[240vPlug]

I was looking at an article on Forbes from March 2019 predicting the Bolt EV will retain only 41% of it's value after 3 years. This of course means it has to lose 59% of it's value over the same amount of time.

Now for folks who typically don't keep their cars for a long time I'm thinking leasing might be a better deal. Residual values I researched on Bolt leases were between 52 and 56% for a 36 month lease.

I absolutely love my Bolt but I'm having some regrets now about 27 months in and seriously thinking about moving into a lease for the business benefits and to save some of the residual value loss. What do you all think?

Here's Why Electric-Car Resale Values Are Rising, With Tesla Leading The Segment

And what might happen to them if Washington eliminates the $7,500 EV tax credit.

www.forbes.com

 

[p7wang]

They are anti-EV and lie to you by comparing MSRP to residual value. What happens when you calculate MSRP minus $7500 tax credit minus mfg cash back vs residual value? I think you will see residual is more like 67% with 33% depreciation.

 

[240vPlug]

I see your point. I was able to take advantage of $10,500 in incentives when I took the federal and added on the $3,000 state incentive.

With that said though I think it still makes sense for someone looking today and in the future to consider leasing if they want to switch vehicles after a few years. The Federal credit is less than $2,000 now and last I checked our state incentives here in MD were depleted. Current incentives from GM only give you an extra $1,000 if you buy instead of lease.

 

[surgeonFWW]

I doubt that any EV is losing 20% of its value EACH YEAR. I even doubt that it will lose 10% each year and be worth nothing after 10 years. I looked into leasing a BMW i3 before purchasing my 2017 Bolt EV. The BMW dealership (as "purchaser") was going to take the $7500 tax credit. I, in turn, would get more favorable leasing terms, BUT NOT equal to the $7500! Then there was the tire wear adjustment, the "overmileage" adjustment, and the wear-and-tear adjustment. There was too much uncertainty for my taste. I paid $42,500 for my loaded Premier. After the $7500 credit (I DID get the full credit - not all buyers do) my OOP was $35,000. I think I could get ~$29K for it right now (but I am guesstimating). Leasing offers some businesses a benefit, but not all. And this is only partially related to the rate of depreciation.

 

[p7wang]

Oh, and of course, Forbes does not account for 'fuel' savings. Over 3 years, you probably saved $3-5K in 'fueling cost'.

 

[greendave]

I doubt that any EV is losing 20% of its value EACH YEAR. I even doubt that it will lose 10% each year and be worth nothing after 10 years.

It's typically not a linear process. Depreciation is much faster in the first few years. That said, if you consider that 2017 Fiat 500E had an MSRP of $32,800 and can be found now for under $9k, 60% depreciation certainly is possible.

I don't think the Bolt will be in the same situation. It's got a much larger market than the first generation of EVs which were limited to 80 miles or less. Also, real depreciation is limited by the fact that nobody pays MSRP. If you paid $25k for the Bolt, 60% depreciation means a price of $10k.

 

[240vPlug]

I doubt that any EV is losing 20% of its value EACH YEAR. I even doubt that it will lose 10% each year and be worth nothing after 10 years. I looked into leasing a BMW i3 before purchasing my 2017 Bolt EV. The BMW dealership (as "purchaser") was going to take the $7500 tax credit. I, in turn, would get more favorable leasing terms, BUT NOT equal to the $7500! Then there was the tire wear adjustment, the "overmileage" adjustment, and the wear-and-tear adjustment. There was too much uncertainty for my taste. I paid $42,500 for my loaded Premier. After the $7500 credit (I DID get the full credit - not all buyers do) my OOP was $35,000. I think I could get ~$29K for it right now (but I am guesstimating). Leasing offers some businesses a benefit, but not all. And this is only partially related to the rate of depreciation.

I have a loaded Premier and paid about the same as you when you include sales tax and tags etc. Maryland has a 6% sales tax so the state rebate covered the sales tax with a little left over. Anyway depreciation does not occur on a set schedule but from my research the average residual value is just above 50% after 3 years. Hybrids have been hit especially hard as were early electric vehicles...one I saw only retained about 30% of it's original value after 3 years.

Our cars are very similar based on what you have said and I can tell you that according to kbb and black book the value of mine which just turned over 23k miles is below 25k .

 

[chadzu]

I paid 19K for my '17 premier in September. That is the current market value in Utah for used Bolts.

