[TimBolt]

January was definitely not a banner month for domestic EV sales:

https://insideevs.com/january-2019-u-s-plug-in-ev-sales-report-card/

Tesla has already announced that most Model 3s will be heading overseas, now that those markets have officially opened up, and the insideevs.com estimate for domestic M3 sales is only 6,000 units.

The trend of slow Bolt sales continues, with under 1,000 in January.

With the Model 3 sidelined domestically, at least temporarily, it looks like 2019 is off to a very, very slow start.

 

[Vertiformed]

January was definitely not a banner month for domestic EV sales:

https://insideevs.com/january-2019-u-s-plug-in-ev-sales-report-card/

Tesla has already announced that most Model 3s will be heading overseas, now that those markets have officially opened up, and the insideevs.com estimate for domestic M3 sales is only 6,000 units.

The trend of slow Bolt sales continues, with under 1,000 in January.

With the Model 3 sidelined domestically, at least temporarily, it looks like 2019 is off to a very, very slow start.

You're right, it's not great news — we'd all feel some positivity if GM were selling vastly more Bolts, but there are actually some positive ways to view this data…

First, the number of EVs sold in January (more than 16,899) is a 40% rise over last January (12,009). That's actually pretty amazing year-over-year growth.

Next, the Bolt was the number three selling EV in the USA in January, only beaten by the Model 3 and Model X. This is a rise of two places over December (where it was beaten by the Leaf and the Model S as well). Leaf sales fell by 57% in January over their December numbers, whereas Bolt sales dropped a mere 45% over December's number. This time last year, Bolt sales dropped 64% between December and January.

Of course we all know the reason GM's Bolt sales are sagging, it's GM's failure to make Bolt able to carry a full-sized refrigerator, which posts on this forum will tell you, represents the daily needs of a growing fraction of EV drivers.

 

[cwerdna]

Part of the reason I suspect is just low gas prices (in many parts of the country, see https://gasprices.aaa.com/).

Below $3/gal gas is rare (I've seen it maybe twice in the past month) in the areas I go to (gas prices are high in the SF Bay Area vs. much of the rest of the US) but on other forums I hear of gas below $2/gal. It unfortunately means that Americans are just buying more trucks and SUVs as passenger car sales languish.

Of course we all know the reason GM's Bolt sales are sagging, it's GM's failure to make Bolt able to carry a full-sized refrigerator, which posts on this forum will tell you, represents the daily needs of a growing fraction of EV drivers.

Hahhaa. I suspect part of the problem is the lack of awareness of heavy discounting that's been going on. MSRPs esp. for Premier look too high vs. the competition. And, perhaps in some regions, there just isn't the type of discounting like in CA.

I suddenly became interested in Bolt (so that I could sell my Leaf and my "range extender" Prius) only because someone on a FB group made me aware of the discounting. They posted a screenshot of teaser prices at Martin Chevrolet. I say teaser because their prices were dependent on a $1500 discount for current GM lessees (I'm not). Anyway, I did a lot more digging at many dealer web pages in/around my area and even some in So Cal, submitted quote requests via Edmunds and via Consumer Reports (that uses TrueCar).

It was the discounting combined w/the GM tax credit situation (tax credit on qualifying GM vehicles goes to 1/2 on April 1, 2019) that got me interested. Otherwise, I might've waited for Leaf e+ (62 kWh version) to ship. No US prices announced yet but I do know European and Japanese prices. Will supposedly ship in Spring 2019, which probably means it'll be available April 1st or later.

And, in some places in the US, the Bolt is simply n/a. One guy in another forum I'm on in late 2017 posted (this is only part of it):
"Speaking of the Chevy Bolt I was just at my local Chevy dealer that I have been going to for 32 years and I asked the owner if he was getting any Bolts. The answer is no as I was the first customer who inquired about one..."

I asked him for an update in Sept 2018 and there's still no change. No Bolts there. The guy's in Frackville, PA and was about to get another job in the coal industry (he was in it before).

 

[Dimitrij]

I think we will see the EV sales in the US stagnate on the 2018 level, because many potential buyers (outside of the devoted, but limited in numbers EV-Or-Nothing cohort) are savvy/patient enough to wait for tweaks in the battery tech, improvements in the DCFC notwork, and for diversification of the available models - which are all expected to happen within the next year or so.

This applies, BTW, to Tesla as well, to a degree. Hey, if I wait a year to buy a TM3 $15K cheaper, I make $15K by simply sitting on my behind!

