[TotaledJetta]

I took a quick tour through the San Francisco 2020 car show a few days ago and it was hard to pick out the EV’s buried in a forest of huge gas guzzling pickups and SUV’s. The Ford exhibit symbolized this quite well. A week after introducing an EV SUV Mustang in LA, they couldn’t be bothered with displaying one at the SF Car show. GM had a Bolt, that looked a lot like my 2017, except for an increased range. Volkswagen had a E-Golf that looked the same as the 2017 version. Didn’t have time to look in all the nooks and crannies in the huge Mascone Center for the other EV’s. Maybe they fear the virtual collapse of the Dealer/Maintenance economy when low maintenance EV's become prominent in the industry. No plugs, no points, no transmission, no gas engine with pistons, rings, valves, cranks, oii, corrosive combustion products etc.

 

[p7wang]

It's fear of disrupting the existing business model. Well, not a problem, because the next car in my family will be a Tesla. The big auto makers can see their market share dwindled as more and more people switch to EVs. The fact that Tesla is engineering their cars for 1 million miles + robotaxi (meaning commercial use), means it will last for many decades. A few folks have already driven their Tesla 600K miles and had minimal repairs.

German Tesla Owner's Model S Hits 1 Million km - Tesla Motors Club

Hansjörg Gemmingen, a Tesla owner in Germany, has put more than 1 million km (621,000 miles) on his Tesla Model S. Gemmingen puts as much as 600 km a day on his 2013 Model S P85. The car has held up well with the exception of the battery pack and drive unit. The battery has...

teslamotorsclub.com

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/11/30/tesla-model-s-1-million-km/

This owner had to replace battery twice and motor 3 times.

"the most recent battery pack is going on almost half a million kilometers (310,000 miles) with very little battery degradation"

"Gemmingen’s latest drive unit has over 680,000 km on it."

 

[Vertiformed]

No plugs, no points, no transmission, no gas engine with pistons, rings, valves, cranks, oii, corrosive combustion products etc.

The Bolt has fixed-gear transmission with parking pawl, shifter mechanism and encoder, oil and an oil pump, two coolant loops, a radiator with variable air intake, two heaters and a compressor, electronic power-assisted steering, brake booster unit, low-emergency braking system, abs system, power inverter module, power distribution module, dc-dc converter, on-board charger, high voltage contactors, battery fuse/emergency disconnect, battery management system.

The Bolt is by some definitions “simpler” than a fossil-fuel vehicle, but open up a Bolt and there is still a lot going on. The reliability of the Bolt in the face of all of its complexity has been paid-for in large part by decades of experience building cars with internal-combustion engines. Mainstream mass-market fossil-fuel vehicles are generally very reliable, and some can head for a quick service (oil change and tire rotation) once a year.

Plus, we can have a pretty simple diagram explaining how a internal-combustion engine works, and in particular how the mix of fuel to air contributes to variable output power. But how well do you understand how the Bolt gets variable output power from its electric motor and battery? And, if you do get that one down, do you really know how regen puts energy back into the battery?

 

[SparkE]

{...} do you really know how regen puts energy back into the battery?

Don't the gerbils just run in the other direction in the wheel ??

 

[p7wang]

The Bolt has fixed-gear transmission with parking pawl, shifter mechanism and encoder, oil and an oil pump, two coolant loops, a radiator with variable air intake, two heaters and a compressor, electronic power-assisted steering, brake booster unit, low-emergency braking system, abs system, power inverter module, power distribution module, dc-dc converter, on-board charger, high voltage contactors, battery fuse/emergency disconnect, battery management system.

The Bolt is by some definitions “simpler” than a fossil-fuel vehicle, but open up a Bolt and there is still a lot going on. The reliability of the Bolt in the face of all of its complexity has been paid-for in large part by decades of experience building cars with internal-combustion engines. Mainstream mass-market fossil-fuel vehicles are generally very reliable, and some can head for a quick service (oil change and tire rotation) once a year.

Plus, we can have a pretty simple diagram explaining how a internal-combustion engine works, and in particular how the mix of fuel to air contributes to variable output power. But how well do you understand how the Bolt gets variable output power from its electric motor and battery? And, if you do get that one down, do you really know how regen puts energy back into the battery?

You forgot the mandatory Federal Emissions feature when used in non-CARB states. If you go home and your nostril is not full of soot, well that's just not living.

 

[Vertiformed]

You forgot the mandatory Federal Emissions feature when used in non-CARB states. If you go home and your nostril is not full of soot, well that's just not living.

