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Impressive! This helps a lot with them justifying doing more things and that might be why we seen them show off the self driving versions so soon. I was surprised by how quick they were to show them. Makes you wonder whats next.
 

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True, but 1% of sales (for example) is only seven doublings from 100%. This is why analysists pay such attention to growth markets. The only question here is will EV's stall and ICE continue forever into the future? The answer is no, if for no other reasons (oil supply, environmental, etc) the main push at this point is regulatory. China is GM's second biggest market and they've intimated they will enforce a "EV only" legislation. THIS is probably the biggest reason why they just announced 2 new EV's in 18 months and 20 more by the early 2020's.
 

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I think this was mentioned on NPR this morning (in the context of GM's pledge to electrify the heck out of their lineup). Also they said that Tesla 3 had hit some production delays, which was not unexpected. Had the Bolt not made its appearance when it did, Musk would have waited until the end of 2017 to at least complete the testing and iron out production bugs.
 

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all the Tesla fan boys are "shocked", "shocked I tell you" that Elon missed his goals

me I'm just chuckling - I really really really wanted to believe Tesla had learned lessons from the S/X production ramps - it appears all is the same in Fremont land…viva Bolt! Now if only Chevy could make a seat I could sit in…
 

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True, but 1% of sales (for example) is only seven doublings from 100%. This is why analysists pay such attention to growth markets. The only question here is will EV's stall and ICE continue forever into the future? The answer is no, if for no other reasons (oil supply, environmental, etc) the main push at this point is regulatory. China is GM's second biggest market and they've intimated they will enforce a "EV only" legislation. THIS is probably the biggest reason why they just announced 2 new EV's in 18 months and 20 more by the early 2020's.
but 7 doubles means you get 100% growth for each time period…that's hard

I agree growth is what to watch - but the total numbers are still anemic and we're not seeing anywhere close to 100% growth…I'm hopeful but realistic about where we are on the curve and it's still very very early in the adoption cycle…

it's a bit like a total kWh's delivered number Tesla shared for their supercharger network a year of so ago - it was big number and very impressive the total number of kWh's delivered in a year until you compared it to daily gas usage numbers…Tesla's annual kWh's delivered by their supercharger network was like 0.15% of the US's daily gas usage - so their annual usage was a fraction of daily demand - showing how far we have to go…
 

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but 7 doubles means you get 100% growth for each time period?that's hard
Agree, I'm not trying to say EV's are following exponential growth. If nothing else the mitigation is the fleet age and I believe the median lifespan of a car is 9 years.

OTOH solar, which is similar in many ways to autos, being an infrastructure and energy economy, has been enjoying exponential growth for years, and has just reached it's first inflection in the S curve. So yeah, EV's kind of smell like its getting there too.
 

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Delighted to see numbers going up. I think the Bolt is a great car - not perfect, but great.

Have to start someplace if you are going to go from 0 to 100. Still think the Bolt may presage a sea change for the traditional Major car manufacturers in the US. Tesla as a company is admirable but we need everyone in this EV game. Economy better if the Majors shift into this space as well as the innovators like Tesla.
 

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Bolt EV doing well, Volt not too well.
Yep, but does this really mean the current, former, and potential Volt consumers are simply choosing the Bolt? (My household falls into that category)

There are only so many consumers that make up the core demographic of BEV/PHEV buyers;
  • Price-insensitive early-adopters
  • Households with $150,000+ annual income
  • The Environmental and Politically Conscious
  • Those with Post Graduate college education
If so, a zero sum game strategy isn't really growing the technology for the long term.

There are 253,000,000 ICE vehicles on the roads in the U.S., and about 600,000 BEV/PHEV's. That's 0.00237%. And astonishingly, about half of those are in one State...California. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
 

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There are 253,000,000 ICE vehicles on the roads in the U.S., and about 600,000 BEV/PHEV's. That's 0.00237%.
That includes all vehicles like trucks, RV's, motorcycles, buses, etc presumably. IIRC comparing apples to apples, BEV's are 1% of the passenger vehicle fleet, which is all we're talking about here. There are BEV long haul trucks and buses but passenger vehicles are first.

