useful comments (imho) so far. If 50-60% of fails are happening in 10% of the total Bolt population than that is indeed significant.Not just higher for the 2019 model year with batteries made in Korea, but very much higher. That particular group represents roughly 50-60% of all fires but roughly 10% of all Bolts. (We still don't know if this one had a battery made in Korea.)