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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
GM absolutely must get its electrification program going.

If the EV tax credit passes, then buyers are going to get as much as $12,500 off the purchase of an EV. Who will want an ICE car then?

And now it seems that GM has thrown its only battery supplier under the bus. That relationship can't be going well right now. And I doubt that switching suppliers is a real option.

I want every car to be an EV. And we need GM to step up for the climate. But the Bolt is done. Hummer and Lyric are too expensive and will be made in small quantities. Electric Silverado is nowhere in sight.

I don't see how GM survives this when the ICE market craters and GM doesn't have EVs to sell.
 

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I don't see how GM survives this when the ICE market craters and GM doesn't have EVs to sell.
When do you think that will happen?

BEVs still make up a tiny fraction of automobiles sold in the US.

For GM, specifically, have you looked at their US sales releases like at GM Media Online? You can d/l PDFs of their deliveries on the right side of each/most entries.

Page 8 of the financial highlights from GM Reports Strong Second-Quarter 2021 Results can give you an idea of their vehicle sales elsewhere although I don't see a BEV vs. ICEV mix.

The analyst deck on page 5 mentions a $35 billion EV and AV investment from 2020 thru 2025.

I've been driving BEVs as my primary car for over 8 years, in one of the strongest plug-in markets in the US: Silicon Valley.
 

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If the EV tax credit passes, then buyers are going to get as much as $12,500 off the purchase of an EV. Who will want an ICE car then?
Most people, like usual. The price will be adjusted to hit intended sales volume, which means the bulk of the tax credit goes into the pockets of the manufacturers, or in the case of GM, less money will hemorrhage.

And now it seems that GM has thrown its only battery supplier under the bus. That relationship can't be going well right now. And I doubt that switching suppliers is a real option.
I'm sure the statements are careful to preserve the type of relationship GM wishes to preserve. LG is likely as eager as GM to move forward with their business partnership.

I want every car to be an EV. And we need GM to step up for the climate. But the Bolt is done. Hummer and Lyric are too expensive and will be made in small quantities. Electric Silverado is nowhere in sight.
Technology will progress more or less as it does; incrementally most of the time, and drastically occasionally.

I don't see how GM survives this when the ICE market craters and GM doesn't have EVs to sell.
That's likely at least 20 years out. Designing an EV is relatively simple, it's getting batteries that don't suck that's the tough nut to crack. The only domestic auto manufacturer that depends on EV sales for survival is Tesla, and a handful of insignificant other players like FUV.
 

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And now it seems that GM has thrown its only battery supplier under the bus. That relationship can't be going well right now. And I doubt that switching suppliers is a real option.
I don't think GM has thrown LG under the bus, because, as you say, switching suppliers is not an option. They have to work together to solve this, which includes the technical aspect and the financial aspect.
As one of our suppliers used to say...it's nothing personal, just business.
 

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I don't think GM has thrown LG under the bus, because, as you say, switching suppliers is not an option. They have to work together to solve this, which includes the technical aspect and the financial aspect.
As one of our suppliers used to say...it's nothing personal, just business.
I don't understand the "thrown LG under the bus" sentiment either and I've heard it several times on this forum. LG crawled under the bus willingly and HID, hoping no one would notice they were there. No need for GM to "throw" them.

Mike
 

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I don't see how GM survives this when the ICE market craters and GM doesn't have EVs to sell.
If you have to pick a perfect time for a disaster like this, GM did it...
They have been making money hand over fist recently...

They will survive this, no questions...
They will probably get some great tax write-offs too... ;-)
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Look at how fast EV adoption happened in Norway. BEVs were at 54% of sales in 2020. And it keeps going up in 2021. With enough incentives and charging infrastructure in place, EVs take off quickly. So if we put similar incentives in place, we should be right up there with Norway in five years or so.

Yes, some manufacturers will raise prices a bit to take advantage of the tax credit. But prices will come down quickly as automakers start to accept their usual margins in order to maintain market share. Again, few will want ICE cars. Just like in Norway.

So I don't see what GM will do when they are so far behind the competition. This is sad, because before the fires they at least had the option to crank up Bolt production and own the low end of the market with a really great car they could conceivably sell for under 20K after the tax credit.