I'm not starry eyed, I have no allusions that anything other than economics drives the world. But it so happens that the economics is beginning to seriously oilt in the direction of EV's, which is one reason I got one.
 

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That includes all vehicles like trucks, RV's, motorcycles, buses, etc presumably. IIRC comparing apples to apples, BEV's are 1% of the passenger vehicle fleet, which is all we're talking about here. There are BEV long haul trucks and buses but passenger vehicles are first.

I'm not starry eyed, I have no allusions that anything other than economics drives the world. But it so happens that the economics is beginning to seriously oilt in the direction of EV's, which is one reason I got one.
I like your thinking and its just about the only truly educated way to make a decision here. Seen this play out for myself with my own analysis of the market. For me it just took seeing more car makers jump on board to bring out higher volume selling EV's for me to finally get involved... that's when you know things are really heating up.
 

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That includes all vehicles like trucks, RV's, motorcycles, buses, etc presumably. IIRC comparing apples to apples, BEV's are 1% of the passenger vehicle fleet, which is all we're talking about here. There are BEV long haul trucks and buses but passenger vehicles are first.

I'm not starry eyed, I have no allusions that anything other than economics drives the world. But it so happens that the economics is beginning to seriously oilt in the direction of EV's, which is one reason I got one.
Professor, you inspired me to dig a little deeper as to where these statistics are coming from. It seems most of the data comes from State vehicle registrations.

What I am finding is definitions of what a "passenger vehicle", "passenger car", "passenger automobile" is to be varied. The US DOT has a definition, the State of North Dakota has another definition, California yet another. Some classify SUV's as "passenger cars', some define them as trucks;

From Statista - Some 263.6 million vehicles were registered here in 2015. The figures include passenger cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses, and other vehicles.

From Statista - In 2013, there were almost 129 million passenger cars registered in the United States.

From California Vehicle code - An "automobile" is a passenger vehicle that does not transport persons for hire. This includes station wagons, sedans, vans, and sport utility vehicles.

In New York State - Pick up trucks weighing less than 6001 pounds are considered passenger vehicles.

The question I was really attempting to pose was not if EV's represent 1%, 0.5% or 0.0023%. But based on the finite demographics of the consumers that actually purchase BEV/PHEV's at this point, what is the best way to cross the chasm? No matter what stats we use, BEV/PHEV's are a tiny niche market right now. Yes, more are being sold, but the number of U.S. consumers that can even begin to understand the overall (and superior for most) value is limited. I think there is a very large number of Volt owners now upgrading to Bolts, and this is why it's sales are increasing.

The real question is How does the U.S. drive significant adoption rates like
Norway at 34.7%
Iceland at 9%
Sweden at 4.7%
And yes, California at 3.5%

For me it just took seeing more car makers jump on board to bring out higher volume selling EV's for me to finally get involved... that's when you know things are really heating up.
To my knowledge, there are 3 BEV's, on 2 platforms that can achieve 151+ mile range...that a consumer can buy this very day; Tesla S, Tesla X, and Chevy Bolt. Only one whose MSRP is under $36,000. Everything else is vaporware. A lot of talk, press releases and proposed launch date timetables.

The Audi 250 Mile range BEV, has pushed back it's release date to 2019, and it's MSRP will be well above $90K. If there is a single 200+ mile range BEV that actually can be purchased with a price point less than the today's Bolt LT in the next 5 years, I will eat my hat. The only way I can imagine for BEV's to cross over into anything resembling mainstream within the next 10 years is for more aggressive government intervention...like Norway. A 25% tax Rebate.
 

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Question for you smart guys/girls: Is Chevy really selling the Bolt at a loss per vehicle (allowing them to sell many more [and more profitable] low EPA ICE cars)? And, as the demand for the gas guzzlers decreases, will the Bolt price graduate up $4-6K to at least break even, or up $8K to make a profit?
 

