[Usain]

The 4680s are definitely cheaper to produce on a per-unit basis, but not necessarily on a per-kWh basis. Also, cylindrical cells cost a lot more to integrate into a pack than pouch or prismatic cells, which offsets a lot of the savings from making the cylindrical cells in the first place. It's important to remember that much of Tesla's battery cost advantage was based on chemistry (lower cobalt use), and the first generation Ultium cells are using a similar amount of cobalt as Tesla's current chemistry.

All we know at this point is that Tesla is targeting sub $100 per kWh cell costs while GM is claiming sub $100 per kWh finished pack costs for their first generation Ultium packs.

If Tesla can really do everything they said they will do on battery day then the 4680 will be far cheaper per kWh than Ultium. But that remains to be seen.

 

[NewsCoulomb]

If Tesla can really do everything they said they will do on battery day then the 4680 will be far cheaper per kWh than Ultium. But that remains to be seen.

I'm not so sure about that. Tesla conveniently omitted any baseline, foundational numbers, so all of their reduction claims can't be quantified. On the other hand, companies like BYD and GM have clearly stated that their near-term cell costs are $80 to $90 per kWh. Nothing shown at Battery Day indicates whether Tesla's batteries are cheaper than that, and even if they will be, Battery Day didn't indicate by when.

 

[Usain]

I'm not so sure about that. Tesla conveniently omitted any baseline, foundational numbers, so all of their reduction claims can't be quantified. On the other hand, companies like BYD and GM have clearly stated that their near-term cell costs are $80 to $90 per kWh. Nothing shown at Battery Day indicates whether Tesla's batteries are cheaper than that, and even if they will be, Battery Day didn't indicate by when.

Yes, it remains to be seen. Tesla did say they will cut battery cost by 56% per kWh. It's hard to imagine that wouldn't get them under Ultium cost since Bloomberg is estimating Tesla's current cost at $115 per kWh. So even if Bloomberg is way off, Tesla will still get well below $80.

But again, we don't know if Tesla can pull it off. It depends on perfecting several different manufacturing technologies built out to scale.

The thing I'm most interested in is the radically different approach between the two. Tesla won't use a traditional battery pack. Instead, the battery will become part of the car's structure and I can't find anything that suggests it will be servicable. So if your batteries go bad, you have to throw away the car.

 

[NewsCoulomb]

Yes, it remains to be seen. Tesla did say they will cut battery cost by 56% per kWh. It's hard to imagine that wouldn't get them under Ultium cost since Bloomberg is estimating Tesla's current cost at $115 per kWh. So even if Bloomberg is way off, Tesla will still get well below $80.

But again, we don't know if Tesla can pull it off. It depends on perfecting several different manufacturing technologies built out to scale.

The thing I'm most interested in is the radically different approach between the two. Tesla won't use a traditional battery pack. Instead, the battery will become part of the car's structure and I can't find anything that suggests it will be servicable. So if your batteries go bad, you have to throw away the car.

Right, but Tesla never provided those numbers. I saw other estimates putting Tesla's current battery costs at well over $150 per kWh, which would put their next generation battery costs on par with BYD and GM. And to me, those similar battery costs seems to be the most plausible. After Battery Day, while some people who were heavily invested in TSLA (such as Sandy Munro) were waxing poetic about Tesla's battery dominance, others with insider information (such as Bob Galyen of CATL) simply shrugged and said that everything they saw indicated that Tesla on even footing with other battery producers.

Still, I think your comment about the serviceability is the key concern. Tesla really is approaching cars like electronic devices. The number of people who perform repairs and services on mobile phones is very small. They are throwaway devices meant to be recycled, not repaired. Maybe Tesla is applying the same logic to their cars. Own them for 10 years, throw them away, and buy another.

 

[Usain]

Still, I think your comment about the serviceability is the key concern. Tesla really is approaching cars like electronic devices. The number of people who perform repairs and services on mobile phones is very small. They are throwaway devices meant to be recycled, not repaired. Maybe Tesla is applying the same logic to their cars. Own them for 10 years, throw them away, and buy another.

Yes, and Ultium takes the opposite approach. You can not only change out the battery pack with relative ease, you can upgrade it as well.

There are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches.

 

[Usain]

After Battery Day, while some people who were heavily invested in TSLA (such as Sandy Munro) were waxing poetic about Tesla's battery dominance, others with insider information (such as Bob Galyen of CATL) simply shrugged and said that everything they saw indicated that Tesla on even footing with other battery producers.

Is Munro a big TSLA investor? Or did you just mean that he's getting a lot of YouTube cash from focusing on Tesla?

If Tesla is on an even footing with GM then Tesla will win. For every cell Tesla makes on its own, that's profit it doesn't have to share with a third party supplier. And that's another very interesting part of all this. For the foreseeable future, manufacturing lithium batteries will be like making your own gold bricks. If Tesla can be a credible force in that business, they can do anything they want.

