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Discussion Starter #1
when will we see a 75 kWh Bolt? I'm thinking 2019 model year will receive a battery bump - doesn't have to be 75 but could be 65/68/72...

75 would be awesome - or 297.5 miles using the 238 number as a ratio calculator - I'm betting the next "bump" will let chevy claim 300 miles - can't wait!!

bump the charger to 48 amps (8 hour charge of 75 kWh battery)
DC Fast to 120,000 watts - 140 miles in 30 minutes

woot
 

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when will we see a 75 kWh Bolt? I'm thinking 2019 model year will receive a battery bump - doesn't have to be 75 but could be 65/68/72...

75 would be awesome - or 297.5 miles using the 238 number as a ratio calculator - I'm betting the next "bump" will let chevy claim 300 miles - can't wait!!

bump the charger to 48 amps (8 hour charge of 75 kWh battery)
DC Fast to 120,000 watts - 140 miles in 30 minutes

woot
I will be excited if they do that, just thinking at some point in the future when batteries are cheap enough I could replace the one in my Bolt and get a big bump in range.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
I will be excited if they do that, just thinking at some point in the future when batteries are cheap enough I could replace the one in my Bolt and get a big bump in range.
the thing with EV's is - we all know the batteries degrade - Tesla Roadster, Model S, and Leaf data show it's a reasonable single digit percentage - but over time our LiOn batteries will have less charge potential than they did when we drove them off the lot…let's say in 10-12 years you've lost 15% - your 238 mile Bolt is now a 200 mile Bolt - still useful but less…

given on going progress or even an actual breakthrough in battery tech to a new chemistry it’s very very possible that you could upgrade to a battery with more capacity and greater and longevity for about the same price an engine swap/transmission job - which is not an unheard of expense for a 10-12 year old car…

the thing is with EV’s - the rest of the car should still be pretty good - the other components don’t really wear as much as the stuff on an ICE car do

it’s the modularity of EV cars that love, they are so simple, and the parts so modular we can rethink the longevity of a car and even though batteries do degrade the cost of the degradation is about the same as or even cheaper than equivalent components on an ICE car
 

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the thing with EV's is - we all know the batteries degrade - Tesla Roadster, Model S, and Leaf data show it's a reasonable single digit percentage - but over time our LiOn batteries will have less charge potential than they did when we drove them off the lot…let's say in 10-12 years you've lost 15% - your 238 mile Bolt is now a 200 mile Bolt - still useful but less…

given on going progress or even an actual breakthrough in battery tech to a new chemistry it’s very very possible that you could upgrade to a battery with more capacity and greater and longevity for about the same price an engine swap/transmission job - which is not an unheard of expense for a 10-12 year old car…

the thing is with EV’s - the rest of the car should still be pretty good - the other components don’t really wear as much as the stuff on an ICE car do

it’s the modularity of EV cars that love, they are so simple, and the parts so modular we can rethink the longevity of a car and even though batteries do degrade the cost of the degradation is about the same as or even cheaper than equivalent components on an ICE car
Yeah a decent electric engine is rated for hundreds of thousands of hours of use, short of a defect the main components of the drive should last a really long time.

The parts that will need attention eventually would be brakes, suspension, linkages and the heating/cooling systems of the car. Most of those things while they will eventually need repair or replacement, should last quite a while. The suspension parts are the most likely to need attention first.
 

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Suspension typically would be the first things to go but probably not even the major components. More along the lines of ball joints and stabilizer links and what not I would assume? Then tires perhaps.
 

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Suspension typically would be the first things to go but probably not even the major components. More along the lines of ball joints and stabilizer links and what not I would assume? Then tires perhaps.
Suspension components before tires? You guys must have awfully good tires over there .... ;)
 

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Suspension components before tires? You guys must have awfully good tires over there .... ;)
Yes, Bolt tires are tireless. You may need to get retired before your Bolt does.

But seriously, the whole EV thing is so new, we really don't know what the economics of anything are going to be. I am sure wild billions are being sunk globally into R&D, and we'll be seeing a lot of record-breaking in the EV olympics in next 3 years. The Bolt already has a "nickel-enriched" battery with enhanced badassity, and in general Li-Ion doesn't have to be the last word in the battery technology.

The way Bolt's battery is mounted, is it intended to be easily removed and serviced/replaced/upgraded?
 

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Yes, Bolt tires are tireless. You may need to get retired before your Bolt does.

