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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
The Aug 2018 EV sales numbers have started trickling in:

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla sold an estimated 17800 model 3 sedans in the U.S. in July, apparently. (Remember, Estimated Sales Numbers – "will be reconciled on Quarterly Totals".)

w00t !! (as the kids say)


............................ Jul ........ Aug ............ total (2018)
Tesla Model 3* ... 14250 ... 17800 ... ... ... 55,882
Tesla Model S* .... 1200 ..... 2625 ... ... ... 14,645
Tesla Model X* .... 1325 ..... 2750 ... ... ... 13,600
Chevrolet Bolt ..... 1175 ..... 1225 ... ... ... 10,258
Nissan LEAF ........ 1149 ..... 1315 ... ... ... 9,123
 

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SparkE, thanks for the update and link.

I used this data and other to try to update where GM is on the tax credit phase out. I have included a jpg capture of the spreadsheet. If GM keeps selling at the average rate for 2018, they will hit the 200K in December - 3.88 months from August. If sales slow down only a little, they will make it to 1Q2019 before they hit 200K.

I also checked cars.com this morning to see the US inventory of GM EVs. Based on their inventory, they are only short 1,715 cars to sell 200K. Of course there will be inventory at the end of the year so they will need to manufacture more than this for the US.

Based on the average monthly sales for 2018, there is 2.52 months of Bolt EV inventory. (I think most of it is in california - none here.)
 

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If those Tesla numbers are accurate, then I'm slightly disappointed. If they hit 5k per week in July, August should have produced 20k+. Maybe everyone was taking vacation. Hopefully we see improvement September.

It seems as though Model 3 sales have little impact on sales numbers for other makes. Too soon to conclude Model 3 neither helped, nor hindered, Bolt sales?
 

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If those Tesla numbers are accurate, then I'm slightly disappointed. If they hit 5k per week in July, August should have produced 20k+. Maybe everyone was taking vacation. Hopefully we see improvement September.

It seems as though Model 3 sales have little impact on sales numbers for other makes. Too soon to conclude Model 3 neither helped, nor hindered, Bolt sales?
I think the market for the currently available model 3 is not the same as the current Bolt. It's about a $10k difference and I read that every $5k increase halves the demand. It will likely be another 9-12 months before the average Joe off the street will be able to buy the SR model 3 as there is currently a few 100k probably in the wings. Probably 1/3 of those in the US. This is assuming it's in production early 2019 as currently planned. At that point, unless you have to have a hatchback, I expect Bolt sales to drop significantly.
The lower numbers were a combination of things, the biggest probably the AWD configurations which is all they are making now I think. The RWD only LR is on the back burner till they post a profitable quarter expected in Q3. I would expect them to get back to 5k avg. by end of this month but we shall see. This months bottleneck is back in paint.
What I don't understand is why the Leaf is started to outsell the Bolt. Their January was N/A and they are less than a month behind on totals.
 

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SparkE, thanks for the update and link.

I used this data and other to try to update where GM is on the tax credit phase out. I have included a jpg capture of the spreadsheet. If GM keeps selling at the average rate for 2018, they will hit the 200K in December - 3.88 months from August. If sales slow down only a little, they will make it to 1Q2019 before they hit 200K.

I also checked cars.com this morning to see the US inventory of GM EVs. Based on their inventory, they are only short 1,715 cars to sell 200K. Of course there will be inventory at the end of the year so they will need to manufacture more than this for the US.

Based on the average monthly sales for 2018, there is 2.52 months of Bolt EV inventory. (I think most of it is in california - none here.)
Hmm... this could mean that GM is planning to trigger the phase out the beginning of Q4 2018. That could coincide with the 20% Bolt EV production... and possibly a Q1 2019 release of another EV?

Curiouser and curiouser...
 

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What I don't understand is why the Leaf is started to outsell the Bolt. Their January was N/A and they are less than a month behind on totals.
Sales of the gen I Leaf tanked as gen II approached, and January reflects this. February must have been the release month of gen II, with March being the first full month of Leaf 2.0 sales. My guess anyhow based on recollection of when it was released.

