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Bolt vs. Leaf vs. Tesla Model 3 | Edmunds

28K views 149 replies 27 participants last post by  Sean Nelson 
#1 ·
{Sorry if this was already posted - it is from July '18}

Bolt vs. Leaf vs. Tesla Model 3 | Edmunds

 
#7 · (Edited)
There's a Leaf 2.0 with Pro Pilot and 900 miles on the odometer for sale near Portland for $27,000. Seems a pretty good deal if your intention was to never drive beyond the 160 mile range. I imagine the Leaf will do quite well, especially after the larger battery is made available at the end of this year.
 
#8 ·
There's a Leaf 2.0 with Pro Pilot and 900 miles on the odometer for sale near Portland for $29,000.
If you run your calculator against your existing Prius, add in expected maintenance expenses over 60 Months.
Then using:
Loan amount: $25,000
Interest rate (%): 3.11
Loan period (months): 60
Total cost of car (negotiated):$28,000
Monthly payments: $450

How does it stack up?
 
#12 ·
Doh, I hope the new Leaf isn't as bad as you're saying it might be. That would be a major setback for EVs if it turns out a dud. Lack of active cooling seems a huge mistake, and I'm surprised Nissan hasn't come to the same conclusion after 6 years of selling the previous Leaf.
 
#13 ·
I think it's a fair review - but the conclusion confuses me…also I don't think they give enough bonus points to Tesla for the supercharger network…and superior charging rate - but that's my opinion - all in all however the comparison is a good summary for those that are new to the EV world and gives a base line for thinking about how to approach a purchasing decision...

it gratifies me greatly there are now some comparison points, and I look forward to more competition for EV's so that more and more people can consider one...

I however think we'll need an EV pickup for them to become truly common - and I think the first vendor to market with a good EV pickup would jump ahead of the rest of the crowd - as we know Car's are not where the money is (Ford is leaving the 'car' market)…SUV/Trucks are sales leaders…
 
#16 ·
I however think we'll need an EV pickup for them to become truly common - and I think the first vendor to market with a good EV pickup would jump ahead of the rest of the crowd - as we know Car's are not where the money is (Ford is leaving the 'car' market)…SUV/Trucks are sales leaders…
And people like Diesel trucks for the Torque (with a capital T)... when they realize they can have TORQUE from an electric motor instead of Torque from a Diesel there will be a large market in the fly over states for Big honking EV trucks.

Keith

PS: I would love to have an EV pickup truck, a pickup is the TRUE utility vehicle.
 
#20 ·
I find this review interesting - it's a perspective from a hard core track-rat - Pete knows his stuff and has been hired by several manufactures to "tune" their cars - his opinion goes a long ways in my opinion - read and enjoy
Best paragraph:
Both things can be true: the Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor is both a good car and a bad one. It can have poor initial quality as well as industry leading owner satisfaction, just as their CEO can be a genius while still doing very stupid things.
 
#31 ·
Back to my comment about contractors, I still think a BEV truck would be perfect for them. They usually operate in a 60 mile radius or less (usually much less), and maintenance can be a pain on an ICE since it takes the truck out of service for a day and costs a lot for the service itself. With a BEV truck, it never needs to be fueled since it starts out charged every day. Just drive to the site, run the AC without burning fuel if you want, and power your tools from an onboard inverter. I'd think a 60 kWh battery in such a truck would be just fine, and certainly a 100 kWh battery would accomplish most any days work. If I were a contractor, I'd be all over a truck that doesn't have a transmission to worry about, oil changes, fuel expenses, etc.

BTW, depending on the trailer and what is being hauled (aerodynamics), it doesn't necessarily consume that much more energy. Sure, going up a hill sucks down the KwH, but you get it back on the way down. It's the ICE trucks that throw all that energy away going down a hill.
 