 

[surgeonFWW]

There are still many Federal and State incentives realized as tax credits. As long as this is true, people feel the push to beat the 12/31 tax deadline (same as why church & other charitable donations are up in December and take a REAL dive in January)! I agree with Vertiformed that there is much about which to cheer. Lastly, with the number of EV models available in 2019 greatly over those in 2018 (nearly 33%), and that many of these are lower cost EVs, AND that the general price of EVs (even the Chevy Bolt EV may see a price drop) will probably fall in 2019, I predict a significant increase in annual sales in the USA.

 

[ol3Faz]

I watch a lot of sports; almost exclusively. DVR is my friend! No commercials for me. But one of the reasons for poor sales, I suspect, is that the Bolt isn't marketed . . . at all from what I can tell. It seems that at every commercial break, there's a car commercial.

Even Chevy's "Oh wait, I got you" commercials with the fire-breathing dragon that suddenly appears (with trumpets blaring) to demonstrate the Chevy's anti-flame retardant properties - don't include a Bolt in their line-up. I suspect it's because their margin is so small. I also suspect the only reason they sell any EVs at all is to appease the 'green' focused law-makers in Congress. "Hey, don't stop giving us all that tax-payer money - look, we sell EVs!" These are just assumptions on my part.

I will say that when I began my research for 'the highest mpg' car I could find in early Dec18, the car companies were very heavy into all the Xmas spots. Lexus is the one I remember most. And my initial research didn't include any EVs. I was aware of hybrids, but had never even considered an EV; wasn't on my radar scope.

I found myself at a .gov website that listed the highest milage vehicles and near the top of the list was the Bolt. I'd never even heard of it. I thought it was a typo; meaning Volt. Then, it popped up again on another 'high gas mileage' query. I thought I should check out Chevy.com at that point and sure enough, there was such a thing as a Bolt.

That led me here to this forum. And last week, I became a Bolt owner; below TrueCar avg price as well. Now, I'm a car guy and always have been. I'm an American muscle-car loving guy that loves tobacco, beer, and women that don't mind being women. MECUM Auction shows are my favorite waste of time after sports-watching. And, I'm a Bolt owner.

My point: I acted. And I did so inside of 30 days when I became aware that Bolts even existed. I'm in the peak earning years of my life. And neither Chevy nor Nissan, nor Toyota, nor Hyundai have ever marketed to me. Caveat - if they did, I wasn't aware of it. Which means their advertising campaigns were/are not effective.

BLATB: ("Bottom Line At The Bottom" as opposed to 'Up Front", for those of you in Rio Linda) This is why EVs and Bolts specifically, have not taken off the way that they will eventually.

My one last thought here, that could be relevant, is the subject of rare-earth metals. Guess who owns that market? And guess what's inside our Bolts! Hello!

Wow! this is way longer than I intended. Apologies.

 

[KeithMoon]

This quarter's sales should be quite good overall because of the expiring tax credit (I bought my Bolt December 27th 2018 and I just did my taxes and saw the full $7500 credit) but 2nd quarter sales will be miserable without significant discounting by GM.

 

[Joule]

January was definitely not a banner month for domestic EV sales:

https://insideevs.com/january-2019-u-s-plug-in-ev-sales-report-card/

Tesla has already announced that most Model 3s will be heading overseas, now that those markets have officially opened up, and the insideevs.com estimate for domestic M3 sales is only 6,000 units.

The trend of slow Bolt sales continues, with under 1,000 in January.

With the Model 3 sidelined domestically, at least temporarily, it looks like 2019 is off to a very, very slow start.

I think we will see the EV sales in the US stagnate on the 2018 level, because many potential buyers (outside of the devoted, but limited in numbers EV-Or-Nothing cohort) are savvy/patient enough to wait for tweaks in the battery tech, improvements in the DCFC notwork, and for diversification of the available models - which are all expected to happen within the next year or so.

This applies, BTW, to Tesla as well, to a degree. Hey, if I wait a year to buy a TM3 $15K cheaper, I make $15K by simply sitting on my behind!

As Vertiformed already mentioned, very decent growth especially when considering Model 3 shipments overseas. But I think the trend for 2019 will depend more on production capacity then it will on the purchase habits of potential buyers. If Tesla is able to offer leasing as well as base model configurations in 2019, the bottleneck is more likely going to be production capacity then it will be potential customers.

 

[Dimitrij]

I watch a lot of sports; almost exclusively. DVR is my friend! No commercials for me. But one of the reasons for poor sales, I suspect, is that the Bolt isn't marketed . . . at all from what I can tell. It seems that at every commercial break, there's a car commercial.