But seriously, the whole EV thing is so new, we really don't know what the economics of anything are going to be. I am sure wild billions are being sunk globally into R&D, and we'll be seeing a lot of record-breaking in the EV olympics in next 3 years. The Bolt already has a "nickel-enriched" battery with enhanced badassity, and in general Li-Ion doesn't have to be the last word in the battery technology.

The way Bolt's battery is mounted, is it intended to be easily removed and serviced/replaced/upgraded?
I would think it should be pretty straight forward with the right kind of lift. I mean it is just bolted in and has a few connections, coolant lines and electric lines.

 

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The way Bolt's battery is mounted, is it intended to be easily removed and serviced/replaced/upgraded?
Well it doesn't look the kind of thing you and the local shade-tree mechanic would do on a rainy Saturday :laugh:

They could literally make it a slip-out assemble... but why would they?
I'd imagine that after 10+ years of good service... Chevy would like to sell you a new car vs. a new battery pack for your antique EV.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
The way Bolt's battery is mounted, is it intended to be easily removed and serviced/replaced/upgraded?
worse case it's no worse than a clutch/transmission job in terms of complexity/labor - best case it's actually quite simple - Tesla designed the batteries to "drop out" and at one point hot swappable (remember their failed battery switch promise? that was never going to work). But changing the battery should be a 1/2 day type affair with the major cost being the actual battery not the labor…I mean Chevy warranties the battery so they must have some plan for replacement to "fix" failed batteries - there are reports from tesla forums of bad batteries and Tesla swaps them out in a day or so - the normal delay isn't the labor/complexity, but sourcing the replacement battery - Tesla always claims they will repair the original battery and return it to the owner and that the battery they install is a "loaner" - so far no one has had their original battery returned to them - and the loaners preset no issue…

battery upgrading is an untapped potential of EV's in my opinion - better capacity, better chemistry, improved temperature range - all possible with out changing any other aspect of the car - the only design point I can see would be matching the coolant/heating system's capacity with the "new" batteries needs and having the charging/software understand the new batteries capacity…but for some range of "standard" batteries should be upgradable.
 

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The way Bolt's battery is mounted, is it intended to be easily removed and serviced/replaced/upgraded?
It's "easy" in the sense that it doesn't require a lot of superfluous work to remove other things first - it's a very straightforward job. The biggest issue is that it drops out of the bottom of the car and it's very, very heavy - so you need the right kinds of lifts to deal with it.
 

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Until car companies start catching up to Chevy in battery size and price for that model, we won't see a 75 kWh battery for awhile. The Model 3 will probably come with one in the beginning, but the starting Model 3 will be close to $50,000. Even then, the Bolt won't be that far behind in range because the Tesla is more powerful and will go through kWh quicker. The $35,000 Model 3 will have better acceleration than the Bolt, but will be behind in most categories including range. The big x-factor will be the Leaf. I think they initial said that it would beat the Bolt in range, but from what I am seeing now they won't be close.
 

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Discussion Starter #14 (Edited)
]but the starting Model 3 will be close to $50,000. Even then, the Bolt won't be that far behind in range because the Tesla is more powerful and will go through kWh quicker. The $35,000 Model 3 will have better acceleration than the Bolt, but will be behind in most categories including range.
in other threads this has been discussed - but I’ll repeat my opinion here

2 months ago I would’ve agreed with you on the 1st batch of Model 3’s being $50,000 affairs (maximize revenue/margin) - this would follow Tesla’s historic patterns, build the higher end more expensive stuff first - deliver base models later…

however with Elon’s recent statements about limited options (color and wheel size and RWD only) being the first target production - I think you will be able to:

a) take delivery a Model 3 for the stated base price if you have an early reservation
b) take delivery of it

also there will be an interesting dynamic in that some reservation holders will wait for a more fully featured 3 (AWD & bigger battery) which mean later reservations wanting to buy the RWD $35k base model will be offered a chance to take delivery sooner…this happened with Model X reservations with some later reservation holders moving to the “front” of the line if the current production versions met their desires/needs…while others earlier reservation holders waited for different models than met their needs.

the options that will push up the price are mostly the software (enhanced auto-pilot and full self driving sofware upgrades) - choosing these options do not cause a different car down the manufacturing line or sourcing different parts…

so while you may be able to push the price close to $50,000 the production line can/will produce the $35,000 model - and Elon wants to make a splash - he will get all sort of flack if none of the $35,000 versions ship…

so even though it goes against my personal experience and Tesla’s historic behavior, I’m stating for the record Tesla will delivery a significant number of $35,000’ish Model 3 before the end of 2017 - because they realize this is different…and there are existing reservation holders for which that is the car they want and planned to buy…

