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Tesla is in a heap of trouble with the production issues they are having with the Model 3. Just the fact that the Model 3 is officially for sale has had a diminishing effect on demand for Tesla's Model S and even the Model X. Both with substantially higher profit margins than what the Model 3 will ever bring the company.
 

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Yes the planned introduction of the model 3 has likely impacted volume of S. And maybe it's just me, but the pizazz of the S seems to be wearing off. It's starting to look kinda lumpy, needs a facelift.
 

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The Model S has not been impacted yet by the Model 3. The reason why the Model S numbers are low is they wait until the end of the quarter for sales numbers. Last year October and November Tesla sold 1800 Model S. Then in December 2016 they sold almost 6000 units. Take a look at the history of Tesla sales numbers and it is not surprising. December also tends to be a huge sales month for cars. It would not surprise me to see 5000 Bolts sold in December this month. GM will approach 50,000 EV's sold this year with the Volt and Bolt, this is an exciting time for EV's!
 

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The Model S has not been impacted yet by the Model 3. The reason why the Model S numbers are low is they wait until the end of the quarter for sales numbers. Last year October and November Tesla sold 1800 Model S. Then in December 2016 they sold almost 6000 units. Take a look at the history of Tesla sales numbers and it is not surprising. December also tends to be a huge sales month for cars. It would not surprise me to see 5000 Bolts sold in December this month. GM will approach 50,000 EV's sold this year with the Volt and Bolt, this is an exciting time for EV's!
Tesla adjusted guidance for X and S sales down 10% for Q4. December should still be a big month, but interested to see how "big", as sales for the S are down compared to last year. Since ALL Bolts nationwide are now eligible for GM employee pricing (combined with the uncertainty of the EV fed tax credit), literally every Bolt in stock could be sold this month with a crazy year end rush!
 

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Bolt outsells Volt and Prius by a factor of two

The numbers so far this year for the Bolt EV are slightly better than either the Volt or the Prius, but in half the time, as the Bolt was not available country-wide until July, so that means the Bolt is selling twice as fast as the Volt or Prius.
 

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Bolts nationwide are now eligible for GM employee pricing
When did that take place ? GM Canada is still showing Bolt EV as ineligible for employee purchase program. :mad:

It probably doesn't matter around here anyway. Because there's no Bolts to be had.

But I don't understand GM withholding the employee purchase discount on "hot" vehicles like Z06/ZL1, Bolt etc. After all it represents a little subsidy paid by the company in respect of its employees who are typically the most loyal repeat purchasers. And it's a non-taxable benefit of sorts in the employee's hands. Seems like by withholding the employee discount, they're just appeasing the holy grail of the GM dealer body.
 

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According to AutoTrader there are 1,800+ Bolts nationwide. With the 2018 changeover happening this month, I can't imagine many more showing up on lots. Playing around with the distance and zip code on AutoTrader shows that, essentially, half those 1,800 cars are in mega metro areas on the west coast, and the other half are in the mega metro areas on the east coast. All the EV fans on both coasts have had all summer to kick the tires on these cars, some of which are over a year old now. I just don't see how Bolt sales can be anywhere as good as people hope for this December.
 

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According to AutoTrader there are 1,800+ Bolts nationwide. With the 2018 changeover happening this month, I can't imagine many more showing up on lots. Playing around with the distance and zip code on AutoTrader shows that, essentially, half those 1,800 cars are in mega metro areas on the west coast, and the other half are in the mega metro areas on the east coast. All the EV fans on both coasts have had all summer to kick the tires on these cars, some of which are over a year old now. I just don't see how Bolt sales can be anywhere as good as people hope for this December.
Cars.com shows 3,475 Bolts listed nationwide. Though that number probably includes in-transit Bolts too.
From what I've gathered, Bolts are pretty much sold out in the SF Bay area, and any new ones that come in get snapped up as soon as they touch the lot.

With employee pricing available on the Bolt everywhere, even Bolts in podunk, USA will probably get their tires kicked MUCH more than in the past.
 

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With employee pricing available on the Bolt everywhere, even Bolts in podunk, USA will probably get their tires kicked MUCH more than in the past.
I will be the first to admit I don't understand the intricacies of the car business. I have only ever paid "cash" for cars. The twin of our car is still sitting on the lot, in northern Virginia. It was built several months before ours, so is now over a year old, and has been sitting there almost a year. A few months ago, they lowered the price 2 grand from what they were asking when we bought. This week they raised it back up 1 grand. I have no idea how these prices reflect what people, using financing, actually end up paying. I hope all the manufacturers have a record December.
 

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I suspect that during the first 6 weeks of each quarter, Tesla ships a healthy percentage if its production oversees in order to get that product in the hands of buyers before the end of the quarter. This leaves fewer models available to be sold here in October and November.
 

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I think a big factor in December Bolt sales will be the $7500 credit. If it survives, there will be a big rush to grab it before the end of the year. If it dies, well... no rush. :(

I still have my fingers crossed that I will get my credit, but the way things are going, I fear I will not get it.
 

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I think a big factor in December Bolt sales will be the $7500 credit. If it survives, there will be a big rush to grab it before the end of the year. If it dies, well... no rush. :(

I still have my fingers crossed that I will get my credit, but the way things are going, I fear I will not get it.