Even Chevy's "Oh wait, I got you" commercials with the fire-breathing dragon that suddenly appears (with trumpets blaring) to demonstrate the Chevy's anti-flame retardant properties - don't include a Bolt in their line-up. I suspect it's because their margin is so small. I also suspect the only reason they sell any EVs at all is to appease the 'green' focused law-makers in Congress. "Hey, don't stop giving us all that tax-payer money - look, we sell EVs!" These are just assumptions on my part.

I will say that when I began my research for 'the highest mpg' car I could find in early Dec18, the car companies were very heavy into all the Xmas spots. Lexus is the one I remember most. And my initial research didn't include any EVs. I was aware of hybrids, but had never even considered an EV; wasn't on my radar scope.

I found myself at a .gov website that listed the highest milage vehicles and near the top of the list was the Bolt. I'd never even heard of it. I thought it was a typo; meaning Volt. Then, it popped up again on another 'high gas mileage' query. I thought I should check out Chevy.com at that point and sure enough, there was such a thing as a Bolt.

That led me here to this forum. And last week, I became a Bolt owner; below TrueCar avg price as well. Now, I'm a car guy and always have been. I'm an American muscle-car loving guy that loves tobacco, beer, and women that don't mind being women. MECUM Auction shows are my favorite waste of time after sports-watching. And, I'm a Bolt owner.

My point: I acted. And I did so inside of 30 days when I became aware that Bolts even existed. I'm in the peak earning years of my life. And neither Chevy nor Nissan, nor Toyota, nor Hyundai have ever marketed to me. Caveat - if they did, I wasn't aware of it. Which means their advertising campaigns were/are not effective.

BLATB: ("Bottom Line At The Bottom" as opposed to 'Up Front", for those of you in Rio Linda) This is why EVs and Bolts specifically, have not taken off the way that they will eventually.

My one last thought here, that could be relevant, is the subject of rare-earth metals. Guess who owns that market? And guess what's inside our Bolts! Hello!

Wow! this is way longer than I intended. Apologies.

Or something like this: the market at large will switch from ICE vehicles to EV's when the latter, on balance, begin to offer more palpable advantages, including a predictable and low TCO.

Does anyone know what a 2019 Bolt will be worth in 3 years, and/or past the battery warranty, when it might end up competing with newer crop of EV's with lower price, btter tech and 20-30-50% more capable battery?

 

[ol3Faz]

This quarter's sales should be quite good overall because of the expiring tax credit (I bought my Bolt December 27th 2018 and I just did my taxes and saw the full $7500 credit) but 2nd quarter sales will be miserable without significant discounting by GM.

My buying experience revolved heavily around this Federal tax rebate expiring. I was aware of it but the salesman pushed it as a feature to buy now; at least before 01Apr.

What he failed to mention, and you also, is that to get the full $7500 - you have to owe at least that much in taxes. Ex: If your tax bill is $5000 ( amount you owe after all deductions ) and you then apply the credit - the feds don't send you a check for the other $2500.

In fact, if your final tax figures say that there is an "Amount Owed to You" -- you won't see ANY of that $7500.

My new W-4 is being submitted tomorrow. FYI!

 

[Joule]

I watch a lot of sports; almost exclusively. DVR is my friend! No commercials for me. But one of the reasons for poor sales, I suspect, is that the Bolt isn't marketed . . . at all from what I can tell. It seems that at every commercial break, there's a car commercial.

Even Chevy's "Oh wait, I got you" commercials with the fire-breathing dragon that suddenly appears (with trumpets blaring) to demonstrate the Chevy's anti-flame retardant properties - don't include a Bolt in their line-up. I suspect it's because their margin is so small. I also suspect the only reason they sell any EVs at all is to appease the 'green' focused law-makers in Congress. "Hey, don't stop giving us all that tax-payer money - look, we sell EVs!" These are just assumptions on my part.

I will say that when I began my research for 'the highest mpg' car I could find in early Dec18, the car companies were very heavy into all the Xmas spots. Lexus is the one I remember most. And my initial research didn't include any EVs. I was aware of hybrids, but had never even considered an EV; wasn't on my radar scope.

I found myself at a .gov website that listed the highest milage vehicles and near the top of the list was the Bolt. I'd never even heard of it. I thought it was a typo; meaning Volt. Then, it popped up again on another 'high gas mileage' query. I thought I should check out Chevy.com at that point and sure enough, there was such a thing as a Bolt.

That led me here to this forum. And last week, I became a Bolt owner; below TrueCar avg price as well. Now, I'm a car guy and always have been. I'm an American muscle-car loving guy that loves tobacco, beer, and women that don't mind being women. MECUM Auction shows are my favorite waste of time after sports-watching. And, I'm a Bolt owner.