 

[finallygoingev]

With so many rebates/discounts, I think depreciation has to factor that all in for what someone actually paid, especially for any EV. Once the used leases/purchases with credits filter through, the prices will probably normalize as to what the vehicle is actually worth.

I just picked up one of the last few 2019s new for < 21k with all my credits (not counting tax which is so high since it's based on prices before GM discounts and tax credits). Will it be only worth 8.6k in 3 years? Probably quite a bit more is my guess.

Wanted to add demand is probably an issue because people living in apartments just don't have an easy time to plug in if parked under a carport...I can't see myself buying an EV if I was in an apartment complex.

 

[240vPlug]

I paid 19K for my '17 premier in September. That is the current market value in Utah for used Bolts.

How many miles were on it when you purchased?

 

[chadzu]

How many miles were on it when you purchased?

I think mine was around 57K miles when purchased.
I checked the local classifieds this morning and the Bolts are ranging from 16k for ones close to 100K miles with a couple of thousand dollars premium for lower mileage cars. The same dealer that I got mine at has a LT with DCFC and 21K miles for $18.5k today. If you want a '19 with under 20K miles they are around $22-25K.

I put 20K+ miles a year on my commuter car, so for me trying to find a super low mileage unit doesn't make sense. The Bolt is a good platform and the mechanical bits are well engineered. Battery degradation hasn't been an issue. I base this on history of Volt, and the higher mileage Bolts out there. Loosing 5-10% of capacity over 100K miles is an absolute non issue for me. Battery failures seem to have been showing themselves during the warranty period. I have never purchase a car new, so I may be a slightly different demographic from most Bolt owners. I am currently driving a '19 premier with under 1K miles on it, and for me the driving experience is exactly the same as my '17 with 60K.

 

[surgeonFWW]

Early EV adoption has favored the well-off due to the luxury market being targeted first and the fact that it was a "new car" market, with few used vehicles. It has also favored the "tech savvy". We all know the definition of depreciation, and that the worth of a "thing" is what someone is willing to pay for it. That being said, I think that new nuances of depreciation are coming to light. If our EVs benefit from having fewer than 20 powertrain moving parts, VERY minimal maintenance, and may last for 250K to 500K miles, does this not mean that the depreciation (loss of value) curve from "wearing out" will be less steep? Many people could care less about "tech", and this segment of drivers is much larger than the "innovators" and "early adopters" segments combined. When they want EVs for purely economic reasons, does this not mean that this market interest will keep EV values up (flattening the depreciation curve)? Lastly, (and I'm paraphrasing Tony Seba here) all technology adoption curves are "S shaped" and we are just entering the exponential upswing portion of the curve. This rapidly increasing demand will not and can not be supplied by the production of new cars. The used EV market will boom for the next decade making every "less techy", "high mileage" EV worth more.

 

[chadzu]

I think it is fair to say the the relatively low price of gasoline in the last few years is hurting used EV prices. I remember watching the value of worn out TDI VW's double almost overnight when gas prices soared a few years ago. The same thing will happen to the Bolt if/when gasoline prices put the hurt on people. Part of the reason I purchased my car when I did was based on "get in while they are cheap" mentality.

 

[240vPlug]

I think it is fair to say the the relatively low price of gasoline in the last few years is hurting used EV prices. I remember watching the value of worn out TDI VW's double almost overnight when gas prices soared a few years ago. The same thing will happen to the Bolt if/when gasoline prices put the hurt on people. Part of the reason I purchased my car when I did was based on "get in while they are cheap" mentality.

I agree with this. Right now everyone is rushing out to get an SUV or truck. How quickly we forget when 10-11 years ago gas prices were hovering around $5 per gallon and people were giving away SUV and trucks to get into hybrids and other fuel efficient vehicles. I honestly think the majority of the public doesn't think about any of this...they just forgot all about it ....until the gas prices jump again and then we will be in the same situation as we were back in 08.

Even with gas prices lower though it is still much cheaper to run a EV than a ICE vehicle. With my driving I figure I spend about $50 a month on electricity to fuel my Bolt. If I had an ICE that got 30 mpg I figure I would spend about $120 a month to fuel that. That is $70 a month just on fueling the vehicle that is being saved.

With that said though I don't think people in general are going to try new things unless they are forced to do so by something like high gas prices. They will continue to do what they have always done and drive around their ICE SUV that gets 20 mpg or less and spend lots of money on fuel.

Lastly, I don't know if/when this scenario might happen again so I have to assume fuel prices will stay where they are for the foreseeable future and base my decisions off that. I am getting lease quotes for $520+ a month for a loaded 19 premier on a 36/12k lease. That seems high to me!