I expect Leaf sales to increase as incentives are offered and marketing goes into full swing, especially when the long range version is offered. Nissan will eat Tesla and GM's cake after federal tax credits expire for the top 2 manufacturers.
 

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Sales of the gen I Leaf tanked as gen II approached, and January reflects this. February must have been the release month of gen II, with March being the first full month of Leaf 2.0 sales. My guess anyhow based on recollection of when it was released.

I expect Leaf sales to increase as incentives are offered and marketing goes into full swing, especially when the long range version is offered. Nissan will eat Tesla and GM's cake after federal tax credits expire for the top 2 manufacturers.
I have to think that Nissan is not far behind on the Fed/Cred expiry date. Maybe a 6 month advantage.
 

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Nissan will eat Tesla and GM's cake after federal tax credits expire for the top 2 manufacturers.
No, Nissan will drop sales as soon as it reaches the same tax limit. And it will never catch up, much less beat Tesla or GM and eat anyone's "cake". The EV buyer first priority is more range and the second is price.
 

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There is a single Chevy Bolt actually on a lot in Richmond, Virginia, one in Norfolk, and half a dozen near DC....none on any other lots.

GM supposedly sold a whopping 1,225 in August. This weekend I will be attending two EV events. Between them we hope to total seven plug-in cars.

Meanwhile Tesla delivered an order of magnitude more Model 3s than any other EV on the market...17,800 Model 3s in August, as their stock price goes in the toilet.
 

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It will likely be another 9-12 months before the average Joe off the street will be able to buy the SR model 3 as there is currently a few 100k probably in the wings. Probably 1/3 of those in the US. This is assuming it's in production early 2019 as currently planned. At that point, unless you have to have a hatchback, I expect Bolt sales to drop significantly.
Is the suggestion that: if / when the cheapo model 3 comes out, that it will displace Bolt sales ?

I don’t think so:

• GM’s Volt has been around since December, 2010. The “carpark” of Volts well exceeds Tesla’s reservation bank of SR M3’s. Volt has been an excellent car right from the get-go. Many Volt owners are Bolt-intenders. It’s much better to have a loyal existing ownership base versus a bunch of folks who’ve subsidized Tesla with a $1,000 reservation,
• Many Leaf owners are also Bolt-intenders,
• M3 and Bolt attract different customers. For M3 it’s about perceived image, zoot and clubbyness. For Bolt it’s about having a small CUV-wagonish 5-door with great handling & features,
• As mentioned, by then there might be a Buick BEV in the mix and who knows what else
 

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There is a single Chevy Bolt actually on a lot in Richmond, Virginia, one in Norfolk, and half a dozen near DC....none on any other lots.

GM supposedly sold a whopping 1,225 in August. This weekend I will be attending two EV events. Between them we hope to total seven plug-in cars.

Meanwhile Tesla delivered an order of magnitude more Model 3s than any other EV on the market...17,800 Model 3s in August, as their stock price goes in the toilet.
I drove by the Tesla factory lot the other day, and there wasn't a single Model 3 actually for sale. What's the deal? They supposedly sold 17,800 in August, yet I can't find a single one for sale.
 

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There is a single Chevy Bolt actually on a lot in Richmond, Virginia, one in Norfolk, and half a dozen near DC....none on any other lots.
That's not a lot :)

GM supposedly sold a whopping 1,225 in August. This weekend I will be attending two EV events. Between them we hope to total seven plug-in cars.
Harrisonburg and Waynesboro, I presume?

Meanwhile Tesla delivered an order of magnitude more Model 3s than any other EV on the market...17,800 Model 3s in August, as their stock price goes in the toilet.
An interesting byproduct of the rEVolution may be the rEVelation that many enthusiasts of the German luxury cars brands are likely to experience in the next few years: their ultimate driving machines are indeed the ultimate - that is, literally, last - evolution stage of the self-propelled carriage, powered by a fossil fuel heat engine.

Pretty much like the glorious DC-7 and Super Constellation piston planes were in the late 1950's.

I know nearly not enough about stock market, but it would appear that TSLA stock as of now is more for gamblers and speculators rather than retirement investment.
 

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I'm finding it interesting that the Volt is outselling the BoltEV this year month/month consistently.

