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My wife spoke with her boss (owner of the clinic) and they want her to get the vaccine. Here's an instance where I believe the expert is wrong. There's been like 5 people in the entire world that has been reinfected, and it's not clear that the vaccine would have prevented reinfection, because the body's own immune system should provide the best defense in the first place. In fact, that's what the vaccine does; initiates the body to produce an immunological response to Covid so that it's prepared. What could prepare something for the enemy better than encountering the enemy?

Who knows what the risk calculus is. Perhaps delaying 1 at risk person from getting a vaccine has a 1 in 10,000 chance of a person dying, but it's not about 1 person being inoculated against the virus, it's more about reaching herd immunity so that they are removed as a source of disease spread. If the calculus is that 1/10,000th of a person dies due to a delayed vaccination, I believe that's still more risk than a person getting reinfected, since that calculus is something like 1 in 1,000,000,000.

I see a lot of sloppy thinking from so-called experts. Opinions like it's more important to hold half of the vaccines so that those who were vaccinated can get their 2nd scheduled injection and go from 85% immunity to 95% immunity, rather than double the number of people that have 85% immunity. The trials have already shown that zero people have died of Covid after taking only 1 dose. Even though people can still become infected after 1 dose, their symptoms have been much less severe.

I have heard no argument backed by evidence which runs counter to my thinking, only dogged adherence to the original plan with an explanation that we need to follow the plan, because that's the plan.
 

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The trials have already shown that zero people have died of Covid after taking only 1 dose. Even though people can still become infected after 1 dose, their symptoms have been much less severe.
The argument is that the double dose of vaccine revs up the immune system more than a mild infection, or a single dose of vaccine. People who have had mild cases, or single doses of vaccine may still carry, and spread the virus. And since they are still carrying the virus they are incubators for mutating the virus. Dead virus don't mutate.

We may know in several years which strategy works best to prevent the most deaths.
 

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The argument is that the double dose of vaccine revs up the immune system more than a mild infection, or a single dose of vaccine. People who have had mild cases, or single doses of vaccine may still carry, and spread the virus. And since they are still carrying the virus they are incubators for mutating the virus. Dead virus don't mutate.

We may know in several years which strategy works best to prevent the most deaths.
It's still a weaker argument. What incubates and mutates more virus; a previously exposed person (either via vaccine or infection), or a person that has no immunity at all? I don't need to be an epidemiologist to know the answer to that. Reducing the R0 is the highest priority; there is no higher priority. 2nd round vaccination can still be administered after 1st round is completed within the population.

I may be willing to get vaccinated at the very end when it's readily available to all who want it. It probably won't matter by then because we'd have herd immunity and Covid will likely be on its extinction spiral. If the data suggests otherwise, I'm perfectly fine adjusting my assessment.
 

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It probably won't matter by then because we'd have herd immunity and Covid will likely be on its extinction spiral. If the data suggests otherwise, I'm perfectly fine adjusting my assessment.
There is good reason to suspect that this particular corona virus, like others, the flu and the common cold for example, will continue to mutate, and return year after year.
 

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There is good reason to suspect that this particular corona virus, like others, the flu and the common cold for example, will continue to mutate, and return year after year.
The closest example we have to the current Coronavirus 2 is the previous Coronavirus 1, which is extinct. There's no evidence to suggest we'll be living with endless outbreaks of variants of the current disease, though it is a possibility. An R0 held below 1 means it will go extinct.

New record today with 4,200 deaths. New record for infections too, so we're looking at higher yet daily deaths in the coming weeks.

Since speculation is entertaining, I'll guess that this 3rd wave will peak at the end of the month and fall around the middle of February. The R0 will go below 1 by the end of February/middle of March. Entering summer we'll be mostly back to business as usual, and by fall daily deaths will be in the 2-digits. Covid will no longer be in the news except for slow news days.
 

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An R0 held below 1 means it will go extinct.

I'll guess that this 3rd wave will peak at the end of the month and fall around the middle of February.
Unless you see vaccinations at high levels across the world, it will not happen. And there are multiple animal vectors at this point.

Mid-February we hit 500K dead, and it starts leveling off from there.

