But that isn't how statistics actually works and you aren't counting unknown variables.
If it has happened 7 times so far out of 59,000 vehicles, that doesn't mean the odds are 7 out of 59,000.
I'll freely admit I'm not a statistician. I am planning to buy a lottery ticket, after all.
That being said, I'm looking at this like epidemiology - 7 cases out of 59,000 possible cases. The advantage of epidemiology is that you don't have to define all the pathways and causes - you look at the overall outcome. Having said that, with such a low number of cases, you are correct in that we can't say that the probability is exactly 7 out of 59,000 with a high degree of confidence. When something occurs rarely (like a rare cancer), the confidence interval will be large. However, it's still a rare cancer.
And that isn't the end either. What if it turns out that it is also tied to how people have charged? Then, if your charging pattern matches the triggers, then your odds will be much higher.
I think that's a fair concern, but I don't think your odds will be much higher, because it's still actually dependent on you having the defect combined with having a rare charging behavior.
In the NHTSA recall documents, GM / LG have estimated about 1% of the vehicles have the battery defect. That's roughly 590 Bolts. So right there, you have to assume you got one of the unlucky 590 out of 59,000 Bolts. But we haven't seen 590 fires - we've only seen 7. Let's pretend that a particular charging behavior, in combination with the defect, caused the 7 fires. That means those 7 owners did something that the other 583 owners did not - their charging behavior is something only 1 out of 84 owners do.
So if you want to reduce your risk, charge the way most Bolt owners charge. Don't do weird things that only 1 out of 84 Bolt owners do.
If your charging behavior is rare - like 1 out of 84 rare, AND you have the rare defect, like 1 out of 100 rare, then you may get a fire. But your overall risk - the combination of those factors - is still low, like a rare cancer.
Odds of winning jackpot is tiny and so is odds of fire. I guess one should go buy a lotto ticket. If one were lucky, one would win both. Car fire would be covered by insurance. Lotto win is yours to keep.
To be fair, the probability of a Bolt fire is much, much higher than the probability of winning the lottery. If the risk was literally like winning the lottery, there wouldn't be a recall at all.
This is a serious problem that NHTSA and GM absolutely should address, just like the medical community absolutely should address rare cancers. It's just that as an individual, we shouldn't go crazy worrying about our personal risk of a Bolt fire, just like we shouldn't worry about getting a rare cancer. Take some common sense measures - like those recommended by GM and your doctor - and let yourself go to sleep at night.