[Sean Nelson]

A study locally here in Vancouver, British Columbia suggests that 8 times more people have actually been infected than the officially confirmed case numbers suggest. The study was done by testing samples from the Red Cross blood bank, so it has the value of being a fairly randomized sample.

Study suggests 8 times more people in B.C. infected with virus than confirmed
If the study’s prevalence rate is applied to the whole provincial population, it could mean about 28,000 people have had the novel coronavirus, while 3,149 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed to date, however Dix noted the results are specific to the Vancouver area.

 

[GJETSON]

No, you'll die. 100% certainty. Your odds just as bleak.

If you are in a hurry, go for it. I am all for right to die. I suggest straight medical grade nitrogen. Our evolved suffocation sensor is looking for nitrogen. You won't even notice. lol

 

[GJETSON]

A study locally here in Vancouver, British Columbia suggests that 8 times more people have actually been infected than the officially confirmed case numbers suggest. The study was done by testing samples from the Red Cross blood bank, so it has the value of being a fairly randomized sample.

Yup. That is close to other estimates. So we are about one tenth of the way to the imagined "herd immunity", or well over a million dead...just like the flu.

 

[Curt]

In California, cases are way up from their lows, by as much as 10x. But deaths are another story. Once would expect them to go up 10x, but the average death rate has remained nearly unchanged since mid April, including since reopening began in mid May. I think this puts a damper on the idea that there will be over a million dead in the US.

We've not heard about any revolutionary new care methods that might account for this. What are some theories? The only one I can come up with is that the rate of infections remains constant but the amount of testing has gone up. There is a pretty linear correlation of case count to test count (although the rate increase started mid May after the reopening began).

 

[GJETSON]

In California, cases are way up from their lows, by as much as 10x. But deaths are another story. Once would expect them to go up 10x

I think this puts a damper on the idea that there will be over a million dead in the US.

The reason all countries saw a huge spike in deaths originally, and the death rate has continued to drop has several causes. In the beginning, nobody knew if the virus had arrived in their area, and huge numbers of vulnerable people got sick, and died before anybody had their act together. For instance, in Virginia where we live, counties with, nursing homes, prisons, and large churches got hit hard initially. Older people, and those with medical conditions died in large numbers....the low hanging fruit. This is why we have seen crazy death percentages of 10-20%. No medical professionals ever though this was the real death rate for the whole population.

In every country those percentages would continue to drop until most of the citizens are infected, and we see the real death rate over an entire population. The best estimates for that rate for COVID-19 are under 1%. If we don't get a vaccine, eventually most people will get infected. In the case of the US, 0.5% of 331 million is 1.7 million. The percentage of the population that needs to get infected to stop a virus depends on many factors, including the level, and longevity of immunity after infection. If this virus acts like the common cold virus, we will never be rid of it.

We are getting better at treating the infection, and that alone will drive the number of dead down.

 

[Sean Nelson]

In California, cases are way up from their lows, by as much as 10x. But deaths are another story. Once would expect them to go up 10x, but the average death rate has remained nearly unchanged since mid April, including since reopening began in mid May.

The daily death rate in California has started to increase in the last 2 weeks, which is what you'd expect given the big surge in cases that started around the middle of June. I suspect that the slow increase in caseload through May and early June was probably hitting less vulnerable people, but that it's now become so widespread that it's overflowing into the vulnerable population as well.

The national death rate remained pretty steady until the last couple of weeks as well, but when you look closer you can see that it's because the falling rates in the states that halted the virus have been offsetting the rising rates in the states where the virus has been spreading. And now the sharp rise in death rates in those afflicted states has made its influence on national figures as well.

Here's a pretty comprehensive treatment of death rates from The Atlantic:
A Second Coronavirus Death Surge Is Coming

Just remember, you read it here first.

 

[redpoint5]

My WAG from the beginning has been 200k deaths in the US. We'll probably go over that, but my guess is that we'll be closer to my number than a million.

I see death rates trending upwards based on graphs, and expect that to continue as deaths lag new cases by several weeks.

There still seems to be something about vitamin D that explains several observable facts about death rates. Don't know why there isn't a study that evaluates vitamin D levels in the deceased covid patients to see if there is a correlation.

 

[Sean Nelson]

My WAG from the beginning has been 200k deaths in the US.

It's impossible to know right now what to expect because of the three huge factors that nobody can predict:

• How will the politicians and the public conduct themselves?
• When, if ever, will we get an effective treatment for people who become infected?
• When, if ever, will we get an effective vaccine to prevent infections?