#34 ·
Back to my comment about contractors, I still think a BEV truck would be perfect for them. They usually operate in a 60 mile radius or less (usually much less), and maintenance can be a pain on an ICE since it takes the truck out of service for a day and costs a lot for the service itself. With a BEV truck, it never needs to be fueled since it starts out charged every day. Just drive to the site, run the AC without burning fuel if you want, and power your tools from an onboard inverter. I'd think a 60 kWh battery in such a truck would be just fine, and certainly a 100 kWh battery would accomplish most any days work. If I were a contractor, I'd be all over a truck that doesn't have a transmission to worry about, oil changes, fuel expenses, etc.

BTW, depending on the trailer and what is being hauled (aerodynamics), it doesn't necessarily consume that much more energy. Sure, going up a hill sucks down the KwH, but you get it back on the way down. It's the ICE trucks that throw all that energy away going down a hill.
I know first hand that your point is valid. I work for a contractor and we are tough on our vehicles. They average about 100 miles/day and we can get about 200k miles before they are basically no longer feasible to keep running. It's not unusual to go through 2 transmissions in that time span.
The torque isn't a necessity as much as ROI which in my mind the Workhorse or Bollinger would be ideal. A few years ago, I became aware of the Workhorse truck and bought some shares (sold them about a year ago) and tried to generate interest at my office. We already have a double level 2 EVSE that I built using a retro gas pump and recoil units from EVoCharge. During the day when the employees were charging, the trucks were on site. Each night when they returned, they could plug in overnight and good to go.
As much as I would prefer the Tesla truck, I don't think I can wait that long so I'm anxiously awaiting the first BEV pickup truck. There's also a $25k tax write off for vehicles over 6k pounds as well as additional depreciation perks. The Tesla Model X if used for business qualifies as an fyi.
 
#37 · (Edited)
Heh, I still enjoy catching a whiff of burnt diesel, and I removed the turbo silencer so I could hear it spool. Somehow it never gets old. The turbo is still much more quiet than my ISB engine though. Think of a school bus or garbage truck. Would much prefer a quieter common-rail engine, but that's what I could afford at the time.

I dislike excessively loud noises and wasted fuel (rolling coal) though.
 
#46 ·
We shouldn't feel too smug driving our EV's around when huge portion of harmful emissions and particulate emissions are not coming from tail pipes of ICE vehicles... We are all poisoning each other, even driving our EV's :)

Just one of many, many studies comparing toxic emissions from various sources of automobiles. Calling an EV a "zero emission vehicle" is a lie. Zero tail pipe emission, yes. Zero emission, no.

http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2013/wp29grpe/GRPE-65-20e.pdf

After thorough research of the air at highway with moderate traffic, the researchers found between 3,800 and 6,900 tyre particles per cubic meter of air while more the 58% of them are under 10 microns in size and therefore are able to penetrate into human lungs
causing bronchial asthma, allergic reactions, as a result of skin and mucosa contact–rhinitis,conjunctivitis and urticaria.
...
According to the research carried out in Moscow [2] the core pollutant of the city air (up to 60% of hazardous matter) is the rubber of
automobile tyre used up in a small dust.
...
As shown in the above analysis, tyre dust emissions due to tyre protector wear (in g/km) significantly (by 6 - 7 times) exceeds emissions of particulate matters with exhaust gases of passenger car engines.
...
The rubber and tyre industry enterprises are listed as carcinogenic hazard by the International Agency on Cancer Research and in the Russian Federation by the Federal Center of State Sanitary Epidemic Monitoring Agency. It has been determined that tyre wear dust contains more than 140 different chemicals with different toxicity but the biggest threat to human health is poly-aromatic hydrocarbons and volatile carcinogens N-nitrosamines.


And since our EV's weigh more than a similar ICE vehicle due to the heavy batteries, the tires will also operate at higher temps and wear faster, and thus create accelerated tire emissions versus a lighter ICE vehicle.
 
