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Clearly, there have always been poor studies. Sometimes it takes decades to be corrected. In this case, the studies were called out in days. The good news is that the preponderance of work is showing that masks and social distancing are the quickest, cheapest, and easiest means for individuals to protect others, and themselves, while still offering some hope of restarting our economies. More high tech measures are in the works, but still many months away.

Which studies are you referring to? Most studies I see and read show non-medical cloth masks (store bought and homemade) are ineffective or don't draw a conclusion. There is one study I can post later tonight where they mixed material and it was very effective as long as there was no gap. A gap between the skin and mask can reduce its effectiveness significantly.
 

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Absolutely. Sadly, decision makers have, for the most part, only been interested in hearing from economic experts, while ignoring experts in the sciences for too long.
Of course, that's coming from your privileged position as a retired person (I'm assuming a fairly secure income) who is biased towards reducing the R0 of spread.

I would not say that throwing the economy into the worst depression in a hundred years and creating the most unemployment ever is mostly only hearing from economic experts. Work is one of the elements that give purpose to our lives, and purpose is more important than living itself.
 

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Of course, that's coming from your privileged position as a retired person (I'm assuming a fairly secure income) who is biased towards reducing the R0 of spread.

I would not say that throwing the economy into the worst depression in a hundred years and creating the most unemployment ever is mostly only hearing from economic experts. Work is one of the elements that give purpose to our lives, and purpose is more important than living itself.
this is one of the stupidest things I have read from you. there is no purpose if there is no life. how do you you tell with a straight face the 124k + people who have died in this country who had purpose that it just their poor luck that their purpose was somehow just not enough so they should loose their life. you always frame this as it is an all or nothing proposition, that either everyone works or society crumbles. how about some scientific middle ground? since you do not read the news you probably have no idea that some countries are beating the virus and their economies are still working. that would be to much to ask of you to actually educate yourself. sick of your bumper sticker answers and wish you would crawl back in the hole you came from. and while you are there please read why we are the laughing stock of the world because half this country will not even wear a mask because it is not macho or inconvient like going to the ER is. please don't bother to answer me because I am not going to waste anymore time with you and will not read it anyway. you and people like you are the reason the USA is #1 (in Covid-19 cases and deaths).
 

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Of course, that's coming from your privileged position as a retired person (I'm assuming a fairly secure income) who is biased towards reducing the R0 of spread.

I would not say that throwing the economy into the worst depression in a hundred years and creating the most unemployment ever is mostly only hearing from economic experts. Work is one of the elements that give purpose to our lives, and purpose is more important than living itself.
That is coming from a parent who has two middle aged children, with medical conditions, who have to work with the public.

I have posted studies of previous pandemics, which showed that areas that did not lockdown to slow the spread ended up doing worse economically, than those that did. You insist on posing a false choice, between a wrecked economy with government intervention versus an imagined economy from a 1950s western.
 

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Which studies are you referring to? Most studies I see and read show non-medical cloth masks (store bought and homemade) are ineffective or don't draw a conclusion. There is one study I can post later tonight where they mixed material and it was very effective as long as there was no gap. A gap between the skin and mask can reduce its effectiveness significantly.
I have spent countless hours reading studies of masks. Homemade masks with three or more layers of readily available fabric are often 30% or less effective at protecting the wearer from infection, but over 50% effective in reducing transmission to others. Do you really prefer no protection while waiting for some possible vaccine?

And I am not arguing for homemade masks. I am arguing for a federal government driven mass production of N95 level masks to be handed out on street corners to all comers.
 

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You insist on posing a false choice, between a wrecked economy with government intervention versus an imagined economy from a 1950s western.
I'd invite you to quote any of my posts where I suggested a binary choice. It seems I've been extremely consistent saying that there are a variety of concerns which must be weighed, with a tough and imperfect decision required to be made. Since there is no solution that allows us to have our cake and eat it to, that necessarily means some (likely most) will think we've gone too far in one direction or another.

We're still in the very early stages of dealing with Covid-19, so any conclusions drawn now are premature.
 

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We're still in the very early stages of dealing with Covid-19, so any conclusions drawn now are premature.
We have a little data. You and many others, have pointed to Sweden as the model for a sensible response to COVID-19. Sweden's top health expert is very vocal about masks. His main complaint is, "masks may give infected people a false sense of security and even encourage the kind of hand-to-face contact that can spread the disease....What’s more, traffic data now show Swedes travel a lot less than their Nordic peers. That means Swedes may be less exposed to the virus than people living in places where strict lockdowns have been eased, he said."

It is my observation that Americans who don't wear masks don't social distance either, so I don't think that is a major concern. And here in central Virginia, I haven't see much reduction in joy riding by maskless supporters of "freedom." For the first several months, they were the only ones on the roads.



 

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I think we'll begin to have good evidence in about a year, and nearly conclusive evidence after 2. It's good to see a variety of policies and customs in place to evaluate their relative effectiveness and associated costs.

Not sure how to evaluate who is "joyriding" and who is attending to more important business by simple observation. Certainly there's no use wearing a mask while driving.
 

