Chevy Bolt EV Forum banner

741 - 760 of 1134 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
128 Posts
But if you define "community masking" based off of state mandates, as you have been implying, then your data set is flawed. As @GJETSON pointed out earlier in this thread, a state can mandate all it wants until it's blue in the face, but if members of community don't buy in as a whole, masking becomes useless because the virus is certainly free to spread among the community members who do not buy in to the best practice guidelines.
I have given you data for CA and MN in the states and data from an epidemiologist for Spain and the Czech Republic. Let's go with your assumption that people are ignoring the mandates. Well here are the penalties so are you saying that CA and MN are not enforcing the mandates or maybe they are not working because we don't have standards and the until recently the CDC has been pushing back against aerosol spread?

MN mask mandate penalty individuals who do not comply could face a petty misdemeanor, with a fine up to $100. Businesses (and their owners and management) face heightened penalties, including up to 90 days in jail, $1,000 fine and up to $25,000 in civil penalties, along with regulatory enforcement actions. State officials said they hope the public will voluntarily comply with the order and enforcement is not the goal.
CA mask mandate penalty
Beverly Hills: $100 fine for the first offense, $200 for second, $500 for third and subsequent offenses
Calabasas: $100 for first violation
Claremont: First-time offenders will be given a warning and offered a face mask. After that, fines would start at $100. People in exempt categories will not be cited.
Compton: Violators will get a written warning for the first violation, $500 fine for a second violation, $750 for a third violation, and $1,000 for the fourth.
Contra Costa County: $100 fine for an individual's first violation, $200 for second and $500 for third; $250 for a business's first violation, $500 for second and $1,000 for third
Costa Mesa: $100 fine
Duarte: $100 for first offenses, $200 for second offenses, and $500 for every subsequent violation within a one-year period from the initial offense
Fremont: $100 fine
Glendale: $400 for the first fine, $1,000 for the second fine and $2,000 for the third
Hermosa Beach: Citations will come with fines of $100 for the first violation, $200 for a second violation and $500 for each subsequent violation of the face mask requirement within a one-year period.
Irvine: Penalties up to $500 per day
Manhattan Beach: $100 for the first violation, $200 for the second and $350 for subsequent violations
Marin County: Fines between $25 and $500 for individuals, and between $250 to $10,000 for businesses
Monterey: $100 for first violation
Napa County: Fines between $25 and $500 for individuals, and between $250 to $10,000 for businesses
Salinas: $100 for first violation, $500 for second and $1,000 for subsequent
Santa Monica: $100 fine for an individual's first violation, $250 for second and $500 for third; $500 for a business's first violation, $750 for second and $1,000 for third
West Hollywood: $300 for first violation
Yolo County: Fine between $25 and $500 for individuals; fine between $250 to $10,000 for businesses
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,092 Posts
...a state can mandate all it wants until it's blue in the face, but if members of community don't buy in as a whole, masking becomes useless because the virus is certainly free to spread among the community members who do not buy in to the best practice guidelines.
And communities can buy into mask wearing and behaviours which suppress transmission enough that mask mandates never have to be issued in the first place.

You can't use mandates as a data point, you have to use actual observed behaviours.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,314 Posts
a state can mandate all it wants until it's blue in the face, but if members of community don't buy in as a whole, masking becomes useless because the virus is certainly free to spread among the community members who do not buy in to the best practice guidelines.
Exactly. I see the majority of people here in central Virginia not following the guidelines. Either they go about as if the virus didn't exist, or they have a cloth mask which they wear some of the time, and often with their noses hanging out the top. They are three feet apart, chatting away, imagining their homemade mask is totally effective. This is all as you would expect. People ignore or poorly follow the guidelines, and they get away with it for months, because fewer than one in a hundred of the people they pass might actually be infectious. Their take away is not that they are lucky, but that their slipshod precautions work.

I think that the guidelines do work, in those few countries that have actually made the effort. For most countries, the only workable solution will be technological...treatments, and vaccines. Without these, their economies will not recover.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,103 Posts
I have given you data for CA and MN in the states and data from an epidemiologist for Spain and the Czech Republic. Let's go with your assumption that people are ignoring the mandates. Well here are the penalties so are you saying that CA and MN are not enforcing the mandates or maybe they are not working because we don't have standards and the until recently the CDC has been pushing back against aerosol spread?
I'm not saying that CA and MN are not enforcing the mandates. I'm saying that mask mandates do NOT equate to community compliance. Truly meaningful data would be to show how many individuals are actually using masks and practicing the proper health standards in these states.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,103 Posts
And communities can buy into mask wearing and behaviours which suppress transmission enough that mask mandates never have to be issued in the first place.