Note: if you take the $35,000 starting price and add the software options for enhanced autopilot and full self driving (each $1000 cheaper with order for the Model S, more after car delivery) - the Model 3 prices out as follows:

$35,000 base car (RWD - 215 miles range)
$5,000 enhanced autopilot
$3,000 full self driving capability
$2,500 premium sound

the range of cars sold/delivered will be $35,000 - $45,500

given Elon’s intention to ramp production quickly there will be no

AWD model
Different Battery Size
or a lot of options that cause manufacturing differences

And having driven Tesla’s for 4 years - they do not go through kWh “quicker” because they are more powerful, if you drive them conservatively they do not consume more kWh than any other EV (other than he weight difference) - you CAN drive them more aggressively and then your kWh consumption is high- but as with all EV’s they are highly efficient, and you do not pay penalty for torque/power you do not use…

and I also don’t know other than range how the Tesla Model 3 will be behind in “most categories” - what categories are you thinking the Bolt will trump the Model 3?

I’ll give the Bolt the following categories

Range but not by much (existing Model S 60’s are routinely driven 230 miles by their owners)
Passenger Space
Cargo Capacity
Better cargo hatch on the Bolt
Easy of getting in/out
360 degree overhead view for parking
kudos to the Bolt for an included WiFi hotspot

I’ll predict the Model 3 will dominate in

Auto driving abilities and general technical abilities + all the features of chevy’s “driver confidence packages” - abilities getting better over time w/software updates
Self Parking ability
Summon
eventual AWD version
eventual battery size choices
Future abilities added to the car (OTA updates)
Built-in music streaming service included w/car commercial free unlimited skips (spotify or slacker - existing feature in S/X)
Integrated web-browser in the infotainment - great in a pinch when you need to look something up.
Integrated google maps
Included car data system for remote access and diagnostics (onStar) at no additional costs
Integrated navigation with charging aware trip routing (existing in S & X)
Homelink standard with GPS based auto-open/close (existing software feature in S/X)
Better charging story (mobile 240 volt charger standard - 40 amp with plug) at least 40 if not 48 amp charger standard - 48 amp option with Wall mounted charger - J-1772 adapter included with car.
GPS aware charge settings
Comfort of the front seats
Performance
Reliable nationwide Super Charging network - w/existing Chademo adapter for access to more chargers

so I’ll be generous and call the items below a Tie!

most would agree the Model 3 is more stylish than the Bolt - but I know some love the Bolt
remote app
drivetrain/battery warranty
fun to drive
good acceleration/handling
low maintenance
affordable
can drive long distances
seat 5 people
some cargo flexibility (long items with 2nd row folded down)
first scheduled maintenance is in the 100k miles range - tires/wipers up until then
one peddle driving (regen)
brake longevity
easy to park being a smaller car
 

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I thought I heard that the first Model 3's will come with the larger battery size, heard it a few different places. So the first Model 3's are not expected to be the low end. Also speculation that the all glass roof will not be standard, but will be released at launch. So in the beginning you may see more expensive Model 3's than the base model. Only time will tell... The first Model 3's will also be sold to employees, so the backlash will not be there for the typical consumer expecting a $35,000 car. Plus it seems that over 70% of the Model 3 owners want the base autopilot, so really the base model will be $40,000 since almost everyone will pay for that.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
https://electrek.co/2017/05/03/tesla-update-model-3-production/

given that you can add all the 'software' options after purchase I don't see that anyone needs to actually buy it at delivery time - and $40,000 is less than $50,000 and puts it in line with a Premium Bolt - elon has been making noises about limited production choices and a very simple configurator for the online ordering - so I'm betting the following. They have already mentioned only glass roof - and not reset expectations on price - so all glass roof is the only option on all cars (will turn some people off) at the $35,000 price (they have already made this change on the Model S all glass is the only option but two choices, fixed all glass, or a pano-sunroof)

guessing at options for Model 3 first round production through end of 2017

Exterior Color
3 choices of interior (black, beige/light brown, white non-leather option)
wheel size 18" or 19" (maybe color silver vs. black)
Enhanced Auto-pilot $x,xxx ($x,xxx+$1000 done after delivery)
Full Self Driving $x,xxx ($x,xxx+1000 done after delivery)
Supercharging pre-paid
Premium sound


missing

battery size options - constrained and a PITA to manage/forcast inventory - so no choice here at first - one size fits all - boom no manufacturing delays!
no AWD - later
heated seats - later
more interior color/wood combinations - demand generation
a "P" performance version (0-60 in 5.5'ish seconds) - much later - probably only P w/AWD - no P RWD S or X at this time…
premium package (LED lights, cabin filtration and other options)