 

[shocker]

Or did you just mean that he's getting a lot of YouTube cash from focusing on Tesla?

Sandy has said 2020 was a very tough financial year for Munro Associates. Every little bit helps.
You have to admit, there's no fanboi like a Tesla fanboi. For example, a Model Y delivered looking like this is "like what's your problem?"

Back to batteries, IIRC, about 5 difficult things to do have to pan out for the 56% cost reduction to happen.

 

[gouvisa]

FYI, the correct phone contact info for the Bolt EV Concierge: 1-833-382-4389.

The number listed earlier on this forum (866-424-3892) is the Corvette Concierge.

FYI, I called in and started the process. They told me a specialist would call me back in 24-48 hours, but there may be delays due to utility outages in California (where I reside) due to some of the recent winter storms.

 

[sundog]

Wow. I just opened my mail and got the following letter from my dealership. I'm wondering what is really behind this letter:

I've got great news! I reviewed your file and I'd like to make an offer to purchase your Chevrolet Bolt. During this event, I'm willing to give you more money than I usually would for it and I'd be happy to purchase your vehicle from you even if you don't buy one from me.

Our pre-owned inventory is severely understocked and I refuse to source our vehicles from the auction. As you can imagine, this has caused the value of your vehicle to skyrocket and I'm absolutely willing to pay more for clean vehicles like yours (cash or trade).

Simply put, this is exactly what I'm planning to do for you:

• Give you as much as I possibly can for your vehicle
• Defer your car payment for up to 3 months
• Deliver your new vehicle to you, if you'd like, at no additional cost.

I really want to help you and I have a plan to do exactly that. Please give me a call or stop by from now until the close of business Saturday, February 27th, 2021; call me on my direct line, 470-xxx-xxxx.

With Service in Mind,

General Manager

I doubt that has anything to do with the recall. Dealers send those out as letters, postcards, emails. They are just beating the bushes to get used cars cheap. I bet they make no offer at all once they realize there is a "stop sale" on it, because the last thing they want is to take-up lot space with an un-sellable car.

 

[NewsCoulomb]

Is Munro a big TSLA investor? Or did you just mean that he's getting a lot of YouTube cash from focusing on Tesla?

If Tesla is on an even footing with GM then Tesla will win. For every cell Tesla makes on its own, that's profit it doesn't have to share with a third party supplier. And that's another very interesting part of all this. For the foreseeable future, manufacturing lithium batteries will be like making your own gold bricks. If Tesla can be a credible force in that business, they can do anything they want.

Yes, Munro basically acknowledged that he has made a significant amount of money off his TSLA investment.

As for Tesla "winning" if it is on even footing with GM, I don't agree. Not even close. Remember that GM's partnership with LG is a joint venture in the same way that the Gigafactory was a joint venture between Tesla and Panasonic, so they would still be on even footing.

 

[Tracer400]

I just deposited the check from the buyback of my 2017 orange Chevy Bolt Premier with about 40,000 miles after spending about 2 months of the process. I started the process shortly after the new year by calling Chey's general number posted online and ended up with a customer care specialist. This specialist was very attentive and contacted me every few days with updates on where things were at. I had to provide my title, registration and something called a buyers order. I did not have this but me dealer had it and provided it. After all the paperwork was sorted in was transferred to a group in Saginaw MI that performs the next step. The title of the person helping me was a re-purchase coordinator. He pulled together the offer which was based on the lemon law for my state (although the car did not qualify as a lemon under the law. After re-sending all the paperwork to him, he send me a written offer. The offer in my state (MD) was the the base price plus title and fees plus state fees plus sales tax. incentives and a usage fee (capped at 15%) were subtracted. The settlement amount was ~mid thirties and did not consider that I also received the full 7500 federal rebate and a 2000 state rebate. Chevy was very professional and my main talking points early on were only :

1. I paid for a full battery pack not a 95% battery pack
2. I refuse to have the dealer limit my charge level
3. I will accept any solution that results in a full battery capacity or a buy back but have no interest in trading car + cash for a new vehicle.
4. This is my second GM EV purchased new in the past 7 years, both were purchased new.