My point: I acted. And I did so inside of 30 days when I became aware that Bolts even existed. I'm in the peak earning years of my life. And neither Chevy nor Nissan, nor Toyota, nor Hyundai have ever marketed to me. Caveat - if they did, I wasn't aware of it. Which means their advertising campaigns were/are not effective.

BLATB: ("Bottom Line At The Bottom" as opposed to 'Up Front", for those of you in Rio Linda) This is why EVs and Bolts specifically, have not taken off the way that they will eventually.

My one last thought here, that could be relevant, is the subject of rare-earth metals. Guess who owns that market? And guess what's inside our Bolts! Hello!

Wow! this is way longer than I intended. Apologies.

I like the real life vibe in your post and couldn't agree more, GM it seems does very little to encourage sales of the Bolt. I cannot comment on GM's sales strategy, but what ever it is, it doesn't seem to include provisions for attracting as many new Bolt customers as part of the plan. I think the most telling aspect to this conversation is that almost anyone that drives the Chevy Bolt loves it! As another muscle car guy, imagine the buzz GM would create by making the eCOPO available. Or even better, an eVette.

 

[KeithMoon]

This quarter's sales should be quite good overall because of the expiring tax credit (I bought my Bolt December 27th 2018 and I just did my taxes and saw the full $7500 credit) but 2nd quarter sales will be miserable without significant discounting by GM.

My buying experience revolved heavily around this Federal tax rebate expiring. I was aware of it but the salesman pushed it as a feature to buy now; at least before 01Apr.

What he failed to mention, and you also, is that to get the full $7500 - you have to owe at least that much in taxes. Ex: If your tax bill is $5000 ( amount you owe after all deductions ) and you then apply the credit - the feds don't send you a check for the other $2500.

In fact, if your final tax figures say that there is an "Amount Owed to You" -- you won't see ANY of that $7500.

My new W-4 is being submitted tomorrow. FYI!/forum/images/ChevyBolt/smilies/tango_face_surprise.png

That's right, but there isn't much danger of anyone who can afford a Bolt not having a net liability of at least $7500 on their federal taxes (unless they are engaged in tax evasion).

 

[NewsCoulomb]

First, the number of EVs sold in January (more than 16,899) is a 40% rise over last January (12,009). That's actually pretty amazing year-over-year growth.

This can't be emphasized enough. January is traditionally a slow month for EV sales, and we are coming off of back-to-back-to-back record EV sales months, which makes the drop off look worse than it actually is.

There's also a bit of Osborne Effect going on, where the EV media has been blasting out news of the upcoming Kona Electric, LEAF Plus, Niro EV, and Soul EV. If their respective automakers actually push those vehicles in the United States, we will likely see continued year-over-year EV sales growth, even with a majority of the Model 3s being shipped to Europe.

With proper distribution and promotion, I believe that those four EVs plus the Bolt EV could each sustain 4,000+ sales per month domestically. It will be a tougher road for the Bolt EV with the Federal Tax Credit stepping down to $3,750, but I still think it's achievable. However, what's achievable and what actually is done are two different things.

I actually think the April Tax Credit step down presents a huge opportunity for GM, if they approach it properly. We already know that the EV press tends to attack GM whenever possible, so they are going to be screaming at the top of their lungs about how much cheaper the other EV options are because of the Tax Credit. However, GM has already been marking down the MSRP of the Bolt EV about $3,000 to $4,000 in some markets, so they could parry that EV-media criticism by marketing a $3,750 discount on all Bolt EVs (or those in select markets) to compensate for the Tax Credit.

 

[NewsCoulomb]

That's right, but there isn't much danger of anyone who can afford a Bolt not having a net liability of at least $7500 on their federal taxes (unless they are engaged in tax evasion).

That's not actually true. An individual would typically need to make over $60,000 to have a full $7,500 in liability. When I bought my first Volt, I was a little over $1,000 short of the full $7,500 credit.

 

[Dimitrij]

As Vertiformed already mentioned, very decent growth especially when considering Model 3 shipments overseas. But I think the trend for 2019 will depend more on production capacity then it will on the purchase habits of potential buyers. If Tesla is able to offer leasing as well as base model configurations in 2019, the bottleneck is more likely going to be production capacity then it will be potential customers.

I'll just be a stiff-necked, kill-joy pedant and urge everyone to return to the subject of the conversation, which is the EV sales figures in the US - which is what the insideevs article and my comment was specifically about.

Now, the January figures in the US suggest: about 925 (est.) Bolts were sold, which is lower than any month of Bolt sales.