Right now it's the first of those that accounts for the vast difference in impacts among different countries. But the answers to the last two have will a far bigger influence on what the ultimate toll will be.

 

[Sean Nelson]

...and while on the topic of "effective treatments", here's some encouraging news about how the ICU death rate is dropping:

ICU deaths from COVID-19 may be decreasing, study suggests
A recent study suggests that for people admitted to intensive care units for severe COVID-19 infection, the rate of death has declined by about one-third since the start of the pandemic.

 

[redpoint5]

Probably we're doing a better job of protecting the most vulnerable populations than previously.

 

[RichardC]

I've given up guessing. It is fruitless especially if you use the data to be irresponsible. The facts are deaths rates are climbing again and can be tied directly to states that opened up to early with little to no precautions in place. Even states like WA. which had some success are seeing case and death rates rise, especially in the non-metro areas of Eastern WA. among fruit pickers and meat packers.
You also don't need to die from the virus to be effected for life. There are reports of organ damage that will probably scar people for life. Furthermore what happens when we get the seasonal flu on top of Covid-19 this fall?
The facts are hospitals in some areas are again being swamped, refrigerator trucks are on standby and health care workers are being martyred because some people think it is un- manly or inconvenient to wear a mask. I guess some people think their so called liberty is more important than the collective good. These people are selfish, immature, and quite frankly stupider than a rock.
So no matter if the death rate is 1% or .5%. Most of this was preventable if this country had real leadership from the top on down and not a patch work of states and counties doing their own thing. Would you hire an ER doctor or epidemiologist to run your presidential campaign? Probably not. So why do we have politicians with zero infectious disease experience over riding basic health protocols? Now teachers are "heroes" as they are being led to the slaughter with no federal help to school districts. The rhetoric is so cheap and brazen.
Brazil and the USA are the laughing stock and shame of the world. That is the only statistic that matters to me.
YOU DO NOT HAVE THE "RIGHT" OR LIBERTY TO KILL A HEALTH CARE WORKER BECAUSE YOU ARE A STUPID SLOB.

 

[redpoint5]

To think that the POTUS could have prevented a pandemic after China let it loose is simply tribalistic diatribe. Anyone with the ability to observe or to reason can see that the entire globe was hit, and that's the nature of this novel virus.

The one most responsible for your health, is you. If you're looking to scream at someone else, you've got a rough go of whatever is left of your life.

At the moment, the US is #8 for covid deadliness in the world. We're behind San Marino, Belgium, Andorra, UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, and France. Who knows where we'll end up since this is the early stages of the disease.

 

[Curt]

The graph I posted (above, valid through yesterday) does not corroborate an alarming increase in death rates in California, at least not yet. These numbers are provisional, so they may increase as additional fatalities are tabulated. We'll see in less than one week.

The CDC provisional death rate for the US shows a steep weekly decline (second column below). CDC tabulation is especially slow, so the numbers in the most recent 2-3 weeks go up a lot every few days. For example, I estimate the figure for the week of 7/11 will top out under 120% of expected deaths, and the figure for deaths from all causes at 60,000. Each of these extrapolates the 413 COVID-19 deaths to 1,300 that week (2% of all deaths).

Unfortunately, the HHS's move to a new data collection method may destabilize the CDC reported data, and the last thing we need now is any trust issue with the basic data.

 

[Sean Nelson]

I've given up guessing. It is fruitless especially if you use the data to be irresponsible.

No one knows what's going to happen, but there's little doubt that with most people still lacking immunity the virus has a huge potential for carnage. It's not a choice between the economy and the virus, it's a choice between opening as much as we can safely with people acting responsibly vs. a huge death toll that will scare people away and kill the economy.

To think that the POTUS could have prevented a pandemic after China let it loose is simply tribalistic diatribe. ... The one most responsible for your health, is you. If you're looking to scream at someone else, you've got a rough go of whatever is left of your life.

At the moment, the US is #8 for covid deadliness in the world. We're behind San Marino, Belgium, Andorra, UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, and France. Who knows where we'll end up since this is the early stages of the disease.

He couldn't have prevented it, but he sure could have ameliorated it. Comparing the US to the 8 worst countries in the world is damning with faint praise. There are a lot more advanced economies who have done far better than the US, and if Trump had put the country first instead of himself he could certainly have made a difference. He commands the loyalty of a solid 35-40% of the country, as well as a large swath of state leaders who follow his example. And he's been setting exactly the wrong example and way too many people are taking their lead from him. Especially those state governors who are inexplicably doubling down on obviously dangerous policies (Georgia and Florida come to mind).