You can't use mandates as a data point, you have to use actual observed behaviours.
This is the point I wanted to communicate. Thank you for adding a very well-made point to this assertion that mandates by themselves are a meaningless data point without actual mask USE data.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,103 Posts
Exactly. I see the majority of people here in central Virginia not following the guidelines. Either they go about as if the virus didn't exist, or they have a cloth mask which they wear some of the time, and often with their noses hanging out the top. They are three feet apart, chatting away, imagining their homemade mask is totally effective. This is all as you would expect. People ignore or poorly follow the guidelines, and they get away with it for months, because fewer than one in a hundred of the people they pass might actually be infectious. Their take away is not that they are lucky, but that their slipshod precautions work.

I think that the guidelines do work, in those few countries that have actually made the effort. For most countries, the only workable solution will be technological...treatments, and vaccines. Without these, their economies will not recover.
I made the mistake of picking up food to go from a local restaurant here in MD. Though the dine-in patrons were socially distanced, as mandated by the MD Governor, none of them were wearing masks. NONE. And of course they would argue that they needed to be off in order to eat, but only half of them were actually eating. The rest were done with their food and talking. This is in an enclosed space, and I would assume that the ventilation (air-exchange mechanisms) were not up to snuff in that restaurant. I almost left had I not already paid for the food.

Anyway yes, to your point, guidelines work, but only if close to 100% of the population believe and abide by these guidelines.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
128 Posts
I'm not saying that CA and MN are not enforcing the mandates. I'm saying that mask mandates do NOT equate to community compliance. Truly meaningful data would be to show how many individuals are actually using masks and practicing the proper health standards in these states.
I do understand that if people don't use the masks the data is useless and sadly I have not seen any data on compliance for indoor usage for any of the US states and I only know that Spain and Czech Republic have high compliance is due to Osterholm.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
128 Posts
I made the mistake of picking up food to go from a local restaurant here in MD. Though the dine-in patrons were socially distanced, as mandated by the MD Governor, none of them were wearing masks. NONE. And of course they would argue that they needed to be off in order to eat, but only half of them were actually eating. The rest were done with their food and talking. This is in an enclosed space, and I would assume that the ventilation (air-exchange mechanisms) were not up to snuff in that restaurant. I almost left had I not already paid for the food.

Anyway yes, to your point, guidelines work, but only if close to 100% of the population believe and abide by these guidelines.
This is a very good point. The idea that you require a mask to enter and then take it off later indoors as is the case for indoor dining/bars/Gyms is a very high level of cognitive dissonance. An example is MN having some of the highest numbers it has ever seen while at the same time allowing more seating in bars and indoor dining.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,314 Posts
Cuba is a pretty interesting case. They have been under one of the most severe embargos of any country on the planet, for sixty years. They have built an amazing educational system, and medical system with almost no outside help. They have developed immunotherapy drug treatments for cancer, similar to those President Carter received, and antiviral drugs, similar to those President Trump got. There is no getting around the fact that they are about destitute. But their very good basic public health measures, and their locally produced drugs, has meant their daily per capita infection rate is now 1/30 of ours, and their daily per capita death rate is 1/15 of ours.