The dealership that I got kEVin from advertises at its 3 North Virginia locations 40 (forty) 2019 Bolts, at $6K below the MSRP on average. One Nissan dealership in the area I checked advertises 11 Leafs, up to $6K+ below the MSRP.

Also, I read somewhere the waiting time for the existing configurations of TM3 is down to a couple of weeks from months and years.

What does it tell us? I suspect that the mass buyers have decided to sit out the current crop of EV's, waiting for the $35K TM3, the e-Plus, the hypothetical improved 2020 Bolt, the Kona/Niro/whatever … and for the DCFC nutwork to develop a little more.

 

[ol3Faz]

Don't forget paying an Ex almost $50K a year. That would do it too! Apologies to Dimitrij.

 

[ol3Faz]

Also, I read somewhere the waiting time for the existing configurations of TM3 is down to a couple of weeks from months and years.

Having just been through this, the TM3 wait time is currently about 8 weeks; out of La Jolla dealership.

 

[KeithMoon]

That's right, but there isn't much danger of anyone who can afford a Bolt not having a net liability of at least $7500 on their federal taxes (unless they are engaged in tax evasion).

That's not actually true. An individual would typically need to make over $60,000 to have a full $7,500 in liability. When I bought my first Volt, I was a little over $1,000 short of the full $7,500 credit.

I said anyone who can afford a Bolt. Yes, if one can't afford a Bolt but elects to buy one anyway, they will be penalized by not receiving the full credit. No one who makes $60k a year should be buying a $38,000 car. No one should spend more than half their annual income on vehicle (3x annual income on real estate is fine as it is an investment, but cars are nothing but an expense - albeit a necessary expense for most people in the US).

 

[Joule]

I'll just be a stiff-necked, kill-joy pedant and urge everyone to return to the subject of the conversation, which is the EV sales figures in the US - which is what the insideevs article and my comment was specifically about.

Now, the January figures in the US suggest: about 925 (est.) Bolts were sold, which is lower than any month of Bolt sales.

The dealership that I got kEVin from advertises at its 3 North Virginia locations 40 (forty) 2019 Bolts, at $6K below the MSRP on average. One Nissan dealership in the area I checked advertises 11 Leafs, up to $6K+ below the MSRP.

Also, I read somewhere the waiting time for the existing configurations of TM3 is down to a couple of weeks from months and years.

What does it tell us? I suspect that the mass buyers have decided to sit out the current crop of EV's, waiting for the $35K TM3, the e-Plus, the hypothetical improved 2020 Bolt, the Kona/Niro/whatever … and for the DCFC nutwork to develop a little more.

Although it may not seem like it, I actually agree with you. You are commenting on primarily Bolt sales with a nod to Leaf's as well, while I was pointing more specifically to Model 3's. If we look at the past months sales in regards to what is actually a significant gain over the same month in 2018, we are seeing what I believe is also related to production capacity. In January 2018, both Model 3 and Leaf sales were limited by production. Naturally as we progress through the year, the ability to repeat the same percent gain in sales we saw in the past month will be unobtainable unless production increases significantly for the Model 3. I reference the Model 3 because I don't see Bolt sales making any significant upward trends until there is a significant change in available infrastructure. The Leaf might see a small jump with the recent increase in range, but again, charging infrastructure is limited and getting worse for the Leaf as its adopted charging standard appears set to only get weaker support. The other makes coming online this year will help, but not to where it will amount to an extra 20k units per month. The biggest opportunity for NA sales is if Model 3 production can be significantly increase above where it is now, and Tesla is able to offer leasing and base model configurations,

 

[TimBolt]

My buying experience revolved heavily around this Federal tax rebate expiring. I was aware of it but the salesman pushed it as a feature to buy now; at least before 01Apr.

What he failed to mention, and you also, is that to get the full $7500 - you have to owe at least that much in taxes. Ex: If your tax bill is $5000 ( amount you owe after all deductions ) and you then apply the credit - the feds don't send you a check for the other $2500.

In fact, if your final tax figures say that there is an "Amount Owed to You" -- you won't see ANY of that $7500.

My new W-4 is being submitted tomorrow. FYI!

Yes, if you don’t pay at least $7500 in federal income tax you won’t get the full tax credit, and there’s no carry-over provision for the amount you don’t get.

However, the “amount owed to you” line on the tax return has nothing to do with whether you’re eligible for all or part of the $7500 credit. That line will be greater than zero if you’ve had more federal tax withheld than needed to pay your tax obligation. If someone had $20k in taxes withheld, but only owes $15k, the “amount owed to you” would be $5k, but that person would be eligible for the full federal tax credit, since the tax obligation of $15k is greater than the $7500 credit.