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I have spent countless hours reading studies of masks. Homemade masks with three or more layers of readily available fabric are often 30% or less effective at protecting the wearer from infection, but over 50% effective in reducing transmission to others. Do you really prefer no protection while waiting for some possible vaccine?

And I am not arguing for homemade masks. I am arguing for a federal government driven mass production of N95 level masks to be handed out on street corners to all comers.
The latest I have heard from Osterholm is that no one knows how much exposure it takes to catch covid so if you read a study that said a mask offers X% of transmission reduction it was a bad study, most studies I read stick to how many particles are blocked. I also don't think a vaccine is coming any time soon because we don't know how long immunity lasts for the people that have had it. N95s do work and if we got to a point were we didn't need to hoard them for medical personnel only then I think that would make a huge dent in the spread.
 

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Not sure how to evaluate who is "joyriding" and who is attending to more important business by simple observation. Certainly there's no use wearing a mask while driving.
Since everything was closed, they could have been going to the grocery store. But on our little road, most pull into the timber roads to drink beer, smoke, and leave diarrhea they wipe on fast food napkins.
 

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We have a little data. You and many others, have pointed to Sweden as the model for a sensible response to COVID-19. Sweden's top health expert is very vocal about masks. His main complaint is, "masks may give infected people a false sense of security and even encourage the kind of hand-to-face contact that can spread the disease....What’s more, traffic data now show Swedes travel a lot less than their Nordic peers. That means Swedes may be less exposed to the virus than people living in places where strict lockdowns have been eased, he said."

It is my observation that Americans who don't wear masks don't social distance either, so I don't think that is a major concern. And here in central Virginia, I haven't see much reduction in joy riding by maskless supporters of "freedom." For the first several months, they were the only ones on the roads.



What part of central Virginia may I ask? I use to live in Roanoke many many moons ago.
 

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Clearly, there have always been poor studies. Sometimes it takes decades to be corrected.
And sometimes even though it's corrected and condemned in the strongest possible terms, it still results in things like anti-vaxxer movements that refuse to see reason.

It's often less about what the a study or news article actually says and more about what people are looking for to justify their actions. Even if reputable media didn't make mistakes, those people would just turn to other sources to back them up.
 

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It's often less about what the a study or news article actually says and more about what people are looking for to justify their actions. Even if reputable media didn't make mistakes, those people would just turn to other sources to back them up.
I have had people tell me. "Scientists say bees can't fly, but they do anyway." for my entire adult life. For the last thirty years I have been trying to correct them, saying that was based on an aerodynamic study assuming bees had fixed wings like an airplane. Studies thirty years ago showed the wings move in a figure eight fashion making their flight possible, and completely within the normal laws of aerodynamics. I have no doubt these folks continued to tell their "just so" story anyway.
 

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... and I keep reminding folks that science isn't a collected set of conclusions set in stone, but a process for making observations that control for as many variables as possible and using those observations to make future or past predictions. Furthermore, science says nothing about what should be done. It contains no value system by definition.
 

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Ok, I wasn't in that area a lot but I was familiar with it when I was there. Here is that mask study I was talking about as well

Yes. The homemade masks my wife made three months ago are three layers thick. The outer is fine count woven poly/cotton, and the inner two layers are tight cotton knit. She modified the CDC pattern to include a formable nose wire, which greatly improved the upper fit. I shaved my beard to improve the seal around my chin. Feels pretty strange after being bearded most of my adult life. The few times I have been in a public building, I wore my N95 respirator, with a three layer fabric cover to improve filtration, and cover the exhaust vents to protect others.
 

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As I have been saying for some time, if you want to know the actual death rate for COVID-19, you can't do better than Iceland.

population 340,994

cases/M 5,287

deaths/M 29

tests/m 169,000

We are looking at 0.54% fatalities.

New Zealand isn't quite as perfect for a test case, because of the very few cases, but still better than most.

population 5,002,100

cases/M 304

deaths/M 4

tests/m 73,655

We are looking at 1.31% fatalities.

 

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Yes. The homemade masks my wife made three months ago are three layers thick. The outer is fine count woven poly/cotton, and the inner two layers are tight cotton knit. She modified the CDC pattern to include a formable nose wire, which greatly improved the upper fit. I shaved my beard to improve the seal around my chin. Feels pretty strange after being bearded most of my adult life. The few times I have been in a public building, I wore my N95 respirator, with a three layer fabric cover to improve filtration, and cover the exhaust vents to protect others.
You certainly sound like you're very conscientious; a trait that seems to be in short supply.

I wore an N95 mask once and found it oppressive and difficult to breath in over the hours. It's been surgical masks for me ever since.
 

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I wore an N95 mask once and found it oppressive and difficult to breath in over the hours.
There's a version of N95 mask that has a vent. Makes breathing much easier. But, it doesn't protect anyone but the wearer as the vent allows ones breath to escape unencumbered. Hence wearing a cloth mask over the N95 that has the vent.
 
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