#59 ·
one problem at a time people - one problem at a time

yes making stuff causes CO2 and other demands - but we know ICE emissions are a problem - if we take care of those (and they are large) we can turn out attention to the next big wins

this is not an all or nothing game - we can take wins as we get them and continue to push to make things better…yes the EV is not a total solution - but it's a major benefit vs. the status quo and has measurable reductions...

if we then fix the other problems they will benefit both EV's and ICE cars (which will be with us for quite some time) and then that's a good win also...

let's not dispute progress just because it's not a complete solution.
 
#60 ·
#61 · (Edited)
Climate change is not an existential threat. It never was.

Besides all that, we need to solve the problems of our day. Trying to solve the problems of 10 generations into the future is futile, because those problems are sure to have changed from what we have predicted today. I'm sure that 10 generations from now they will wish their big problem was as quaint as the outdoor thermostat.

That's not to say that climate change is not a big deal. It's just not in the top 10 biggest deals.
 
#62 ·
Climate change is not an existential threat. It never was.

Besides all that, we need to solve the problems of our day. Trying to solve the problems of 10 generations into the future is futile, because those problems are sure to have changed from what we have predicted today.
Be that as it may, it seems exceedingly likely to me that future generations will see our primal sin as first causing and then failing to respond to climate change, in just the same way we view the sins of slavery, colonialism, oppression etc. by our ancestors.
 
#65 ·
I said nothing about time frame - I was simply pointing out EV's are a "win" - but they are not the complete solution - fact of the matter is it's probably already too late to prevent major changes - we're probably already past the tipping point - if we really wanted to fix things we needed to act in the 60's/70's - what we're dealing with is long cycle long duration high impact complex systems we don't fully understand...

but yes I'll take my emissions win's where I can find them - but never claim now we're done.
 
#67 ·
Yes, this is true. We are going to have to spend a massive amount of time and energy capturing and sequestering the large amount of CO2 we are still regularly putting into the atmosphere, and that doesn't even address the 150-200 ppm on the atmospheric level that needs to be captured and sequestered.

We've got our work cut out for us.
 
#69 ·
Ah, the internet.

Only here could a discussion about 3 automobiles be hijacked into pro-commie green B.S.

(In case you haven't figured it out, I'm using hyperbole.)

But seriously, can a mod/admin grab all the political opinion posts and toss it into some random (?new?) thread in the "this isn't about the Bolt" section of the forum?

Thx.
 
#92 ·
No. The whole site is about $35K+ EV's, and since they're so dang reliable, efficient, and cost effective to operate - ain't much technicalities we haven't rehashed 100 times over. As Tony Stark says: B-O-R-I-N-G (not the tunnel company)

Since I am in the company for some of the most brightest & intellectual minds, as evidenced by the fact they either own a EV, or are very interested in the domain of EV's, I will happily take this as an opportunity for learning new things, or for changing my biased outlook on topics as a good thing (Which this particular thread brought about, BTW).

And whats really cool is nobody is forcing me to read and comment on any thread that veers off-topic.
 
#99 ·
I work for a publicly traded company, and they gave men 6 weeks of paid paternity leave not long ago. A business might be about making money, but fortunately that also means retaining talent, which means voluntarily spending money they aren't obligated to.

Companies might often be short-sighted, but that seems to be a universal human deficiency, not unique to corporate financial strategy.
 
#101 ·
We're also in a full-employment environment. The unemployment rate is a shade under 4%. The $$$ printed up by the last tax cuts (increased the deficit by more than $2.3 trillion) is awash in the economy and everyone's feelin' the warmth. Credit has been lose, especially commercial credit. We think we're producing something, but we're just swapping the currency that's still wet.

Today employers must compete for quality employees. Not just in pay, but bennies that mirror Silicon Valley Romper Room qualities.

Things are great! What can possibly go wrong?

Alas, it was just 9 short years ago when the unemployment rate was over 10%. Remember when companies were laying off by the bus load and making the remaining employees do their work, and the work of their laid off co-workers as well? At the same pay? With the implicit threat they too could be let go just as easily?