So what to buy next? I really don't need a car until post covid vaccination so I'm not in a rush. I have my eyes on a few models not out yet that I cannot objectively evaluate but here are my thoughts....I"m a hatchback guy

#1. A new chevy bolt, fully loaded with the larger 259 mile battery. The Chevy is a great option for me if they are discounted at least 20K. That is about where they are at now (mid twenties) and I expect more discounting over the next few months. As long as I have an alterative car for long trips, I consider the Bolt to be near ideal for around town.
#2 The Lyriq: Sounds like a big step up, its still a hatchback and will offer a really nice screen, good range, faster charging and a bit nicer interior. I Dont know if I can wait long enough, I will need a car end of summerish.
#3 Ariya: Should be out soon and looks like a decent hatchback. I'd need the bigger battery. Looks like they have embraced important issues like
CCS charging and a liquid cooled battery.
#4 A few others that can't be driven right now are on my mind
#5 Model Y: Available now, and hopefully they have their fit/finish under control. I'm not a fan of only having a big center screen and the subscription based premium entertainment). This seems like an easy default choice.
#6 Ford Mustang EV: I need to drive this one before I judge too harshly, but in general it sounds a bit too heavy, and the center screen, ugly square dash doesn't do much for me. I'm focusing on the CA edition

I'm also intrigued by the new Audi GT, I find this more attractive than the Porsche.

 

[Tracer400]

I have been working with a customer care specialist also. He called and said my 2017 Bolt Premier with 25,000 miles on it is not eligible for the buyback option. He offered to give a rental car until GM comes up with a fix for the battery problem. I did have the software update to limit the range. My customer care specialist is firm on not buying the car back. I am in the state of Illinois, which does have a lemon law. Is it possible to contact the re-purchase coordinator and bypass the customer car specialist?

 

[SodePop]

I have been working with a customer care specialist also. He called and said my 2017 Bolt Premier with 25,000 miles on it is not eligible for the buyback option. He offered to give a rental car until GM comes up with a fix for the battery problem. I did have the software update to limit the range. My customer care specialist is firm on not buying the car back. I am in the state of Illinois, which does have a lemon law. Is it possible to contact the re-purchase coordinator and bypass the customer car specialist?

If the lemon laws had any effect towards our odds of a buy back option, illinois would be at the bottom of the list. Our state has the absolute worst lemon laws in the U.S.! I'm from Illinois also and did contact GM. So far, nobody has called me back. But even if/when I might talk to somebody, I doubt they'll do anything. FYI...in Illinois, lemon law applies to new cars within the first year or 12000 miles only.

 

[Usain]

I doubt that has anything to do with the recall. Dealers send those out as letters, postcards, emails. They are just beating the bushes to get used cars cheap. I bet they make no offer at all once they realize there is a "stop sale" on it, because the last thing they want is to take-up lot space with an un-sellable car.

That's one of the things that made me suspicious. I know for a fact that they had a Bolt on their used car lot after the recall. So I expect they would be aware of the "stop sale".

 

[Usain]

Yes, Munro basically acknowledged that he has made a significant amount of money off his TSLA investment.

As for Tesla "winning" if it is on even footing with GM, I don't agree. Not even close. Remember that GM's partnership with LG is a joint venture in the same way that the Gigafactory was a joint venture between Tesla and Panasonic, so they would still be on even footing.

Tesla will make its own 4680 batteries. They have announced Tesla-owned 4680 production lines in Nevada, Austin, and Berlin. They would not need to share the profits with any third party.

They will also continue to purchase batteries from third parties, but most 4680 production will be fully owned by Tesla.

 

[Usain]

Tesla just dropped $1000 off the price of their entry level Model 3 and Model Y. I wonder if that is in response to the big drop in Chevy Bolt prices. If it was about competing with the VW ID.4, I would expect price cuts to hold off until ID.4 is available.

Model 3 Standard Range+
Price: $36,990
Range: 263 miles

Model Y Standard Range
Price: $39,990
Range: 244 miles

Also, I'm betting US EV sales are going to be terrible this quarter because everyone is waiting to see what will happen with tax credits. I know I am.

 

[Jcray]

Tesla just dropped $1000 off the price of their entry level Model 3 and Model Y. I wonder if that is in response to the big drop in Chevy Bolt prices. If it was about competing with the VW ID.4, I would expect price cuts to hold off until ID.4 is available.

Maybe. Tesla does some weird things, like dropping the price of the Model S when Lucid came out with their pricing and they’re further from production than the ID.4.

 

[Cav1982]

Those of you who've put down deposits on Tesla, can you sit on this deposits indefinitely while you wait on the text credit?

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

 

[ga2500ev]

FYI...in Illinois, lemon law applies to new cars within the first year or 12000 miles only.

From what I've read here, GM isn't really following the mileage or time limits. I believe they are using the lemon laws more a guidance for remedies, not qualification.

So, the real question is what happens if a first/year, 12K car is declared a lemon? What has to be done to remedy the situation?

ga2500ev

 

[Usain]

Those of you who've put down deposits on Tesla, can you sit on this deposits indefinitely while you wait on the text credit?

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

I've been trying to nail down that point as well. In the agreement that you can click on before ordering, there is language that suggests you can delay delivery for up to three months. I saw someone else online who said 6 months. And, I'm not sure if ordering actually locks you into a price under their terms. I haven't put in my order yet.