You mean the mandatory emissions override system. And don't forget the AdBlack™ song from the non-CARB state commercials, “Two scoops of coal dust in a bottle of GM AdBlack goo”.

 

[Curt]

What? Are you sure you went to the right show? I visited this evening and was impressed by the large number of EVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids represented, compared to a couple years ago when there was virtually nothing. Orange high voltage cables abounded in engine compartments.

SAN FRANCISCO AUTO SHOW WILL HAVE RECORD AMOUNT OF ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLES ON DISPLAY

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – November 14, 2017 –The 60th Annual San Francisco International Auto Show will be an E-vent. With the “E” representing the latest in Electric and hybrid vehicles. More zero emission vehicles and their hybrid cousins will be featured than ever before in the displays of major...

www.sfautoshow.com

 

[redpoint5]

The dialog of this thread is naive or disingenuous; as if Big Oil controls everything, including their co-conspirators, the automotive industry.

People buy iPhones because that's what they want. Likewise, the automotive industry responds to consumer demand.

If people aren't busting down the doors of the dealerships to purchase EVs at a $7,500-$10,000 taxpayer subsidized discount, what chance do they have once those incentives are gone?

Can you imagine what would happen if taxpayers gave a $10,000 incentive to purchase a RAV4? 90% of vehicles sold would be the RAV4 in that scenario. Instead, we see 2% EV sales.

We've got a long way to go because batteries suck a lot compared to a fuel tank.

 

[XJ12]

Orange high voltage cables abounded in engine compartments.

I may need to research for investments in rodent control...

 

[XJ12]

what chance do they have once those incentives are gone?

as the price of batteries drop, there's a point where EVs will be cheaper than an equivalent ICE vehicle. that will be the incentive. and the batteries will be better. this will happen. there's no stopping it. all were discussing now is when.

 

[redpoint5]

as the price of batteries drop, there's a point where EVs will be cheaper than an equivalent ICE vehicle. that will be the incentive. and the batteries will be better. this will happen. there's no stopping it. all were discussing now is when.

Agreed, but a company can't be blamed for not wanting to put the cart before the horse.

... and what about the article that said more EVs and hybrids than ever before at the show? I haven't read it yet.

This just seems like another one of those threads where someone likes something and thinks everyone else should too, and if they don't, it's because of conspiracy.

 

[psyflyjohn]

Hey, we're in the middle of a revolution here ! Sorry it's not proceeding as quickly or smoothly as you would like. Car makers are stumbling through this, being led by Tesla. We're on the verge of a recession, car makers are stymied by the trade war and a totally unpredictable President. Can you blame them for being cautious? Buyers are squeezed economically, but being asked to pay exorbitant prices for a largely unproven and young technology. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show...

 

[Ldcarson]

I am the first in my family to go ev, started with a cmax energi, still have it and love it. I see the ev market as challenging, not because of the cars but the lack of a realistic charging infrastructure, and educating people who immediately want to talk about range anxiety. My parents are good example of this. My dad drove my Bolt, the first time he has ever drove an ev. He loved how quiet it was, the tech and acceleration, he dislikes how small it is, and asked about the range, how it charges and what happens on trips. Where do u go to charge, and how long.

its the same conversation I have with people all the time. He charged my bolt for the first time, I haven’t even driven it yet, but he has slowly been driving it, and I had to walk him through the how to charge. Several neighbors have come over to talk to him about the car, there is interest but then it turns to, how do you charge, where do you charge when traveling etc....

it’s educating the public and more gov incentives with private enterprise to put a robust charging system truly everywhere, the batteries and cars will come and get better, but without the infrastructure it will be difficult to get anyone to convert.

 

[wonderbolt]

What? Are you sure you went to the right show? I visited this evening and was impressed by the large number of EVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids represented, compared to a couple years ago when there was virtually nothing. Orange high voltage cables abounded in engine compartments.

SAN FRANCISCO AUTO SHOW WILL HAVE RECORD AMOUNT OF ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLES ON DISPLAY

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – November 14, 2017 –The 60th Annual San Francisco International Auto Show will be an E-vent. With the “E” representing the latest in Electric and hybrid vehicles. More zero emission vehicles and their hybrid cousins will be featured than ever before in the displays of major...

www.sfautoshow.com

You do realize the article you quoted was talking about the auto show in 2017, not 2019, correct?