Without the Bolt and with electric Silverado looking far down the road before scaled production, I'm quite skeptical that GM can get where they need to be in time before the tax credit money is used up.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
The feds wouldn't allow GM to fail.
That's what the tax credit is for. It favors GM and Ford (and Tesla to a lesser extent). The tax credit is the only thing that will allow GM and Ford to compete with Tesla and the Chinese EVs. GM and Ford can't scale up their EV programs profitably without the tax credits. But the credits could also be GM's undoing as it will shift sales away from ICE at a time when GM can't ramp production due to battery problems.

Now granted, this scenario depends on the tax credit passing and for it to be structured as we have heard. And it also depends on the idea that GM will continue to have problems with battery supply from LG. My point is that if they can't get things turned around fast, GM could be in big, big trouble.
 

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GM absolutely must get its electrification program going.
If the EV tax credit passes, then buyers are going to get as much as $12,500 off the purchase of an EV.
Yes, the timing is horrible: if the tax credit passes in late September or October, GM is unlikely to have any EVs to sell at all, so the rush of buyers will flow by GM, like a river parting around a rock.

As Redshift points out, EVs are a sliver of GM's business today. But if the rush of pent-up demand goes to Tesla, Ford and VW, then GM's slice of the "EV pie" will be smaller. That could affect future sales as the EV volumes become non-trivial.

Also, some of those Ford EV buyers will come from "GM families," and "conversion" of a "Client Opportunity" from a competing brand to your own brand is a holy grail in auto retail. Even if EVs are 1% of sales, losing1% of your "GM families" into other brands is bad. For example, what if somebody's good experience with a Mach-E means they go for an F150 when their Silverado starts leaving puddles?
 

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GM absolutely must get its electrification program going.

If the EV tax credit passes, then buyers are going to get as much as $12,500 off the purchase of an EV. Who will want an ICE car then?

And now it seems that GM has thrown its only battery supplier under the bus. That relationship can't be going well right now. And I doubt that switching suppliers is a real option.

I want every car to be an EV. And we need GM to step up for the climate. But the Bolt is done. Hummer and Lyric are too expensive and will be made in small quantities. Electric Silverado is nowhere in sight.

I don't see how GM survives this when the ICE market craters and GM doesn't have EVs to sell.
Going a little strong on the hyperbole. Hyundai and LG had a much worse spat and they are still working together.

I really don't expect GM will be shifting partners anytime soon. They have planned and funded together battery factories that will output 110 GWh of cells each year. That is enough for roughly 1.2 million cars a year.

GM is going to be just fine.
 

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GM absolutely must get its electrification program going.

If the EV tax credit passes, then buyers are going to get as much as $12,500 off the purchase of an EV. Who will want an ICE car then?

And now it seems that GM has thrown its only battery supplier under the bus. That relationship can't be going well right now. And I doubt that switching suppliers is a real option.

I want every car to be an EV. And we need GM to step up for the climate. But the Bolt is done. Hummer and Lyric are too expensive and will be made in small quantities. Electric Silverado is nowhere in sight.

I don't see how GM survives this when the ICE market craters and GM doesn't have EVs to sell.
I’m worried that some day, I will die.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 

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I subscribe to the theory that GM built the Bolt to learn how to build and market a mass market EV. I have read that at least at first they lost money on every one. Hopefully that is no longer true (at least up to the recall).

This is probably a painful lesson for them, but it is, in a way, the kind of thing they set out to learn. They are banking hard on the next generation of EV's. I don't expect them to throw this effort away. And keep in mind they took in $140 Billion in the 12 months ending June 30, so this is painful not devastating.

Will, it be the end of the Bolt? Maybe. I worry that no one will be making new cars for middle income earners soon. But, GM will be making electric cars in the future and you can be sure they will be darn careful about the batteries.
 

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I don't understand the "thrown LG under the bus" sentiment either and I've heard it several times on this forum. LG crawled under the bus willingly and HID, hoping no one would notice they were there. No need for GM to "throw" them.

Mike
“Throw under the bus” is to scapegoat, for a single party to take the humiliation and or punishment when not the only thing responsible.

I created that thread because I was tired of all the ‘GM this’, and ‘GM that’ while GM is a victim of LG also.

The partnership doesn’t extend to the purchase contract for the Bolt battery. LG is the supplier, and the contract will include what happens in the event the product is defective.

To calm down the lynch party, I thought a temporary re-direct was in order.

And most importantly, GM appeared to take my lead a couple days later when they said they have ‘no confidence’ in LG. Maybe they know something you don’t about tossing losers in front of the Greyhound depot exit.
 

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Maybe going back to the in house production model is good. I was never a fan of just in time supply chains either, but it does minimize losses on defective items in the warehouse.
 
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