Aahh, the good 'ol days. How soon we forget. Household savings are negative again. We're so confident, that total consumer credit card (revolving) debt has eclipsed $1T for the first time ever. Consumer debt is $4T. Student loan debt is approaching $2T. Stock markets? So many bubbles I can't keep track of 'em.

 
#100 ·
I work for a publicly traded company, and they gave men 6 weeks of paid paternity leave not long ago.
The paradigm is changing and it may be today an upwardly mobile young executive father can take six weeks of paternity leave and not lose career momentum. If that has become the norm, better for everyone. Just how much of one's future can be bet sharks no longer react to blood in the water?

jack vines
 
#105 ·
"
By that time the wealthiest will have converted most of their monopoly money to real cash, and like the last recession, leave Joe Sixpack wondering how he could have been suckerd again.
"

Exactly. Unless you're paying attention and getting the FACTS (remember them?) the ignorant MAGA hat wearing crowd will just keep voting against their own interests, then wonder why they keep getting screwed.
 
#109 ·
Shotel has convinced me that a crash is on the horizon, so perhaps I'll hold off buying a used EV until then. I do know money talks in recessions. Seems wisest to save when everyone else is spending, and spend when everyone else is broke.
 
#111 · (Edited)
Why pay off mortgage debt though? I consider my 30 year fixed, low interest mortgage to be a hedge against inflation, and the interest is tax deductible.

I don't have solar yet, but probably will have something one day; perhaps wind or micro-hydro.

I'm doing everything else listed above, though I did sell a rental property in OK because my partner wanted out (hard to manage so far away).

Do you think housing will take a dip when the next recession hits, or just level off momentarily? The reason I ask is that I'm needing to move in a few months and am wondering if it's wisest to rent for a little while, or purchase.
 
#115 ·
Why pay off mortgage debt though? I consider my 30 year fixed, low interest mortgage to be a hedge against inflation, and the interest is tax deductible.
Couple of things on that very good point:

A.) Using something like the Mortgage Payoff Calculator: Extra Monthly Payments to Pay Off in Specified Period. I was able to determine how much money in interest savings I would get vs. the tax deduction savings over time (I had to cacl the tax deduction myself using the amortization table)).

Example; $300,000 mortgage loan for 30 years at 4.5%.
The annual interest tax deduction would be about $15,000. If my household taxable income is $100K, this would reduce it to $85K. Assuming no other deductions, and finding my Fed tax bracket, I see that on $100,000 income, my tax bracket is 28%, and I would ow Uncle same $28,000. But after the Mortgage Interest deduction, my new taxable income goes to $85,000 and that rate is 25%. Here I would own Uncle Sam $21,250. The Interest deduction saves me $6,750 for that year! This savings goes down slightly every year as the P&I mortgage changes. Ballpark estimate is that over 30 years, assuming the income is the same and the taxable rates remain the same, perhaps $100,000 in overall savings.

Now I look at the "what if" of paying off the $300,000 in 10 years by applying an extra payment every Month of $1589. Per the calculator, I will save $174,120.18 in mortgage interest! Plus even more because I am still getting the tax write off over the 10 years of the interest. Perhaps an additional $40,000. Total savings is somewhere in the neighborhood of $214,120 vs paying the mortgage over 30 years and taking the tax benefits. * as usual YMMV.

B.) Because I have made so many big bets on the future (in the form of debt), and lost on 95% of them, there is another component to being totally debt free - peace of mind.

When we make a bet on the future, by contractually committing to paying a loan over time + interest, we are betting that our financial circumstances will remain the same or get better over that time period. We are betting that our incomes won't go down, that we will always be in the position to earn an income, and that "life" (children divorce, our own health or the health of any loved one, etc.) will standby for us. We also assume that other factors that we have zero control over (like the overall economy or some new technological development that renders what ever we do to earn income obsolete, college cost, etc.) will also remain static. Throw in the loss of individual productivity with age (we degrade just like a BEV battery over time) and that most likely we become less tolerant of stress over time as well.