Their deaths per capita have been comparable to Japan, which is 55 times lower than ours.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
128 Posts
Cuba is a pretty interesting case. They have been under one of the most severe embargos of any country on the planet, for sixty years. They have built an amazing educational system, and medical system with almost no outside help. They have developed immunotherapy drug treatments for cancer, similar to those President Carter received, and antiviral drugs, similar to those President Trump got. There is no getting around the fact that they are about destitute. But their very good basic public health measures, and their locally produced drugs, has meant their daily per capita infection rate is now 1/30 of ours, and their daily per capita death rate is 1/60 of ours.
There are a lot of countries that are like that currently
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,314 Posts
For many of the less developed countries, the tracking of cases is probably pretty poor. My favorites to watch are the developed nations of Asia, and the northern European countries. I think of these as the responsible countries. I think of the US, and the older colonial powers of Europe, as the "my dog ate my homework" group of nations. :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
420 Posts
The graph I showed was weekly and overall confirmed cases not new deaths. Also if you think a mask mandate with a second lockdown to get to these numbers weekly TX 28574 vs CA 22441 and overall TX 830207 vs CA 857076 made a big difference well that's up to you. And since you brought it up Weekly death TX 576 vs CA 431 and Overall death TX 17047 vs CA 16581.
You're comparing raw numbers, and not per-capita, which was what I posted. New cases are also tied much more closely to prevalence of testing, deaths are not so strongly affected by that.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,314 Posts
You are much more optimistic on a effective vaccine timeline then I am.
My understanding is that many of these vaccines are already being produced in large quantities, even before they prove effective. The idea being that governments will eat the loses to get them into the pipeline sooner. Six months is when I expect to see them going out to essential workers.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
128 Posts
My understanding is that many of these vaccines are already being produced in large quantities, even before they prove effective. The idea being that governments will eat the loses to get them into the pipeline sooner. Six months is when I expect to see them going out to essential workers.
My point is more on if any can get better than 40% protection and for how long that immunity will last. Remember the flu vaccines see around a 30 - 40% and per the FDA
The guidance also discusses the importance of ensuring that the sizes of clinical trials are large enough to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine. It conveys that the FDA would expect that a COVID-19 vaccine would prevent disease or decrease its severity in at least 50% of people who are vaccinated.
.
Once you have that then how long does it last? Will everyone need to get a shot every 3 months or every year? Finally add all the people unable/unwilling to get it for any reason and I don't think a vaccine will change much in 2021 and into 2022.

also this
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,314 Posts
My point is more on if any can get better than 40% protection and for how long that immunity will last. Remember the flu vaccines see around a 30 - 40% and per the FDA
.
Once you have that then how long does it last? Will everyone need to get a shot every 3 months or every year? Finally add all the people unable/unwilling to get it for any reason and I don't think a vaccine will change much in 2021 and into 2022.

also this

Absolutely. I don't need convincing that this virus may be one more development, in a long line of developments, turning the entire developed world into permanent sh_thole countries.

Dr. OsterHolm has been hammering on this for years. His most recent book, in 2017, made the case that we are foolishly spending billions on weapons, when it is infectious diseases that may well end our civilization...that we needed to be stockpiling equipment and supporting domestic industry making PPE, and medical research.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
128 Posts
Absolutely. I don't need convincing that this virus may be one more development, in a long line of developments, turning the entire developed world into permanent sh_thole countries.

Dr. OsterHolm has been hammering on this for years. His most recent book, in 2017, made the case that we are foolishly spending billions on weapons, when it is infectious diseases that may well end our civilization...that we needed to be stockpiling equipment and supporting domestic industry making PPE, and medical research.
I agree that division of labor on a global market (i.e. One country does all the manufacturing while another does all research) is very susceptible to these kinds of issues but I also don't think this will change which is why Musk is right and we need to become a space faring civilization as quickly as we can.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,314 Posts
I agree that division of labor on a global market (i.e. One country does all the manufacturing while another does all research) is very susceptible to these kinds of issues but I also don't think this will change which is why Musk is right and we need to become a space faring civilization as quickly as we can.
If you are counting on our leaving earth to ensure our survival as a species, you will be disappointed. If we can't solve the societal problems that are destroying this huge, totally self-supporting space craft, how will moving a handful of people to a totally hostile environment change anything? Unless you think a small group of one-percenters will get along better without the rest of us. I would be willing to bet Musk and Branson would strangler each other before they got past the moon. :ROFLMAO:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
128 Posts
If you are counting on our leaving earth to ensure our survival as a species, you will be disappointed. If we can't solve the societal problems that are destroying this huge, totally self-supporting space craft, how will moving a handful of people to a totally hostile environment change anything? Unless you think a small group of one-percenters will get along better without the rest of us. I would be willing to bet Musk and Branson would strangler each other before they got past the moon. :ROFLMAO:
Regardless of whether we as a species can ever get along (we can't btw) if we never leave earth we will cease to be. If it's not a super-bug, war, famine, or a meteor, The Sun will eventually grow cold and go out. When that happens, It'll take Lao-Tzu, and Einstein, and Gandhi, and Aristophanes, and all of this was for nothing. The Expanse series is more how humans in space would look like over anything like star trek.
 
741 - 760 of 1134 Posts
Top