Elon will use the AWD version to also ad a "P" top-tier option - that car will be $52,000++ placing it just below an entry model S 75D (AWD 0-60 in 5.2 seconds 259 miles range $55,200 after rebates)
 

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Discussion Starter #17
by mid 2018 you will have the following basic Model 3 choices

RWD 215 mile version
AWD 220 mile version (AWD teslas do better on EPA range on same battery size)
Performance AWD 210 mile version
and maybe one battery size choice - 60 vs. 70 kwh

and like porsche keeps the Caymen from encroaching onto the 911's performance the Model 3 will remain tantalizingly close but never better than the entry level Model S 75 RWD - pricing will also be kept in line…

and a slightly increasing set of options around interior and goodies…but nothing major.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
Note: if you take the $35,000 starting price and add the software options for enhanced autopilot and full self driving (each $1000 cheaper with order for the Model S, more after car delivery) - the Model 3 prices out as follows:

$35,000 base car (RWD - 215 miles range)
$5,000 enhanced autopilot
$3,000 full self driving capability
$2,500 premium sound

the range of cars sold/delivered will be $35,000 - $45,500
I'm also willing to bet that since they are rolling out the first production models to employees - employees will all get enhanced autopilot and FSD "included" in their purchase price (which is probably also discounted) - since all Model 3's have the EAP/FSD hardware the software is 'free' - Tesla needs the data from testing that can only be accomplished with a large scale public beta (100's if not 1000's of employees driving these cars everyday)…I'm betting it's a NO brainer for employees internally $29,750 (%15 off my guess) with all the software bells and whistles along with a signed NDA and agreement for "deep data gathering/telementry" via pay-roll deductions at an attractive interest rate…

Tesla gets to test

1. production
2. 3 month longevity - what are the first things that break - let's fix those
3. a vast number of miles/week on the autopilot software for machine learning
4. most of them deliver the car each/every day to the service center to be "fixed" training the service techs
5. willing and less vocal community of users all working to make the product better…
6. they can capture actual cars and diagnose them for days/weeks if necessary to actually get to root cause

in California a car out of service for 30 days is lemon law worthy - if you've got engineering working on a particular problem for 1-2 weeks to keep the car in the state it was in to diagnose root cause, that's a lot of your lemon law budget if those were production models…

the employee purchase plan is the public beta Elon desperately needs - and if they can product 500 cars a week - that's 3,000 Models in 6 weeks driving and gathering data for the machine learning their neural network needs for full self driving, and debugging the physical aspects of manufacturing and real world driving…Elon's not so dumb.
 

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Well it doesn't look the kind of thing you and the local shade-tree mechanic would do on a rainy Saturday :laugh:
Oh I don't know... some of us could possibly get that sucker out in an afternoon. I envision a two post car lift, a utility trailer and some custom fixtures. Put the Bolt on the lift by it's factory lift points, disconnect the battery, lower the Bolt down onto the utility trailer with the fixtures in the trailer to support the weight of the battery pack, use four bottle jacks to keep the trailer suspension from compressing and then remove the bolts holding the pack in. Then raise the Bolt up, release the bottle jacks, tow the trailer out and take it to the Chevy dealer, or aftermarket dealer.

There is an investment in time and money for sure (as well as a place to put a two post lift!). You'd have to be pretty serious about tinkering with your Bolt.
 

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Oh I don't know... some of us could possibly get that sucker out in an afternoon. I envision a two post car lift, a utility trailer and some custom fixtures. Put the Bolt on the lift by it's factory lift points, disconnect the battery, lower the Bolt down onto the utility trailer with the fixtures in the trailer to support the weight of the battery pack, use four bottle jacks to keep the trailer suspension from compressing and then remove the bolts holding the pack in. Then raise the Bolt up, release the bottle jacks, tow the trailer out and take it to the Chevy dealer, or aftermarket dealer.

There is an investment in time and money for sure (as well as a place to put a two post lift!). You'd have to be pretty serious about tinkering with your Bolt.
Make sure you video it when you do it ;)
 
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