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That's why I said we're at an impasse. My evidence is that GM sells every Bolt EV they make. Ergo, if they make more, they'd sell more. Ergo, Bolt EV sales are supply constrained, not demand constrained.

You can ignore that, or you can move the goal posts by trying to assign a motive for why GM only builds X Bolt EVs. However, at the end of the day, they only build < 30,000 Bolt EVs per year, and they sell every one of them.
Selling every one eventually is not supply constrained. As I mentioned earlier, if that was the definition, every car would be considered supply constrained. That's not what that means. Is there a waiting list or delay in buying a Bolt? There are 1,500 of them sitting on dealer lots today. If there's a demand, they wouldn't be there for 6 weeks. You've not proved anything.
 

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Selling every one eventually is not supply constrained. As I mentioned earlier, if that was the definition, every car would be considered supply constrained. That's not what that means. Is there a waiting list or delay in buying a Bolt? There are 1,500 of them sitting on dealer lots today. If there's a demand, they wouldn't be there for 6 weeks. You've not proved anything.
1,500 sitting on dealer lots does not mean that there is a surplus of Bolts. Dealerships order what they believe they can sell. They can't sell cars of they don't have inventory. Most dealerships have on hand 30-60 days worth of inventory. Sure, some exotic models are sold before they hit the showroom floor. But the mistake in your logic is thinking that this is the ONLY indication that demand is greater than supply. What you should actually be looking at is the turn rate for Bolts. If they are sitting on dealership lots for 30-60 days, then there is NOT a surplus of Bolts. If they are sitting on lots for longer, then an argument can be made that there is a surplus.
 

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Well I disagree but respect your input. When I think of a supply constraint, I think of more people want to buy a product than is available. As far as I know, there are a fair number of Bolts that sit on lots unclaimed for weeks at a time. And to your definition, there are bolts that sit for more than 2 months, covered in dust with a flat battery. It's been documented on this forum.

Comparative to Tesla's situation where their "inventory" is fully turned over in 11 days (Tesla Q3 ER) or so mainly due to logistics of matching a customer to a car. If I'm looking to buy a particular spec car in NY, they match me to the closest one and deliver it, if it's even available. Otherwise I order it online and wait 2-12 weeks depending on the wave.

The flaw in the supply constrained argument is that the scenario you and NC describe is exactly how it is with every model of every manufacturer. If they are all supply constrained then there's never a demand constrain. We know that's not the case if you look at the latest numbers from all the traditional manufacturers and there wouldn't be deep discounts. The fact that the "guess the discount" game is even played should tell you that demand is often times 0 and remains 0 for weeks/months at a time for pretty much every model out there.

I completely understand that you need inventory to sell cars using the current dealer franchise sales model. But it's a known fact in the industry that dealers are incentivized to sell cars they don't want to but more importantly, they have to offer discounts to those that have been sitting for too long which happens with the Bolt. Not always but happens none the less. Forum members here have told stories of the orphaned Bolt that had been sitting for months looking for a home with no buyers. That flies in the face of supply constrained.

Here's the thing. I would be ecstatic if there were more compelling and popular EV's available. Every EV sold is one less ICEV. Tesla can not supply the transition on their own. They need the legacy automakers to fulfill the mission. I'm pushing back on bad data/information, not criticizing the car.
 

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Well I disagree but respect your input. When I think of a supply constraint, I think of more people want to buy a product than is available.
You can disagree all you want, but I am in the business and I know extremely well how this works. You are mistaken to focus on a couple of anecdotal stories of dealerships having an old Bolt. Chevrolet has about 3,000 dealerships. There are bound to be some outliers. Using your logic, someone ordering a Bolt with the color and options they want (because the dealership didn't have it on their lot) is evidence that there is a chronic shortage of Bolts. We know that some shoppers order that way. So your argument falls apart when you cherry pick just one side of the bell curve and ignore the other side. It's averages that matter the most. And, looking at the Bolt's averages, there is no credible evidence that GM is producing a surplus of Bolts.
 

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Here's the thing and I think we have beat this to death, his original assertion is that the Bolt is supply constrained and Tesla is demand constrained. Based on the definitions you guys have thrown around, how can any reasonable person support that statement based on what we know to be true. The implication is that GM could sell a ton more Bolts than they do if only they could build them fast enough. (look back at his 10/18 posts). There is no evidence to support that statement. GM builds and sells every Bolt they intend to. Sure, they could lower the price to $14k like a Sonic and sell more but at the price they are at, selling 30,000/year won't happen even though they have a battery contract that supports it.
 

