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Discussion Starter #1
Just seen this article from Green Car Reports talking about GM's possible production capacity that starts by basing it off of the Sonics production numbers around 90,000.

What are you thougths about this?

Last year, the Sonic sedan and hatchback combined sold 64,775 units, down notably from the 2014 total of 93,518.

Through last month, Sonic sales were 45,798, against sales through October 2015 of 53,829, which would bring likely this year's total Sonic sales down to something like 55,000.

Next year, it seems safe to assume that Sonic sales will continue to decline, as small cars continue to lose sales to crossover utility vehicles and the Sonic enters its seventh model year without a major update.
That indicates a production capacity of at least 35,000 Bolt EVs, once the line is up to full capacity—against 30,000 Nissan Leafs sold in 2014, the highest recorded total for any electric car in the U.S. to date.

The comparison is slightly deceptive, as Bolt electric cars built in Michigan will be exported as well as sold in the U.S.

They are to be sold in Europe as the Opel Ampera-e, and apparently in China as well under the name of Buick Velite.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107127_gm-ramps-up-2017-chevy-bolt-ev-electric-car-production-how-many-can-it-build
 

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GM says the Bolt is not production constrained.
The Bolt is built on the same assembly line at the same time as the Sonic (about every 4th-5th cat right now), so easily 90K+ is feasible. LG would of course need to provide the requisite number of battery packs, etc, and that is not a "we need more next week" scenario. Production in and shipping from Korea means careful forecasting and planning. Probably why GM had been conservative on 1st year sales. Easier to bump production to meet demand than have excess inventory and the PR of "fail" on another EV.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Well said and with that being said throughout this initial phase it will likely be a bumpy road but of course anyone willing to wait and ride it out should have no problem in getting one. I feel that with EV's like this there some passion behind it, more than a regular A-B car, which helps.
 

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They'll probably stick to around 30,000 units and see how that goes before increasing production rates. That's how many Leafs they sold in 2014 and the Bolt was estimated to sell around the same amount in the first year.
 

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I don't think that there will be any problem with the Bolt blowing the previous EV "sales per calendar year" record out of the water. For the first 12 months it will be the ONLY 200+ mile range EV under $60K. So, anybody who has been thinking about an EV, but been on the fence because 80-100 miles on a charge 'just isn't enough' will be interested. Also, all the people who are getting out of their EV lease (because it is ending) will be interested. Plus, anybody who has been considering an EV and probably would have gotten one anyways will be interested. That's a lot of prospective future Bolt owners. I think that all other EVs are going to take a significant hit in terms of sales this year, unless they are *significantly* less expensive (say, under $30K before incentives).

The only way GM moves fewer than 40K units the first year :
1) they can't build them (infrastructure or supply problems, including batteries or even defects)
or:
2) they lose money on each car sold (so they will limit production)
or:
3) there is a strategic reason to build fewer (say, maintain a high price, or not run out of limited govt EV incentives)

I absolutely think that the demand will be there.
 

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I'm starting to think that even if GM loses money on it for the first couple years they will still push hard to break through in profit or at least ride it out to the point they have a diversified EV line up which then it will really pay off.

In a market that is only going up, in the beginning its a bumpy road.
 
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