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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)

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I concur with the OP. I think the Ford EV F-150 will hit the ball out of the park. I may be counter intuitive, but such pickups, when used out in the boonies, don't drive really long distances. They're "pack mules." And, if the rancher/farmer can plug their truck in at night, and be ready to go at sunup, what's not to like? Add almost no maintenance, and you've got a winner.


Rich
 

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I would expect an F-series EV to sell more than Tesla or Rivian because it's already the top selling vehicle in the US. My expectation for a Tesla truck is that those that want to commute in a truck will buy them, and those that want to work with a truck will get an F-series. I'm not sure where Rivian fits in, but they don't stand a chance of survival on their own, and will get absorbed by one of the big players.
 

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"When the F-150 EV does arrive, it will have to contend with Tesla, which is set to launch its own "cyberpunk" EV pickup pretty soon. CEO Elon Musk has also bragged about towing capacity, tweeting that Tesla's model will be able to tow 300,000 pounds."
It's clear Musk is selling his truck to people who won't be using it for actual work in most cases. It appears Tesla is going to sell the idea of "Well, I know there isn't an apocalypse right now, but if a meteor was ever to hit or a nuclear war breaks out... you can pack up and get away" to it's typical Tesla buyer who can afford that kind of dream or excess at a premium price.

The FordEV 150 seems more marketed to people and businesses that plan to actually use that truck on a consistent basis doing some kind of heavy work. When you couple that with the probable amount of time a Tesla truck will spend in a shop after brushing up next to a fence post or gate and waiting for parts vs the typical F150 owner who think dents add character or it's easily fixable at your local Ford dealer, Ford is taking the right approach not selling 'sexy' here.

Both will sell; Tesla-ites will buy a Tesla truck for the usual reasons they buy Model S/X's now.. meaning the same market share it has now with little change, while ICE buyers, small businesses and fleet sales will likely buy the F150s.. heavily tilting the scale away from Tesla. The worst thing Tesla can do at that point is try to compete with Ford because it will never be able to gain that already built-in market loyalty just like most EV companies can't pull away loyal Tesla customers now.
 

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this is really no surprise - Diesel Electric locomotives use that technology for a reason - it's well understood electric motors are great for high torque requirements - it was a snow job that car makers and oil producers some how got it in people's brains that electric motors are weak and slow...it took Tesla to remind people with actual products that electric motors are actually amazing power-tools far outstripping what is possible with ICE motors.

for anything that matters (performance and reliability and power/torque) you use EV motors for the actual "motion" and ICE motors to provide electricity for the EV motor…it's super efficient and leverage the advantages of both types of system (ICE Motors running on an energy dense and highly portable and available fuel) and EV motors that do not stall and have very very high power/torque…
 

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To be fair, the whole "it can tow XXXXXXX pounds" has tended to be more of a marketing thing with cars/trucks.
If you start slow enough and on a flat surface, a lot of vehicles can tow a lot of weight.
Doesn't mean they should.
It's more about "can you stop it" when you need to. ;-)

I mean, I don't expect airports to start buying Mini-E's just because BMW showed one towing a plane. ;-)

That said, I do think Ford is in a great situation, and if handled right, could have a huge hit with the electric F150.
Also, I think Tesla and Rivian will be able to sell theirs.
I don't think the Ford will overlap as much market wise with those two.
That said, I do think more potential Rivian and Tesla customers might be the same people.
It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

And I do think some other company snapping up Rivian is a possibility...
 

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We should be watching the symbiosis between Ford and Rivian with great interest. But, apparently a Nissan-Dongfeng symbiosis has already yielded an affordable mid-range truck, albeit in China only.
 

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What's even bigger news in my view is the hybrid F-series announced. It's about time. Hybrid tech should have started with the truck... 20 years ago. Stupid that it started with the smallest, most efficient vehicles; Insight and Prius. The Insight in the right hands gets nearly the same fuel economy with the hybrid system completely disabled. That would never happen in a truck.

