[redpoint5]

Dr. Campbell has been suggesting black people are impacted more due to vitamin D deficiency (dark skin inhibits vitamin D synthesis). His hypothesis is that having sufficient vitamin D gives a person a leg up on being capable of surviving the disease. Since it's summer for most people in the world, the hypothesis that vitamin D boosts the immune systems ability to fight the disease makes sense considering the increased spread and decreased mortality. If we begin to see increasing mortality in Australia and New Zealand that would further support the hypothesis. Of course, one could supplement with vitamin D as a precaution rather than spend time in the sun.

 

[GJETSON]

The low hanging fruit gets hit first.

Virginia clusters

Dillwyn Correctional Center — Dillwyn, Va. 359

Greensville Correctional Center — Jarratt, Va. 309

Haynesville Correctional Center — Haynesville, Va. 265

Galax, Va. 263

Tyson Foods poultry processing facility — Temperanceville, Va. 257

State Farm Correctional Complex — State Farm, Va. 188

Buckingham Correctional Center — Dillwyn, Va. 174

Emporia, Va. 141

Accordius Health nursing home — Harrisonburg, Va. 106

Deerfield Correctional Center — Capron, Va. 90

Sussex II State Prison — Waverly, Va. 86

Riverside Regional Jail — Prince George, Va. 83

Hampton Roads Regional Jail — Portsmouth, Va. 74

Virginia Correctional Center for Women — Goochland, Va. 74

Central Virginia Correctional Unit #13 — Chesterfield, Va. 60

Skyview Springs Rehab and Nursing Center — Luray, Va. 59

Norfolk City Jail — Norfolk, Va. 55

2,643 is only 4.8% of Virginia active cases

Virginia never bottomed out cases likes some states, and some countries. We did go down somewhat,and then leveled off about three weeks ago. Closer examination showed an overall drop in new cases, but a sharp climb in the eastern shore area...summer tourists. Deaths have started climbing again in the last week and a half. I assume a month from now we will see more stories about how partying at the shore has lead to a bunch of serious cases, and deaths....sex, booze/drugs, rock 'n' roll, and pandemics don't play well together. Mostly, it won't be the young revelers, but the folks they stumble into who will pay the price. [edit] Turns out that most of the increases in the eastern part of the state were from horrible chicken processing plants.

 

[GJETSON]

According to CDC data (below), COVID is basically over in terms of death rate.

Looking at new deaths/new cases for yesterday 07/04, and today 07/05

254/45,182 = 0.56%

213/36,454 = 0.58%

[edit]
07/06. and 07/08

379/50,584 = 0.75%

994/55,442 = 1.79%

United States Coronavirus: 2,975,883 Cases and 132,545 Deaths - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

This is only a snapshot, and the new cases and new deaths are obviously not the same group of people because of the weeks to reach an outcome. But it does give some hope that the ultimate death rate will be close to that of Iceland. Whether that is low enough for our economy to go back anywhere close to its previous level is a good question.

 

[GJETSON]

Not looking good for herd immunity.

Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity option

A Lancet study estimates that around just 5% of the Spanish population has developed antibodies.

www.bbc.com

 

[XJ12]

New Mexico started issuing a $100 fine for not wearing a mask. Finally, all these 20 somethings are wearing a mask.

 

[Sean Nelson]

New Mexico started issuing a $100 fine for not wearing a mask. Finally, all these 20 somethings are wearing a mask.

The those who detest government interventions are just making it worse for themselves by not doing the sensible thing. If most people wore masks voluntarily like good civic-minded citizens then there wouldn't be a need to mandate them.

Masks were never mandated here in British Columbia until we reopened, and now they're just required for certain personal services business such as barbers, hair salons, etc. So far we're doing pretty well (fingers crossed...).

It's just as Tom Hanks said: "The idea of doing one’s part should be so simple: wear a mask, social distance, wash your hands. That alone means you are contributing to the betterment of your house, your work, your town, your society as a whole. And it's such a small thing ... it's a mystery to me somehow that has been wiped out of what should be ingrained in the behavior of us all.”

 

[GJETSON]

And it's such a small thing ... it's a mystery to me somehow that has been wiped out of what should be ingrained in the behavior of us all.”

Starting around 1980, I stopped seeing people referred to as citizens, but rather as consumers.

"There is no such thing as society"

Margaret Thatcher, 1987

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths

covid19.healthdata.org

 

[GJETSON]

As if we weren't stupid enough.

“Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic – remains to be seen,”

Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage

Scientists warned on Wednesday of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggested COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.

www.reuters.com

 

[mdwill]

The those who detest government interventions are just making it worse for themselves by not doing the sensible thing. If most people wore masks voluntarily like good civic-minded citizens then there wouldn't be a need to mandate them.

Masks were never mandated here in British Columbia until we reopened, and now they're just required for certain personal services business such as barbers, hair salons, etc. So far we're doing pretty well (fingers crossed...).