 

[cwerdna]

The fact that Tesla is engineering their cars for 1 million miles + robotaxi (meaning commercial use), means it will last for many decades. A few folks have already driven their Tesla 600K miles and had minimal repairs.

LOL! Hang on long enough on "TMC" and you'll find their reliability record is pretty spotty at best and DISMAL on the Model X.

I can point you to 3 folks who have been thru at least 7 drive units on their Model S (usually due to noise). I can point you to at least a 1.5 dozen Model 3 DU failures (as in no propulsion) already from my intermittent monitoring in the past. Every now and then I spot new ones.

I can point you to numerous battery pack replacements on S and 3.

I've been on MyNisssanLeaf since mid-2011 + a few Leaf FB groups starting a few years ago. On Leaf, we don't see drive unit failures. I can't think of even 5 that have been replaced for any reason (noise or anything else). We also don't see battery pack replacements for failure, only for degradation (gradual capacity loss). Sure, there are a few (tiny set) of folks w/a bad module, which gets replaced but it's nothing like the replacements I was seeing before the 3 was sold in quantity or before the 3 existed.

Tesla and Elon are all about hype. See my responses below:

Official Tesla Model 3 thread - Page 353 - My Nissan Leaf Forum

mynissanleaf.com

TSLA corporate outlook - Page 146 - My Nissan Leaf Forum

mynissanleaf.com

Official Tesla Model S thread - Page 348 - My Nissan Leaf Forum

mynissanleaf.com

 

[redpoint5]

LOL! Hang on long enough on "TMC" and you'll find their reliability record is pretty spotty at best and DISMAL on the Model X.

Are these observations taking into account that Tesla sells 25x more EVs than Nissan? Not saying Tesla doesn't have problems, just stating that the sheer number sold alone will result in more reports of problems.

 

[cwerdna]

Are these observations taking into account that Tesla sells 25x more EVs than Nissan? Not saying Tesla doesn't have problems, just stating that the sheer number sold alone will result in more reports of problems.

Yes, because most of those observations were made well before Tesla ramped up production of the 3, and some before the 3 even existed (when Tesla's unit sales were relatively small and not "25x" that of Nissan).

Leaf is (or was) still the world's best selling EV in terms of worldwide cumulative sales. And yes, it will be passed by the Model 3 soon.

Re: Model X, please note that as I posted at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/potential-long-term-owner-need-advice.175388/#post-4249042, the Model X continues to be in the bottom 10 of reliability in Consumer Reports, as it's been from the beginning. This isn't due to sheer numbers. Tesla doesn't sell many X's and statistically, they're a reliability disaster.

Not everything is rosy over on the Tesla side, in general. Half shafts are expensive to replace on the S: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...ing-me-a-bundle-to-fix-out-of-warranty.93857/. Besides the disastrous doors on the X, numerous folks were getting their half shafts replaced under warranty: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/acceleration-shudder.74184/.

We're starting to see this on the S:

Cracked forelink?

Was driving yesterday on the freeway in AP in heavy traffic with 3 kids in the car, and the car stops suddenly and successfully, but then a terrible sound emanates from the left front wheel. Kids crying so I pull off the freeway thinking something is caught on the wheel/tire to find the back of...

teslamotorsclub.com

Another front suspension control arm failure

Reversing out of a parking space we heard a very loud sound followed by a grinding/scraping noise from the front right. At first we thought we'd run over something, but there was nothing under or anywhere near the car. Moving the car forwards, the car felt like it first jacked up a bit on the...

teslamotorsclub.com

This is besides the $700+ door handles on S and besides the eMMCs wearing out on the S's that some folks are doing repairs/pre-emptive replacements on https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/preventive-emmc-replacement-on-mcu1.152489/, otherwise Tesla wants a bundle: https://insideevs.com/news/376037/tesla-mcu-emmc-memory-issue/.

I started https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/automotive-reliability-and-durability-testing.56176/ long ago and the thread seems to be crickets. Given Tesla pushed out (and was very late with) the X, I doubt you could pick an X off the assembly line and have it pass the door cycle tests that I alluded to. https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2016/long-term-road-test/wrap-up.html had a disastrous repair record yet we're still seeing cases of door problems today: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/lasted-6-days.172232/.

 

[redpoint5]

There's a reason manufacturers don't do gull wing doors, and it isn't because they aren't genius enough to think of them.

I'll have to look into common problems if I get closer to purchasing an S. My first step is always to join a forum... I've been on this one a couple years and still don't have a Bolt.