The credit going away will make sales even higher for EV's. Kind of confused by your statement... The bill that was proposed would stop the credit at December 31st, 2017. They will not retroactively take away the credit from people who bought cars this year. This is the worst case scenario.
 

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I think a big factor in December Bolt sales will be the $7500 credit. If it survives, there will be a big rush to grab it before the end of the year. If it dies, well... no rush. :(

I still have my fingers crossed that I will get my credit, but the way things are going, I fear I will not get it.
Even if they get rid of the credit, the chance that they will make that retroactive, for those who have already purchased a car, are infinitesimal. Don't the lease and loan companies get those credits? I can't imagine the Republicans screwing financiers who pay them handsomely.
 

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Yeah they aren't making it retroactive, and even if the credit goes away, it was only going to be useful for about 2 -3 more years anyway. By that time most major manufacturers will be awash in EVs due to the economics finally improving and it phases out after like 200k units sold anyway. Tesla was going to lose it this year or next anyway.
 

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The Model S has not been impacted yet by the Model 3. The reason why the Model S numbers are low is they wait until the end of the quarter for sales numbers. Last year October and November Tesla sold 1800 Model S. Then in December 2016 they sold almost 6000 units. Take a look at the history of Tesla sales numbers and it is not surprising. December also tends to be a huge sales month for cars. It would not surprise me to see 5000 Bolts sold in December this month. GM will approach 50,000 EV's sold this year with the Volt and Bolt, this is an exciting time for EV's!
Tesla doesn’t release monthly sales figures, only quarterly sales, so any articles that reference monthly sales are guesstimates, at best.
 

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I think a big factor in December Bolt sales will be the $7500 credit. If it survives, there will be a big rush to grab it before the end of the year. If it dies, well... no rush. :(

I still have my fingers crossed that I will get my credit, but the way things are going, I fear I will not get it.
It would be unusual if the new legislation affected prior sales, if the credit is ended, it would most likely be as of 1/1/2018.

Since you’ve bought your Bolt in 2017 you will very likely be able to claim it on your 2017 return.
 

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Yeah they aren't making it retroactive, and even if the credit goes away, it was only going to be useful for about 2 -3 more years anyway. By that time most major manufacturers will be awash in EVs due to the economics finally improving and it phases out after like 200k units sold anyway. Tesla was going to lose it this year or next anyway.
Based on current sales projections both Tesla and GM will start to phase-out the credits some time in 2018.

One issue for the Tesla Model 3 potential buyers is that each month another few thousand Model S and X models are sold, moving Tesla closer to the 200k limit before the phase-out begins. It may be that relatively few Model 3 buyers will get the full $7,500 credit, even if the program survives in the pending tax bill.

Meanwhile, other manufacturers who are late to introduce EV models will have credits for the first 200k cars they sell, which will put GM and Tesla at a real disadvantage. $7,500 might not be a deal breaker for somebody spending $80k on a Model S, but it’s a real issue for mass market EVs in the $30k to $40k range.
 

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Cars.com shows 3,475 Bolts listed nationwide. Though that number probably includes in-transit Bolts too.
OK. It is too cold, and nasty to ride my bike, so I'm at the computer again. I poked around on AutoTrader, CarGurus, and Cars.com. AutoTrader has the lowest numbers, CarGurus fell in the middle. I will assume AutoTrader is only showing actual inventory? All three sites show more cars on the east coast than the west coast, which was not the cast up until last month. Assuming the others are showing cars in transit, it looks like the west coast has many more cars in transit. All of this makes sense if we assume that the west coast is the major market for EVs.

To come up with east coast numbers I put in anything within 500 miles of Richmond, Virginia. For the west coast, I put in anything within 500 miles of San Diego. Within 500 miles of these two locations takes up two thirds of the total inventory for all three sites.

So it appears that the Bolt may have another record month in December, maybe exceeding 3,000, and as always most of those will be on the west coast.
 

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OK. It is too cold, and nasty to ride my bike, so I'm at the computer again. I poked around on AutoTrader, CarGurus, and Cars.com. AutoTrader has the lowest numbers, CarGurus fell in the middle. I will assume AutoTrader is only showing actual inventory? All three sites show more cars on the east coast than the west coast, which was not the cast up until last month. Assuming the others are showing cars in transit, it looks like the west coast has many more cars in transit. All of this makes sense if we assume that the west coast is the major market for EVs.

To come up with east coast numbers I put in anything within 500 miles of Richmond, Virginia. For the west coast, I put in anything within 500 miles of San Diego. Within 500 miles of these two locations takes up two thirds of the total inventory for all three sites.

So it appears that the Bolt may have another record month in December, maybe exceeding 3,000, and as always most of those will be on the west coast.
If Chevy sells only 13 more Bolts in December than they did in November the total will hit 3,000, so a 3,000+ prediction is pretty much a given. There’s also the uncertainty over the$7,500 tax credit, which may or may not be available in 2018, depending upon the final language in the pending tax bill. The potential loss of this large credit will certainly be a motivator for anyone in the market for a Bolt.

My guess is somewhere between 3,300 and 3,500 delivered, but only time will tell. Of greater interest will be the December Model 3 deliveries, as the longer Tesla experiences production “heck” the better it will be for Chevy and the Bolt.

Even if Tesla finally gets automated production started, anyone who wants a 200+ mile range EV in 2018 who didn’t already put down a deposit with Tesla will have only one choice, the Bolt.
 
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