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Here's the thing and I think we have beat this to death, his original assertion is that the Bolt is supply constrained and Tesla is demand constrained. Based on the definitions you guys have thrown around, how can any reasonable person support that statement based on what we know to be true. The implication is that GM could sell a ton more Bolts than they do if only they could build them fast enough. (look back at his 10/18 posts). There is no evidence to support that statement. GM builds and sells every Bolt they intend to. Sure, they could lower the price to $14k like a Sonic and sell more but at the price they are at, selling 30,000/year won't happen even though they have a battery contract that supports it.
If I recall, I stated that Tesla is one of the only EV automakers that could possibly be demand constrained. Tesla builds to order, and at one point, the turnaround for buying a new Model 3 (not inventory) was about the same amount of time required to build the car and let the paint cure. To be fair, Nissan is another EV automaker that could be demand constrained. When I spoke with one of their reps, he stated that Nissan was prepared to build 5,000 to 10,000 LEAFs a month for the North American market. However, that demand never materialized.
 

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OK. It has taken two weeks, but we are getting close to seeing Tesla US sales for Q2. Sales in the US appear to be off almost 50% YoY...somewhere between the Leaf and Bolt sales drop. Not bad considering they didn't put big chunks of money on the hood.


 

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This notion of demand constrained or supply constrained is silly. You adjust price to move demand curve to best suit supply capability/efficiency. If the Bolt is "supply constrained", it's only because they are selling them at a huge loss and not trying to ramp up production volume.

In other words, the constraint comes down to if consumers are willing to buy at the current price. If you want to buy any of these vehicles, you can.
 

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This notion of demand constrained or supply constrained is silly. You adjust price to move demand curve to best suit supply capability/efficiency. If the Bolt is "supply constrained", it's only because they are selling them at a huge loss and not trying to ramp up production volume.

In other words, the constraint comes down to if consumers are willing to buy at the current price. If you want to buy any of these vehicles, you can.
I agree, but the claim from fans and proponents of a certain EV automaker is that everyone else can't sell more EVs than they currently do because too few buyers want them.

For me, the argument about being supply constrained is very basic: There isn't enough battery production to make more. As you noted, GM can double their sales just by offering a discount, so they really can move their product at will simply by influencing the demand curve. But what GM can't do is simply snap their fingers and increase LG Chem's battery production volumes by 10%, 20%, etc. Building new battery production facilities requires time, and as more batteries are made, the production volume (and sales) will naturally increase.
 

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If True the new Nissan will be the one to beat in my opinion. Good MSRP& bigger pack& 130kw CCS& active temp MGMT = winning the new standard to beat (IMO they have raised the bar on styling and tech).

I'm guessing the larger battery Ariya will be closer to $50,000, so the base 63 kWh won't really have any sort of advantage over the current offerings from Chevy, Hyundai, and KIA. However, if it has the same C rate as the larger battery version, the 63 kWh Ariya should have close to a 95 kW charging speed, which will give it a leg up (all the more reason for GM to push the charging speed on the Bolt EV and EUV). As I've said elsewhere, if it also follows Nissan's tradition of a flat charging rate to 80%, it should travel very quickly, even in the 63 kWh trim.

Personally, I'm not a fan of the Ariya's styling. Perhaps it's the color? Maybe it will grow on me? But for now, I simply don't find it that attractive of a car. If I'm going to spend $50,000 on a car with 80+ kWh of battery capacity, it needs to be styled like the Mach-E, not the Ariya.

One thing I will say for Nissan, though, is that they make some of the most comfortable interiors. If the Ariya follows suit, it could be worth overlooking the styling.
 

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Personally, I'm not a fan of the Ariya's styling. Perhaps it's the color? Maybe it will grow on me? But for now, I simply don't find it that attractive of a car. If I'm going to spend $50,000 on a car with 80+ kWh of battery capacity, it needs to be styled like the Mach-E, not the Ariya.
I actually like the styling better than Bolt's. Look at how they did the exterior trim for example. Of course it is all very personal and subjective. I will say here yet again GM did a couple of moves that made the bolt LOOK AND FEEL CHEAP. The Cheapo non-painted black plastic LOOKS Cheap and makes the car look OLD unless You have Your life to give away with spraying dressings on it every single week... The Seats FEEL Cheap. I hope GM is reading these posts and addresses with the refresh.
 

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Take with a Semi truck of Salt some of the article mentions 2025 release dates. ...
$75K for the Lyric, better off with a $50K Model Y?

The article seems to be making assumptions based on the fact that Mary Barra said GM would be selling 1 million EVs a year by 2025, so essentially, every EV named has to be released by 2025 at the absolute latest. Simple timelines tell us they will be available sooner. The Lordstown battery facility is the linchpin, so the fact that it is going online in summer of next year tells us a lot. The BT1 and BEV3 platforms are already developed, the power trains are already built, the body cladding is going to be shared with other vehicles, as are the manufacturing facilities. This shift is going to happen quickly, and I'd be surprised if most of these vehicles weren't on dealership lots and available to purchase by the end of 2022.

As for a $75,000 Lyriq versus a $50,000 Model Y, they aren't even in the same class. One is Tesla's take on nouveau luxury, and the other will be an actual luxury vehicle. If the Model Y compares to anything GM has upcoming, it would be their XT4 EV (I think they're calling it the Budgetiq), which should start in the low $40,000s (maybe lower).
 
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