Agree with the wisdom to wait and see what the near future offers, especially since all but 2 manufacturers still have the full $7,500 federal tax credit available. Always intended (and still do) to go full EV with my next purchase, but I wonder what the RAV4 Prime pencils out to after credits?

 

[NoMoPetrol]

@cwerdna

Gee, I guess that I and all the people I know who own Teslas are just statistical outliers. I can't speak for the X from either personal experience or that of my friends but the S and 3 models in my small group of acquaintances have been superb in performance, reliability and service/educational support.

The "Elon as Snake Oil Salesman" shtick is FUD. Check recent polls run by relatively non-EV publications. The customer satisfaction among Tesla owners is off the charts on the high end and is somewhat baffling to the afore mentioned publications. They are starting to realize that their unwitting (or otherwise) repetition of anti-Tesla FUD is unfounded.

 

[cwerdna]

Gee, I guess that I and all the people I know who own Teslas are just statistical outliers. I can't speak for the X from either personal experience or that of my friends but the S and 3 models in my small group of acquaintances have been superb in performance, reliability and service/educational support.

The "Elon as Snake Oil Salesman" shtick is FUD. Check recent polls run by relatively non-EV publications. The customer satisfaction among Tesla owners is off the charts on the high end and is somewhat baffling to the afore mentioned publications. They are starting to realize that their unwitting (or otherwise) repetition of anti-Tesla FUD is unfounded.

I can't speak to all the Tesla drivers at my work (we have several hundred in our registry at work) but they are most definitely not troublefree. An anecdote from someone at my work amused me. The child of someone in that person's school carpool group would ask which color of car they'd be riding today. Turns out, the reason was their parents' X was in the shop so much, they kept getting different colored loaners.

One Model 3 driver in my group posted about how when he had to take in his 3 for warranty work, every single vehicle there was an X and how he witnessed the "cult of Elon" himself. See my post at https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=564118#p564118.

Yes, owner satisfaction in Consumer Reports on Teslas is very high. That doesn't == good reliability.

Tesla in reliability rankings still doesn't do so hot:

Tesla slips several spots in Consumer Reports reliability ranking

Consumer Reports, which ranks the reliability of vehicles based on owner reviews, says the dependability of Tesla models has slipped in the last year as the automaker upgraded the hardware and software on its Model S vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

Consumer Reports puts Tesla back on recommended list as reliability improves

Tesla jumped four spots in the latest Consumer Reports Reliability Survey, based on reviews from owners of more than 400,000 vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

Please see average problem rate chart at https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/car-reliability-histories/ which covers a 1 year time window for each model year except the latest, which is less than a year. You or I could have 9 out of 10 folks who report no problems or "good" reliability yet that vehicle could be below average in reliability for that model year.

As for "Elon as Snake Oil Salesman", well he's still way off on his self-driving predictions and has missed his own "deadlines" over and over. Example were the dates cited in https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-car-drive-itself-across-the-country-2019-3. Well, it still hasn't happened.

Remember the misleading marketing video from 2016 at https://dailykanban.com/2017/02/ca-...ght-misleading-tesla-autonomous-drive-video/? Video is at https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware-neighborhood-long.

Well, take a look yourself as Tesla's disengagement reports at https://web.archive.org/web/2019032...etail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2016.

He talks about robotaxis and timelines that seem impossible given Tesla's lack of progress. Notice that Tesla is absent from https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2019/02/13/update-disengagement-reports-2018-final-results/? It's beacuse they did 0 autonomous miles on CA public roads in 2018. See https://web.archive.org/web/20190324183217/https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2018.

For kicks check out 2017 at https://web.archive.org/web/2019032...etail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2017. Remember, Tesla is based in California and there's a vast body of software engineering talent here in Silicon Valley.

There are also some strange people w/either weird standards or they're lying or forgetful.

That roblab guy I pointed at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/2017-model-3-reliability.127618/page-2#post-3137992 had kept claiming he hasn't needed to take in his Teslas in for service, yet he was earlier on taking it in for service ONCE A MONTH!

Even after I called him out on the above in 2018, he did it again in 2019, which I called him out on once more: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...1-5yr-repair-times.150786/page-3#post-3628765.

The guy at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/how-reliable-is-your-model-s.117032/page-2#post-2788639 said his car was "100% reliable" and " It terms or reliability the Model S is as good as it gets IMHO." yet he was on his 8th drive unit! Seriously? If you get the motor of an EV replaced even 5 times, that's not 100% reliable!