 

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I see you are dabbling in the markets. I have a longtime friend who, like me, is a blue collar, socialist, libtard. He retired several years ago... Rather than buy windmill and solar stock, like we did, he found a place that looked legit to buy some Bitcoin. He bought 100 at $850 each. He is not sorry he did. Hard work pays off :ROFLMAO:
This must have been what was the final straw to get my delayed butt into gear. Today, after wondering how much solar electricity credit I had banked, I finally found out I have 800 kWh that expire at the end of March. Then thinking that I'm better off running free electricity to heat the house than burning gas, I upped that idea to doing something profitable with that electricity.

My occupation has provided me valuable computer hardware which would be unethical for me to sell, but cannot be utilized for work related purposes... so I'm thinking I should mine cryptocurrency, while heating the house, with free electricity.

Googling the hardware specs, the estimate is $100/mo passive income. Not too shabby, and I get to learn some new stuff! I might break this out into it's own thread, though I tend to just talk about very tangent thoughts in existing threads when people provide the opportunity.
 

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Nope, not going there. It comes naturally to me to acknowledge that Covid likely removes the least productive and least resilient among us, but the point of life isn't merely to produce, just as the point of life isn't merely to occupy time. There is an intrinsic value to life that transcends both time and productivity.
 

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In some places in the US, vaccine distribution sounds like a complete #$%$show!

Coronavirus has an account from a retired physician (I have seen his medical-related posts in that thread before so I'm pretty sure he is a legit doctor) from receiving his 1st shot at the San Diego health dept. Oh boy. :(

As he points out, it is very much YMMV depending on where the vaccine is being administered.

We are not doing well here in CA now. About COVID-19 restrictions shows that he Southern CA region has 0% ICU capacity.
 

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"Fleet MPG declines: A new report says gas mileage for new vehicles dropped and pollution increased in the model year 2019 for the first time in five years. The mileage increase comes as Americans continue to buy SUVs and trucks, shifting away from more efficient vehicles."

"Sweden’s coronavirus strategy has changed. To combat the pandemic, the government this week proposed an emergency law that would allow it to lock down large parts of society; the first recommended use of face masks came into force, and the authorities gave schools the option to close for pupils older than 13."

 

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Enjoyed this hopeful documentary about sequestering carbon while improving soil, air , water, and biodiversity.


Reminded me of this amazing earlier movie

 

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@redpoint5,

Sorry if I am stepping on your announcement. I know you listen to Dr, Campbell, and feel his insights are better than those of the WHO, CDC, etc. He said, just now, that Sweden's strategy of herd immunity clearly did not work.

 

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He said, just now, that Sweden's strategy of herd immunity clearly did not work.
Nothing will work against a virus that was intentionally released because China has the only population with some degree of herd immunity. Come on, get with the conspiracy program! ;)
 

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@redpoint5,

Sorry if I am stepping on your announcement. I know you listen to Dr, Campbell, and feel his insights are better than those of the WHO, CDC, etc. He said, just now, that Sweden's strategy of herd immunity clearly did not work.
I'm a bit behind in my listening today due to meetings and other tasks requiring more attention. I'll get to it soon.

I appreciate Dr. Campbell's commitment to facts and willingness to change opinion as those facts become more clear. I trust that he's less corrupted by political/tribal motivations than most. The larger an organization is, the more susceptible to political ideology they become.

It's why I keep saying that science isn't a conclusion, it's a process. There isn't a group of people that we can all point to and say that science has validated their political positions, because those realms do not occupy the same space. It's like saying green is the best number, and the data proves it by my strong emotion.

EDIT: watched video. John says Sweden's strategy failed because they are barely better off than the UK... that's a weak case that it was a failure, though I'm not dismissing the possibility that it was a sub-optimal strategy.

Here's some charts showing excess deaths due to Covid in the UK. We're almost up to WWII levels. Not to be dismissive of the tragedy, but there is a difference between 19 year old boys getting bombed and 85 year olds not making it to 86. The data I'm most interested to see is the change in life expectancy. If someone's life is cut a couple months shorter, that will have less impact than if they have it cut 40 years short.

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Interesting that 15 years and under had fewer deaths than the 5 year average. Also interesting that 85% of the elderly are still dying of other causes
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