A ten year span of minor sacrifice and hustling like hungry Wolf - while one has the energy and output capabilities - can put one in a sweet financial situation for the remainder of not only their years, but allow a pass down of real wealth to their children.

From my POV now, there is no dollar figure I can put on greater peace of mind and less overall and background stress.
 
#116 ·
Ah, but you have to factor in the earning power of investing the extra money you have by not making additional mortgage payments. My checking account earns 1.75%, which isn't as much as my 3.75% mortgage, but brings the gap closer. If I simply invested the extra money into an index fund, I'd likely come out ahead. I haven't done this yet because although I'm extremely risk tolerant, I'm extremely gambling intolerant (and the stock market appears to me as a rigged game).

There is the added benefit of having liquidity so that I can jump on any opportunity that might present itself. Finally, there might be rapid inflation, which I don't see how we can avoid considering the debt we've grown. Fixed interest debt is how you hedge against that. I may be wrong about that assumption, though I've got 20 more years left to test the theory, and haven't lost much in the meantime considering money is still being invested.

My financial view has been shaped by observing my grandfather accumulate great wealth, and enjoy very little of it as he lost interests and health over time. It seems to me that taking advantage of investment, travel, and experiences while youthful may be better than dying with a pile of money, while still holding the potential to die with a pile of money.

I certainly have no plan to rely on my occupation for income in my later years. My plan at the moment is to accumulate rental properties and have a nice passive income in the future. Better to have property debt if rapid inflation comes than to have piles of money.
 
#117 · (Edited)
your home is an asset - it appreciates based on market conditions
as an asset it's rate of appreciation is the same regardless of how much you owe - paying off your mortgage does not cause it to appreciate at a greater rate
if your interest rate is below 3.75% it can be argued that there are better opportunities for the money that would return more than 3.75%
there is great satisfaction to having one's home paid off - but there is also great satisfaction in liquidity - and if you have enough to pay off the house - you have enough to make house payments for quite a while and find a better place to park the money…while still making payments

it's all about the opportunity cost of the money - as long as you are not upside down in the home and it's appreciating - it rarely makes sense to pay off a mortgage unless you're paying 4% or more in interest - then it becomes more interesting…

but to each their own - when the market is doing well you can find better returns than paying off the mortgage (3.25% annually) -when the market is not doing well you can hang out with cash and enjoy your low interest loan and the liquidity…looking for the market to return to the next growth cycle...

it can be said for the past 9 years paying off one's mortgage at sub 4% rates has been an interesting choice when the market has been returning 10% or more...

my mortgage is 2.88% fixed for 30 years - there are much better places to park the money for a return than getting a 2.88% return

the trick is to actually invest the money rather than simply spending it - if you're inclined to spend it - then by all means pay off the house!!
 
#119 ·
the trick is to actually invest the money rather than simply spending it - if you're inclined to spend it - then by all means pay off the house!!
If I was an idiot, I would have invested in TSLA @ $360 in hopes that it would go to $420 like EM suggested. Right now it's at $316. But in your world that's NOT "spent" money...it's an "investment". I have shown how paying off ones home can save Interest over time, which interest is INDEED "spent" money.

So yes, I will remain at the $2 Blackjack table counting cards and trading 21's with the house that pay me 1.5x. You can roll with the bottle service at the $500 min crap table. I don't enjoy the same privileges as you, so please excuse my poverty stricken (risk adverse) financial methods and goals. But don't patronize me.
 
#118 ·
Yep, we're all at the Roulette table of the future trying to make our bets. The riskier the bet, the better the return...if it hits. An Index fund is just another bet on the future. But a bet we have no control of. But again, you can forecast the delta between an any and any scenario including factors for risk. If indeed you can guarantee that money in equity investing has a better ROI than reducing mortgage interest over time, vs. you're good to go. Place your bet on the table. For me, I could never pencil those out. And I can't agree more with the Real property ownership investment.