I'm relying on the Insideevs.com website and follow that on a daily basis. So their monthly car sales estimates for this year between the Volt / BoltEV surprise me after the pretty strong showing that the BoltEV had; it was even speculated last year that the Volt may be on its way out.

And it was presumed that pure EV sales were poaching PHEV sales where PHEV owners coming off lease were going for the BEV and PHEV sales were dropping last year. Fast forward to this year ... a surprising turn around.

PHEVs (add in the new Prius Plug-in; which for the life of me I can't figure why someone would prefer this over the Volt) sales seem to be taking off! (This is probably its own discussion thread).

Ok so on the positive side, this may indicate that a lot more ICE drivers are truly warming up to the idea of having a battery car, but still want to maintain some security with the "old world". Has this transition begun in earnest? I don't know.
 

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Is the suggestion that: if / when the cheapo model 3 comes out, that it will displace Bolt sales ?

I don’t think so:

• GM’s Volt has been around since December, 2010. The “carpark” of Volts well exceeds Tesla’s reservation bank of SR M3’s. Volt has been an excellent car right from the get-go. Many Volt owners are Bolt-intenders. It’s much better to have a loyal existing ownership base versus a bunch of folks who’ve subsidized Tesla with a $1,000 reservation,
• Many Leaf owners are also Bolt-intenders,
• M3 and Bolt attract different customers. For M3 it’s about perceived image, zoot and clubbyness. For Bolt it’s about having a small CUV-wagonish 5-door with great handling & features,
• As mentioned, by then there might be a Buick BEV in the mix and who knows what else
When the model 3 SR is open to configure to non-reservationist, it will decimate the Bolt sales. As I mentioned, unless the CUV is mandatory, or you despise the design language, and the price is similar, why would you buy the bolt? The range and storage are comparable and the Tesla doesn't have a 100 mile tether for the less adventurous. Image, zoot and clubbyness has nothing to do with it's success. It's just a great car.
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/0...-sales-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/
And you can customize it with some of the features people here have been asking for.
Luxury
Range
Fast charging
AWD
Towing
Performance
OTA upgrades
Autonomy
Robust/reliable/available charging network
Google maps
The Volt is a hybrid, not sure why you brought that into the conversation. Brand loyalty is certainly a "thing" which all legacy automakers are counting on. The hope is that they will still sell the loyal their next car, it may not be an ICEV but at least they kept them in the fold. Unfortunately, they take a huge hit on margins with an EV.
"It’s much better to have a loyal existing ownership base versus a bunch of folks who’ve subsidized Tesla with a $1,000 reservation,"
What does this even mean? Are you implying that Tesla does not have a loyal following? That current Tesla owners will probably bail.
Not bloody likely.
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...mer-reports-customer-satisfaction-index-again
https://insideevs.com/consumer-reports-tesla-model-s-rated-1-in-customer-satisfaction/
https://techcrunch.com/2016/12/22/tesla-tops-2016-consumer-reports-customer-satisfaction-survey/
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-customer-satisfaction-20171221-story.html
That's 4 years in a row.
 

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I drove by the Tesla factory lot the other day, and there wasn't a single Model 3 actually for sale. What's the deal? They supposedly sold 17,800 in August, yet I can't find a single one for sale.
You don't buy them at the factory, but I think you knew that. I doubt you can buy the Bolt at the Orion plant either. Not sure what your point is. Do you question the numbers?
 

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...Tesla delivered an order of magnitude more Model 3s than any other EV on the market...17,800 Model 3s in August, as their stock price goes in the toilet.
The reason their stock price is going down is because it was ridiculously, unrealistically high in the first place. Reality is setting in - I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
The reason their stock price is going down is because it was ridiculously, unrealistically high in the first place. Reality is setting in - I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.
No, the reason their stock price is going down is for the same reason it was so high before : Elon Musk. He's just done too many BatShitCrazy stuff recently. If he'd just shut up ...
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
The EV buyer first priority is more range and the second is price.
Nope - everybody is different - and that isn't true for me at any rate. I don't need 250 miles of range. In fact, I don't need 150 miles of range (although I wouldn't spit on it) - my family could easily get by most days with 100-120 miles of range in the EVs.
 
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