It's just as Tom Hanks said: "The idea of doing one’s part should be so simple: wear a mask, social distance, wash your hands. That alone means you are contributing to the betterment of your house, your work, your town, your society as a whole. And it's such a small thing ... it's a mystery to me somehow that has been wiped out of what should be ingrained in the behavior of us all.”

Problem is that mask mandates like in California where there are no standards for the masks used are not showing results.

Covid Trends

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.

aatishb.com

 

[Sean Nelson]

WHO: Indoor airborne spread of coronavirus possible
Airborne spread “particularly in specific indoor locations, such as crowded and inadequately ventilated spaces over a prolonged period of time with infected persons cannot be ruled out,” WHO said.

Well, duh. Surely this is just common sense. Again, I use the "smoke test" as an analogy - when you're sharing a room with a smoker the smaller the space and the longer you spend in it, the more obnoxious it becomes. This is exactly why I always wear a mask indoors when I'm away from home.

 

[Sean Nelson]

68,100 new cases across the US on Friday July 10.

And pretty much right on schedule 3 weeks after the upturn in cases, the first week of increased deaths.

Past experience tells us there are another few weeks of increasing caseloads already in the pipeline even if renewed restrictions manage to stem the spread after that. Which means that deaths are likely to continue climbing for another month or two.

Let's hope that the big epicenters of the first wave of fatalities (prisons, meat packing plants, and especially nursing homes) have learned how to avoid the worst of their mistakes so that the death toll doesn't end up hitting new daily records the way the case counts are.

 

[GJETSON]

He won't make that mistake again.

"I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not."

"Those were the final words of a 30-year-old patient who died at Methodist Hospital in San Antonio, Texas, this week after attending a so-called "COVID party," according to the hospital's chief medical officer."

30-year-old dies after attending 'COVID party' thinking virus was a 'hoax'

Dr. Jane Appleby, chief medical officer for Methodist Hospital and Methodist Children’s Hospital, said in a recorded statement that the unidentified patient told nurses about the party, which she said is hosted by someone diagnosed with coronavirus. "The thought is people get together to see if

www.yahoo.com

 

[mdwill]

Ya, those covid parties are really stupid.
On a smarter note a new Osterholm update.

Episode 15: A Coronavirus Forest Fire

In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss the continued increase in cases throughout much of the United States, how other countries have managed the pandemic, the latest on aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the just released CIDRAP Viewpoint on COVID-19 surveillance. Email...

www.cidrap.umn.edu

 

[GJETSON]

On a smarter note a new Osterholm update.

Episode 15: A Coronavirus Forest Fire

In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss the continued increase in cases throughout much of the United States, how other countries have managed the pandemic, the latest on aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the just released CIDRAP Viewpoint on COVID-19 surveillance. Email...

www.cidrap.umn.edu

Pretty sad. The qualities/behaviors he lists, needed for a good outcome in the US, are AWOL.

 

[Sean Nelson]

"I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not."

Sadly, COVID deniers will probably declare this too as a hoax...

These are the same people who would stand on a beach after an earthquake and declare that there's nothing to worry about because the water is receding.

 

[GJETSON]

 

[GJETSON]

Glad I didn't rush out to a restaurant to save the economy. Seems like waiting has greatly improved my odds already. lol

"In this study, 229 patients were enrolled at trial sites in the United States; clinical improvement was defined as a ≥ 2-point improvement on a 7-point ordinal scale. Among these patients, rates of clinical improvement at Day 14 were 84 percent in African American patients (n=43), 76 percent in Hispanic white (HW) patients (n=17), 67 percent in Asian patients (n=18), 67 percent in non-Hispanic white (NHW) patients (n=119) and 63 percent in patients who did not identify with any of these groups (n=32)."

Gilead Presents Additional Data on Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir for the Treatment of COVID-19

Gilead Presents Additional Data on Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir for the Treatment of COVID-19

www.gilead.com

 

[Sean Nelson]

And it looks like there's some promise for a vaccine, albeit with some side effects:

Moderna coronavirus vaccine shows 'promising' safety and immune response
A Covid-19 vaccine developed by the biotechnology company Moderna in partnership with the National Institutes of Health has been found to induce immune responses in all of the volunteers who received it in a Phase 1 study.

 

[p7wang]

And it looks like there's some promise for a vaccine, albeit with some side effects:

Fortunately / unfortunately, depending on if you are one and how you feel about vaccine that has not gone through phase 3.

US Troops Would Be Among First to Get a Working COVID-19 Vaccine, Officials Say

Officials with Operation Warp Speed said while the goal is January 2021, they can't "promise 100% chance of success."

www.military.com

we're not the first, though...

China approves experimental coronavirus vaccine for military use

The Chinese government has approved the use of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine for the country's military -- the latest step in a global race to stop the deadly disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

www.cnn.com

 

[redpoint5]

Glad I didn't rush out to a restaurant to save the economy. Seems like waiting has greatly improved my odds already. lol

No, you'll die. 100% certainty. Your odds just as bleak.