You mention travel and actually enjoying ones self while one can. You are spot on! One of the best values today is International travel. I can get from Oakland to Barcelona, London, or Paris for less than $300 Round Trip. I can get from LAX to Singapore for $415 round trip. This was the primary reason I chose a pre-owned Bolt over a Tesla X. That $50,000 difference - for me - was far better spent taking 4 one week (9 days each) International excursions per year, for the next 8 years, than bragging to my friends that I have a Tesla. I wish I could do both, but I can't.

Enjoying ones self and simultaneously making financial sacrifices for future benefits are not mutually exclusive (if I'm using that phrase correctly). My neighbor across the street travels about 40% of the time, but while he's away, his otherwise empty and functionless house is Air BnB'd out. He actually turns a profit on that. Most people, myself included, have a hard time with that modern concept. My point being that there are just so many options to actually earn income AND have fun while doing it. I just gotta let go of many of the socialized mental shackles that bind me.
 
#120 · (Edited)
my apologies Shotel - no slight was intended - I would never suggest anyone invest in Tesla, but Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. (MMP) corporation has a stable stock price and has paid 5.47% dividends for 15 years as one example…

I enjoy your posts and insight and my goal was to provide context to consider operating capital vs. where it can do the most good - paying off one's house at @2.88% interest (my 30 fixed mortgage rate) vs. making 5.47% dividend money with a stable well established Warren Buffet style investment (plus bank any appreciation in the stock price) is something to at least consider...

as always do what make you feel the most comfortable - no one has to follow any internet advise.
 
#122 ·
my apologies Shotel - no slight was intended ...
No offense taken. My main point is one of risk. I can guarantee (in online non-binding Forum terms), that an early payoff of ones home mortgage results in unambiguous hard dollar savings vs. paying that interest, irrespective of the rate, over time. This is why I took time time and effort to illustrate a model.

The only equity positions I currently hold are in dividend paying stocks such as ATT, Verizon, Big5 Sporting goods, GE, etc. But none of these dividend returns are guaranteed. Lets look at VZ in per share amounts over time:
--Stayed steady and increased since 2000
Sweet!

But to spare the ugly details about GE dividend payouts:
--was going well up to 2009, dropped like a rock, and has yet to fully recover.

Yikes, what a dog it became.

Again, even very conservative investment options such as dividend stocks are not guaranteed. There is inherent risk, and it also depends on an individuals Investment window. Each of ours is different. My investment window is closing soon. Whereas my sons is just opening. If ones window began in 2000, and closed in 2010, one would have lost. But the next person's could have begun in 2010 and right now that person would be winning bigly.

In terms of the free investment "advise" As you can see, my very limited exposure to the market is in dividend stocks only - we all have our unconscious biases.. I try to expose mine with a little past history. You of course can choose not to respond, but I'm guessing you have some of your personal compensation tied to stock options? It is my experience that many who advocate for market investments as if the risk was less than what it is, also have a vested interest in having everyone participate in the markets. When the entire market goes up, ones own prospects rise right along with the tide.

I interpret When you say "...making 5.47% dividend money..." it sounds as if this return were factually guaranteed.

And if you believed in the Tesla mission 6 years ago you would have 10x your investment.
Whether you would have been an idiot at $360 certainly seems evident today but we'll see if a year from now that may seem like a bargain. Many thought Tesla at $30 was ridiculously overpriced too.
Not advise.
You're stating the 20/20 hind-sight obvious. I would say my personal strategy isn't about an emotional connection to a companies mission (as I am all-in on the stated Tesla mission), but what are it's future prospects. Also, like I pointed out above, where is one at in their investment window? 6 years ago my son was 17. Now his window of investment is just opening. I think he also "believes in the Tesla mission". Would you, in good conscious, advise him to buy TSLA at today's price and volatility? Even for a 6 year hold position?
 
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