Supposedly GM is paying LG Chem $145 per kWh of battery capacity. That pencils out to just under $9K for the battery. If we assume that in 7 or 8 years that cost will be driven down to less than $100 per kWh, and there's not a huge amount of markup on a replacement battery, you are talking about spending maybe $7K or so for a replacement battery itself, and maybe another $1K or $2K for labor. Will it be worth replacing in 8 years? Who knows. That partially depends upon what other electric vehicles are out there in 8 years and what sort of range they have and how much they cost.
Well, those numbers aren't that bad, but it seems that battery prices haven't fallen all that much, have they? Can we assume that battery prices will fall that much in 7 to 8 years? Unless everyone switches to a new chemistry, isn't there potentially a lithium shortage that could actually drive up prices in the future?
IIRC, there are three South American companies that pretty much control production of lithium today. They own the easy to extract lithium. So until someone comes up with an equivalent of fracking for lithium mining, the world is a little bit at the mercy of these three players much like we have been controlled by OPEC and the Saudis. They can just reduce production to keep prices high.
People have been trying to bring alternate production online, but not a lot of success to date. Still, fracking for oil has shown us once again, where there is a will there is a way. Anyhow, it's just something to think about, but not stress about.
You can't compare the longevity of Li-Ion batteries in consumer devices like power tools or cellphones to predict the longevity of Li-Ion batteries in a car. Their usage profiles are different, their charging systems are much different, and their battery chemistry is much different.
No, I get that they are very different in some ways, but I wonder if automotive batteries have the same sort of failure mode where they work one day and then suddenly dead the next? Maybe the battery management system tells you, or forces you to replace the battery long before they just up and die? Just curious, that's all.
Being an EV early adopter carries a certain amount of risk. Based on the questions you are asking, which are good ones to ask, it sounds like your level of risk tolerance may not be sufficient to be an early adopter. With such a relatively expensive car, it's prudent to be cautious and wary.
It's true that I'm not usually an early adopter of anything. I'm usually the last guy to get onboard with new tech because I'm too cheap and want my money's worth out of the old tech first. Still, on the other hand I'm no stranger to taking a leap of faith if I'm passionate about it.
In 2005 I paid for and ordered a 2006 Pontiac Solstice just because I thought it was so awesome. I never even drove one before as they didn't exist and wasn't 100% sure I would be comfortable in it. My Solstice is the 51st one they built and one of the first in California. It all worked out and I still have it today.
After 12 years of renting airplanes, I decided to actually buy and own one of my own and owning your own airplane is just about the dumbest thing one can do financially. I'm six years in now and it has been very expensive but no regrets. The older I get, the more I feel it's only money and you need to use it sometimes.
I'm pretty fired up about an electric car right now!