They also announced a small SUV EV, which could be huge. The next couple years will be interesting.

this is really no surprise - Diesel Electric locomotives use that technology for a reason - it's well understood electric motors are great for high torque requirements - it was a snow job that car makers and oil producers some how got it in people's brains that electric motors are weak and slow...it took Tesla to remind people with actual products that electric motors are actually amazing power-tools far outstripping what is possible with ICE motors.

for anything that matters (performance and reliability and power/torque) you use EV motors for the actual "motion" and ICE motors to provide electricity for the EV motor…it's super efficient and leverage the advantages of both types of system (ICE Motors running on an energy dense and highly portable and available fuel) and EV motors that do not stall and have very very high power/torque…
I didn't see series hybrid mentioned; did I miss it?

Series isn't necessarily more efficient than an ICE directly driving a vehicle. The conversion is chemical > mechanical > electrical > mechanical... that's a lot of energy conversion steps. With an ICE, the conversion is chemical > mechanical. The reason series can be more efficient is that an ICE can have half or less efficiency when operating outside of the most efficient operating conditions. Gearing and loading an ICE to stay in that optimal range is difficult, which is why series drivetrains make sense in certain applications.
 

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What's even bigger news in my view is the hybrid F-series announced. It's about time. Hybrid tech should have started with the truck... 20 years ago. Stupid that it started with the smallest, most efficient vehicles; Insight and Prius. The Insight in the right hands gets nearly the same fuel economy with the hybrid system completely disabled. That would never happen in a truck.

They also announced a small SUV EV, which could be huge. The next couple years will be interesting.



I didn't see series hybrid mentioned; did I miss it?

Series isn't necessarily more efficient than an ICE directly driving a vehicle. The conversion is chemical > mechanical > electrical > mechanical... that's a lot of energy conversion steps. With an ICE, the conversion is chemical > mechanical. The reason series can be more efficient is that an ICE can have half or less efficiency when operating outside of the most efficient operating conditions. Gearing and loading an ICE to stay in that optimal range is difficult, which is why series drivetrains make sense in certain applications.
@redpoint - no you didn't miss anything and I was unclear with my posting - I was refering to the electrical portion of locomotives which do all the "heavy" lifting - i.e. the electric motors are known to have this sort of capacity and capability - the Diesel in the equation is just an electric source - but in the case of the Ford pickup it's a chemical battery not a Diesel motor providing electricity…

I was referring to the common knowledge at least since the 1940's/1950's that electric motors can do amazing things! And the freight industry has been tapping the capability/efficiency/reliability of electric motors for decades…
 

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Yep, electric motors have been better than ICE in most applications since before ICE was invented, with the "fuel tank" being the achilles heel.

... and I forgot thermal as a state of energy in the conversion process above. Should be chemical > thermal > mechanical. Losses at each step.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
What's even bigger news in my view is the hybrid F-series announced. It's about time. Hybrid tech should have started with the truck... 20 years ago.
You missed that Ford was the second manufacturer to offer a hybrid vehicle: the Hybrid Escape in 2005. That was the first hybrid SUV/CUV. Then in 2009 it presented the Hybrid Fusion, a mid-sized sedan which was one of the reason it won the Motor Trend "Car Of The Year" Award in 2010. Ford later produced the hybrid C-Max, replacing the Escape for a short time. Now Ford will produce several new hybrids (including three Lincoln models) for 2020, the return of the Hybrid Escape, and the model most expected: the Hybrid Explorer, its second best selling vehicle after the F-150.

So if Ford will sell the F-150 Hybrid now, that may be "late" for you, but any hybrid technology takes time to design and test. If you had the money, you could had done your own hybrid truck, too, years ago.
 

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You missed that Ford was the second manufacturer to offer a hybrid vehicle: the Hybrid Escape in 2005. That was the first hybrid SUV/CUV. Then in 2009 it presented the Hybrid Fusion, a mid-sized sedan which was one of the reason it won the Motor Trend "Car Of The Year" Award in 2010. Ford later produced the hybrid C-Max, replacing the Escape for a short time. Now Ford will produce several new hybrids (including three Lincoln models) for 2020, the return of the Hybrid Escape, and the model most expected: the Hybrid Explorer, its second best selling vehicle after the F-150.

So if Ford will sell the F-150 Hybrid now, that may be "late" for you, but any hybrid technology takes time to design and test. If you had the money, you could had done your own hybrid truck, too, years ago.

