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I believe that $100/kWh is really the starting point because that is the expected cost for NCM 712 batteries, which use about 50% less cobalt than the cells in the first generation Bolt EV. A private individual can purchase new NCM 622 cells (like those used in the Bolt EV) for $150/kWh today, so the prices are definitely dropping quickly.
 

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On their post comments talking about GM solid state being available 2025. By that time my 2017 should be outta warranty. May not be worth much by then. Since I'm doing a lot of work from home my milage is not even 20k on a 3 year old Bolt. I'm thinking I may only have 35k on it by then. Hopefully by 2025 they really do have a much bigger battery pack+ much faster DCFC + much of the hoped for ancillary stuff at least offered up as options like V2H, built in AC inverters, heat pump, wireless charging standards, hud, ultra cruise etc.
 

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On their post comments talking about GM solid state being available 2025. By that time my 2017 should be outta warranty. May not be worth much by then. Since I'm doing a lot of work from home my milage is not even 20k on a 3 year old Bolt. I'm thinking I may only have 35k on it by then. Hopefully by 2025 they really do have a much bigger battery pack+ much faster DCFC + much of the hoped for ancillary stuff at least offered up as options like V2H, built in AC inverters, heat pump, wireless charging standards, hud, ultra cruise etc.
GM already has functioning solid-state batteries, but it's still unlikely that they will make it into vehicles by 2025. That's simply not enough time to thoroughly test a new technology and then test it in a new automotive platform. Their NCMA batteries aren't likely to be ready to until a year from now, and they'll definitely try to leverage that technology as long as possible. It's very likely that the ~400 Wh/kg that NCMA cells are capable of supporting will be more than enough to bring EVs mainstream, so the solid-state batteries might be reserved for luxury and special purpose vehicles (i.e., heavy duty pickups).
 

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The big issue with wireless is poor efficiency. For a transit operator that has to be balanced against the purchase and maintenance cost of maintaining the SAE J3105 overhead chargers that use a motorized set of rails to connect to the bus.
Well I think it's in the details of the implementations - with L1, L2 and DCFC they will also have resistance losses and the wiring WILL heat up due to loss. Last I've check there IS a Tesla SUPERCHARGER, but even that one does not involve liquid helium cooled SUPERCONDUCTIVE Wiring.
 

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I will throw out my optimist speculation that the first Ultium modules will show up on Google shopping search before the end of 2021 - prices at around $125 per kwh and drop from there as they make more and they sell more.
 

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I will throw out my optimist speculation that the first Ultium modules will show up on Google shopping search before the end of 2021 - prices at around $125 per kwh and drop from there as they make more and they sell more.
That is VERY optimistic. I don't see it happening.

My prediction is that production will be supply-limited, and they will only be available for GM cars by the end of 2021. By 2022, we may see other OEMs buying them and building their own cars based on them. But those are large orders of MWh proportions. I doubt we will ever see them available via a Google shopping search for purchase by the public, in any quantity.
 

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When GM says they will be licensing their Ultium batteries and modules, I think they are referring only to large OEMs. I highly doubt a private party will even be able to inquire about purchasing these units. That being said, GM was targeting a sub $100 per kWh cost, so another automaker (such as Honda) will probably be able to buy them for $100 to $125 per kWh by the ed of 2021.
 

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When GM says they will be licensing their Ultium batteries and modules, I think they are referring only to large OEMs. I highly doubt a private party will even be able to inquire about purchasing these units. That being said, GM was targeting a sub $100 per kWh cost, so another automaker (such as Honda) will probably be able to buy them for $100 to $125 per kWh by the ed of 2021.
My thought process would br a GM part number just like our Bolt Battery packs. I speculate they would have different versions and Part numbers but still be available through dealers.
 

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My thought process would br a GM part number just like our Bolt Battery packs. I speculate they would have different versions and Part numbers but still be available through dealers.
Ah. You think the battery part numbers will be released before the EVs using Ultium batteries are being sold?
 

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I was under the impression the new Cadillac BEV 3 Ultium is being introduced Aug '20 and released next year?
Ah, the Lyriq. Yes. We'll know more in Aug. It's being released as a 2022 MY, so my guess is that it will have a Bolt EV like release of December 2021. As I understand it, Lordstown won't even start producing batteries until about a year from now.
 

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Car and Driver says next Year... High sticker price though...
Yes, all of the Ultium-based vehicles (BEV3) will have a high sticker price for at least the first half of this decade. And that is why BEV2 will carry on with the Bolt EV/ EUV - to fill in the affordable low end of the market. Once BEV3 comes down in price to Chevy-like price tags (as opposed to Cadillac or Hummer), BEV2 will disappear.
 

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Yes, all of the Ultium-based vehicles (BEV3) will have a high sticker price for at least the first half of this decade. And that is why BEV2 will carry on with the Bolt EV/ EUV - to fill in the affordable low end of the market. Once BEV3 comes down in price to Chevy-like price tags (as opposed to Cadillac or Hummer), BEV2 will disappear.
I don't entirely agree. The higher price tag is simply thanks to the Cadillac branding, but BEV3 won't be synonymous with Cadillac for that long. While the Hummer EV, Sierra EV, and Suburban EV aren't built on the BEV3 platform, several new non-Cadillac EVs are already in the works that will be. Other than Ultium batteries, the primary distinguishing feature of BEV3 versus BEV2 appears to be the ability to support AWD, so the upcoming Buick SUV that's been promised will likely be based on BEV3.
 

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I don't entirely agree. The higher price tag is simply thanks to the Cadillac branding, but BEV3 won't be synonymous with Cadillac for that long. While the Hummer EV, Sierra EV, and Suburban EV aren't built on the BEV3 platform, several new non-Cadillac EVs are already in the works that will be. Other than Ultium batteries, the primary distinguishing feature of BEV3 versus BEV2 appears to be the ability to support AWD, so the upcoming Buick SUV that's been promised will likely be based on BEV3.
Time will tell of course. But if I look at history, I suspect that BEV3 roll out will be in the high-end ultralux for a few years. I just cannot see a Chevy BEV3 released before 2025. I'd love to be wrong of course.
 

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Time will tell of course. But if I look at history, I suspect that BEV3 roll out will be in the high-end ultralux for a few years. I just cannot see a Chevy BEV3 released before 2025. I'd love to be wrong of course.
That's fair, but keep in mind that the Ultium batteries are actually cheaper to produce than the Bolt EV's battery pack, and they are not exclusive to the BEV3 platform (i.e., they can be used in an EV built on the BEV2 platform). GM already referenced a car with only a 50 kWh pack (made possible by the Ultium modules), and it was being referred to as an "economy car."

Now, whether those Ultium packs are using NCM, NCMA, or solid-state battery cells is another question entirely. I see the last two chemistries being reserved for higher end models with more range and higher energy consumption. I can, however, also see a budget-friendly BEV2 platform using Ultium modules and NCM 712 cells under the Chevy brand, possibly before 2025.
 
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