I agree that individuals need to take responsibility for themselves, but we have responsibilities to each other as well. And nothing demonstrates this better than a pandemic. My chances of contracting COVID are heavily influenced by its prevalence in the population, and its prevalence depends on the behaviour of everyone. I can take a lot of steps to protect myself, but I still need to venture into public to buy groceries, access health care, etc. Your actions affect me, and mine affect you. Let's all agree to take care of each other instead of (and this isn't directed at you, red) abandoning common sense to promote pandemic denial as a ridiculous political statement that endangers everyone.

 

[GJETSON]

My WAG from the beginning has been 200k deaths in the US. We'll probably go over that, but my guess is that we'll be closer to my number than a million.

OK. The math behind surpassing one million deaths in the US has been laid out several times on this forum. I am curious what you think will happen in September, at ~200K to make that stop. As you say, it is your WAG, but is there any basis for it, other than wishful thinking?

 

[Sean Nelson]

Every U.S. state is accumulating new virus cases at a faster clip than Canada. Yep, all 50
On a per capita basis, the coronavirus crisis in the United States is so bad that all 50 states are logging more new cases than Canada is. Every single state. That ranges from Québec’s placid neighbour Vermont, where the seven-day average for new cases (per person) is only 1.3 times worse than Canada’s; to Florida, where the new case rate is a jarring 65 times worse than Canada’s.

 

[GJETSON]

It is not surprising that we have bunch of cases, and deaths. We are a very populous country, so being at the top of the list with Brazil, India, and Mexico is not that surprising...until you look at China. You could argue they are hiding cases, but I don't think that begins to explain the disparity.

To get a more balanced impression, you need to look at deaths/M. There are six modern, western democracies that have been worse off than us from the beginning...Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, and France. They are all 2 to 4 time worse on a deaths/case basis too. Canada has had 8% of closed cases end in death so far, while the US is at 7%.

This pandemic is exacting a huge toll on the whole world. Which social, and political systems will come out in better shape in the end is a big question.

 

[Sean Nelson]

To get a more balanced impression, you need to look at deaths/M. There are six modern, western democracies that have been worse off than us from the beginning...Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, and France. They are all 2 to 4 time worse on a deaths/case basis too. Canada has had 8% of closed cases end in death so far, while the US is at 7%.

Pointing at the worst of the bunch and boasting "we're not as bad as those guys!" seems pretty lame to me. Canada's per capita death rate (2.4 per million) is only about half of the US's (4.3 per million), and there are a lot more first-world countries that are head and shoulders above us. Germany and Denmark are around 1 per million, while Finland, Norway, Israel, Japan, Australia, and Singapore are all well under that. Heck, even Brazil is (marginally) better than the US.

So yeah, the US has large numbers is because of its large population. But the average American is still at least twice as likely to die as the citizens of most other countries around the world, and 10 times more likely to die than in my home province of British Columbia, where both the government and the citizens have effectively joined forces to fight the virus.

 

[GJETSON]

Pointing at the worst of the bunch and boasting "we're not as bad as those guys!" seems pretty lame to me. Canada's per capita death rate (2.4 per million) is only about half of the US's (4.3 per million), and there are a lot more first-world countries that are head and shoulders above us. Germany and Denmark are around 1 per million, while Finland, Norway, Israel, Japan, Australia, and Singapore are all well under that. Heck, even Brazil is (marginally) better than the US.

So yeah, the US has large numbers is because of its large population. But the average American is still at least twice as likely to die as the citizens of most other countries around the world, and 10 times more likely to die than in my home province of British Columbia, where both the government and the citizens have effectively joined forces to fight the virus.

Thanks for the link. You moved the decimal point the wrong way. It's actually hundreds per million in both countries. If you got the impression I was boasting, I am sorry. I was merely pointing out we are not the only failed state among western democracies, hollowed out by forty years of neoliberal piracy. The US is officially a sh_thole country by many measures now.

Hawaii is doing pretty good, with 14 deaths per million residents, and the weather is way better than BCs. .

 

[redpoint5]

I'm guessing US obesity is a factor in mortality rate. If infection rates are the same, I expect the heavier population to fare worse, as it's a comorbidity factor.