 

[MikeyBolt]

Yeah, gas only costs about twice as much as bottled water right now! Not sure if it'll go up much in the next few years. What do the "experts" say? I haven't been paying attention since I no longer use gas.

Mike

 

[NY-Rob]

Well the residual takes a $10K+ hit the day you purchase the Bolt due to the Fed tax credit + local + dealer incentives.
It's inaccurate and misleading to base the depreciation rate based on the full MSRP that nobody pays.

My 2017 Bolt was $43K MSRP, the dealer wanted $39.5K for it, I got an instant $2.5K NY Drive Clean point of sale rebate plus the full $7.5K Fed tax credit. In the end, I paid $29.5K for my Bolt in 2017. Looking on cars.com 2017 Bolts are going for $24k... so that's $5K depreciation in 2yrs.. not too bad.

 

[wonderbolt]

Lots of good points already made here, I did just the opposite of @240vPlug and leased because:

• Business vehicle tax deduction
• New Vehicle / powertrain risk / reliability risk
• Assumed next generation EV's would be plentiful after three years
• Assumed I would want the newer technology / range/ formfactor(s)

The first bullet turned out not to be a benefit for me, I was better off deducting miles than actual cost. Second proved to be a non issue, I would now not hesitate to purchase a Bolt. Third may or may not become true when my lease is up next year, but currently looks risky. Fourth, not so sure anymore.

Reasons for apparent depreciation:

• Tax incentives factor into "actual vehicle cost"
• Folks are still afraid of purchasing used PHEV, BEV, HEV, etc.. which drives down the value, repair or battery replacement cost perception
• Unlike Tesla yo-yo pricing, GM keeps sticker price fairly constant and adjusts incentives to obtain desired sales volume. This allows them to tweak transaction price regionally and seasonally while maintaining the impression of price stability.
• Now available alternate EVs that have full Federal rebate still available (hyundai, Kia, etc...)

In October a friend purchased a new 2019 with the then current GM incentives, NY state credit, and Federal tax rebate for less than he could buy out his lease

Chevrolet Bolt EV Price Trends - CarGurus

Track Chevrolet Bolt EV price trends. Find out which cars are going up or down in price. Compare to index and historical prices.

www.cargurus.com

And now GM is offering the "you pay what we pay" deal, might have to turn in my lease early for this one...

 

[stangbat]

And now GM is offering the "you pay what we pay" deal, might have to turn in my lease early for this one...

FYI in October I got 25% off MSRP on my 2019 Premier and left a few hundred on the table because I was worn out and didn't want to haggle about the administrative fee. I don't know if current incentives on 2019s are any better, but I'd think at least 25% off MSRP should be possible if not more.

I also got $700 in Costco cash, and I'll get the $1875 tax credit.

 

[wonderbolt]

@stangbat ,right, this is the GM advertised price, looking at the deal my friend got in Oct he also got "lease loyalty" cash, no idea if that can be combined with this offer or not.

So you got the 25% off before any state or Federal incentives, Just GM and dealer discounts, correct?

 

[kendallg]

Lots of good points already made here, I did just the opposite of @240vPlug and leased because:

• Business vehicle tax deduction
• New Vehicle / powertrain risk / reliability risk
• Assumed next generation EV's would be plentiful after three years
• Assumed I would want the newer technology / range/ formfactor(s)

The first bullet turned out not to be a benefit for me, I was better off deducting miles than actual cost. Second proved to be a non issue, I would now not hesitate to purchase a Bolt. Third may or may not become true when my lease is up next year, but currently looks risky. Fourth, not so sure anymore.

My logic in leasing the Bolt echos yours, aside from the first bullet which does not pertain to me.

The technology around EVs is evolving so quickly that the impact on depreciation can only be significant. A 3 year old Bolt has "aged" much more relative to a 3 year old Cruze. With that in mind, and considering how low of a price I was able to get for the lease, I felt like it was a no-brainer to go in that direction. With the CA and Utility rebate my down payment was reimbursed and my payment was so low the car cost me just about nothing.

Just take a look at the price for a used Fiat 500e. You can pick those up for under $10K when they were originally $33K and up. Normal depreciation? No, not even close.

In the current state of the EV market purchasing the car is much more of a gamble if you don't plan to keep it for 10 years. Technology is just progressing too fast and the vehicles available 3 years from now will be vastly improved.