...or just bought a Ranger EV. They were quite nice. I owned one for a couple of years...over fifteen years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Ranger_EV
 

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You missed that Ford was the second manufacturer to offer a hybrid vehicle: the Hybrid Escape in 2005. That was the first hybrid SUV/CUV. Then in 2009 it presented the Hybrid Fusion, a mid-sized sedan which was one of the reason it won the Motor Trend "Car Of The Year" Award in 2010. Ford later produced the hybrid C-Max, replacing the Escape for a short time. Now Ford will produce several new hybrids (including three Lincoln models) for 2020, the return of the Hybrid Escape, and the model most expected: the Hybrid Explorer, its second best selling vehicle after the F-150.

So if Ford will sell the F-150 Hybrid now, that may be "late" for you, but any hybrid technology takes time to design and test. If you had the money, you could had done your own hybrid truck, too, years ago.
I didn't miss that; I've been following hybrids since they were concepts in Popular Science. Ford may have been the 3rd manufacturer with a hybrid, as Honda was first with the Insight, then Toyota with the Prius. The point is, the larger the vehicle, the more savings can be had with hybridization. The Fusion hybrid is among my favorite vehicles made, and is my go-to when renting. Heck, it even looks good; like an Aston Martin. I helped a friend purchase a C-Max, which is also a most excellent vehicle.

The sad thing is that Ford discontinued all of their cars with exception of the Mustang. That means no more Fusion or C-Max.

It makes tons of sense to offer a hybrid Explorer. Looking forward to that one. Maybe I'll own a used one 5 years from now.

It's beyond me why manufacturers started with the most efficient vehicles to develop a hybrid powertrain when the added expense of that technology can be recouped much quicker on the larger vehicles. My guess is it had a lot to do with EPA and CAFE regulations, which were stricter for smaller vehicles and relaxed for large ones that were classified as "trucks".
 

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The rough calculations suggest you can do the same demonstration with two Bolt EVs. It would lack drama, but it does show how electric motors can develop huge locked rotor torque.


The secret is looking at the tow strap in the Ford video. It's a 3-4" strap with a maximum load of about 30,000 pounds. There is no safety cable or other restraint should the strap break. The film crew walks along the towing path with no concern. That means the pulling load is much less than 30,000 pounds. (For those who have snapped a winch cable under load, you will understand why the Ford video is well within the safe limit.)


How much less? The steel-on-steel rolling resistance for rail wheels is on the order of 0.001-0.002. A million pound static gravitational load means...2,000 pounds gets the wheels moving. (Really. Small agricultural shippers move rail cars on their sidings by hand with rail car jacks. The person in the picture does not weigh 4,000 pounds, he just leans down to jockey the car.)







So why not some Bolts to show the F150 how it's done?


The Bolt EV weighs 3,580 pounds and a good estimate of the static friction of the tires is 0.7. That means the tires will break away on dry pavement at about 2,500 pounds of pulling force. The only problem is the motor. 266 foot-pounds of torque through a 7.05 gear reduction givess 1875 foot-pounds at the axle. The tires are about 1 foot in radius so we have 1875 pounds of force.


The above has a few weak points in failing to consider the front-rear loading of the vehicle; the front tires will proabaly break free at ˜900 pounds due to weight distribution. But two Bolts may do it!
 

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I sure hope Ford is serious this time around. We need leaders in the EV revolution beyond one guy in Silicon Valley.
while I agree with this goal and sentiment - 100% - having met some of the players from the "other guys" I really really feel they just don't get it! It's going to require some churn among the established players to bring in some "new blood" that understands where this stuff needs to go (former BMW CEO is looking for job these days partly due to his opinion about EV's)…they simply do not get it and they are toooooo beholden to their existing business models to really embrace the radical change required - Blockbuster meet Netflix…it really comes down to that!

I'm more optimistic of new disruptors taking on Tesla rather than the existing guys really "getting it". You just can't forgo existing profits/models while you ramp up your "new" business - all sorts of reasons it better for a separate business entity to ramp up while the "existing" business slowly dies…and no one wants to manage a shrinking business "as a goal"...and the existing ICE business _MUST_ shrink for EV's to make progress…

again I agree with the goal - but to date I've watched Chevy squander their lead in affordable EV's and all the other guys keep bringing lack luster EV's to market in laughably small volumes…with no real commitment.

Tesla needs competition, but I'm doubtful they will get it from the established players.
 
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