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Is Chevy really selling the Bolt at a loss per vehicle (allowing them to sell many more [and more profitable] low EPA ICE cars? And, as the demand for the gas guzzlers decreases, will the Bolt price graduate up $4-6K to at least break even, or up $8K to make a profit?
The loss number came from a financial estimate of the battery. Chevy then announced how much they're paying per cell, which apparently upset LG as that was supposed to be confidential. If you study the UBS teardown analysis they found that they had over estimated the cost of the battery, and it was IIRC something like 30% cheaper than they thought, which I believe places the selling price approximately on par. But even with their detailed analysis there's a lot we don't know. So not clear, and anyhow once you get into corporate financing it's an alternate universe anyhow which really depends on how they calculate - are they considering sunk development costs? How far back do you go, EV1? Often when they say "losing money" they mean breakeven, which is that they sunk millions into the R&D and are slowly recouping that.

Doesn't really matter to my mind, what is important is their roadmap. If this is the future, then certainly they'd be willing to sacrifice profit for market share, and certainly they didn't get into EV's thinking they'd turn big profits initially. Good news is it appears they are fully committed to the Bolt and EVs. True or not, once a corp settles on some narrative they stick to it. GM is a battleship but they've clearly turned in the direction of electrification.
 

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The US is a very interesting case. Governments in Europe, and China are clearly pushing the industry to EVs. As a result of the last election, the US government is pushing against EVs. Twenty years ago, this would have spelled the end of EVs in the US. But today, the US auto companies are looking to China as their only growth market. So we have the odd spectacle of the nasty auto industry dragging the federal government, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century. :)
 

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Change comes slow but it is coming.
Everyone said the technology wasn't there but Tesla and GM have clearly shown that it is.
EV adoption needs to be about making money...just like every other business.
EV adoption will occur across all transportation methods...electric trucks for the inner city delivery service. Short haul 18 wheelers are coming and this is an operational game changer. Bolts and Tesla help awareness but once the big three jump into electrified pickups and SUV's then things will get really interesting.
With Jaguar's new electric SUV due out late next year...the rest will follow.
Trucking fleet diesel costs are high...so once they see the money they can save, it is game over except for super long haul trucks. Did you ever notice that many interstate budweiser beer trucks run on natural gas instead of diesel?
Be patient...one good gas spike and everything changes...
Americans are creatures of habit...we have learned absolutely nothing from $4.00 gas.
Luckily, all smart Bolt owners are ready for that day to come, be it now or later.
 

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Oh..and by the way...
Some of my friends this week were skeptical of my recent EV purchase.
You know, the usual ignorant BS....
I asked their opinion on a huge issue I was pondering.
They asked me what was wrong.
I looked at them with a straight face...and said I really wasn't sure what to do with the $250 a month I now don't pay in gas.
Perhaps dinner out at a nice restaurant twice a week with my wife?
A trip to Paris for a few days...
A week skiing in Colorado at Beaver Creek...
Or better yet, a trip to California to take in all that EV goodness with a good bottle of Chardonnay.
That shut them all up pretty quick!
 

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The loss number came from a financial estimate of the battery. Chevy then announced how much they're paying per cell, which apparently upset LG as that was supposed to be confidential. If you study the UBS teardown analysis they found that they had over estimated the cost of the battery, and it was IIRC something like 30% cheaper than they thought, which I believe places the selling price approximately on par. But even with their detailed analysis there's a lot we don't know. So not clear, and anyhow once you get into corporate financing it's an alternate universe anyhow which really depends on how they calculate - are they considering sunk development costs? How far back do you go, EV1? Often when they say "losing money" they mean breakeven, which is that they sunk millions into the R&D and are slowly recouping that.

Doesn't really matter to my mind, what is important is their roadmap. If this is the future, then certainly they'd be willing to sacrifice profit for market share, and certainly they didn't get into EV's thinking they'd turn big profits initially. Good news is it appears they are fully committed to the Bolt and EVs. True or not, once a corp settles on some narrative they stick to it. GM is a battleship but they've clearly turned in the direction of electrification.
It's funny....after GM announced the price they are paying to LG for battery cells and LG/LG Chem was reportedly "ticked off", LG was then announced as GM's "supplier of the year" shortly after. Makes you wonder if that event was purely to appease LG for the battery pricing snafu. :p
 
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