Chevy Bolt EV Forum banner

1 - 17 of 17 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
25 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
We have paid in full for our new Bolt Premier, a smooth deal from Allen Gwynn Chevrolet in Glendale. MSRP, fully loaded, $43,510. GM got our business because they were the first to offer an affordable EV with 200+ miles range.

The Rewards: Being part of the EV movement (after really looking at all EV's available for years). Driving something that does not pollute our atmosphere while in use. Skipping the gas stations (and associated time and money expenditures). Yes, the tax credits and driving/parking perks are rewards too.

The Risks: Depreciation on these cars will likely be similar to other EV's. A $120K Tesla S from 2013 is worth about $50K today, if you find the right buyer. Early (2014) BMW i3 cars are headed for four figure resale values in a hurry. Nissan Leaf cars have been there for some time. Should we look at this Bolt vehicle as, ultimately, a disposible car?

So, for those of us who drive too much to qualify for a decent lease deal, we are just hoping the Bolts are reliable enough to give us five years of service from our new car. We are not counting on the car being worth much when we are done with it, which is the real shame in all of the pure EV's. With the cost of installing a new battery pack very likely exceeding the value of any used EV in the future, what will become of all of these high tech, and relatively expensive cars? Because it looks now like they will be throw-aways, and thus one has to wonder how that equation stacks up for the environment: (expenditure of energy/resources to make the car, versus enviromental gains in not polluting while operating, versus a vehicle that is essentially worthless after five years/100,000 miles--and must be disposed in some earth-friendly way).

We are pleased to be new Bolt owners, but if someone has answers for the downsides of EV ownership, please write!
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
787 Posts
I'm in the same boat as you: I drive too much for a lease to make sense. I'm betting that the car will good for at least 8 years or 100K miles, because that's the warranty on the battery. That doesn't mean the battery or car won't last longer. In all likelihood, it will last much longer than what the warranty calls for. We don't know what it will cost to replace the battery pack. We don't know how much range degradation will happen over the next 5 to 8 years. It's a total crapshoot. These new EVs aren't necessarily disposable, however. Just because you might only have 150 miles of range in 10 years doesn't mean that they aren't still usable.

I have never bought a car with any regards to future depecreation or future resale value. I buy them to use them. I tend to keep my cars for 6 to 12 years, and put a minimum of 150K miles before selling them on to a family member or friend. A car is meant to be a tool to get you from point A to point B in relative safety and comfort. They're not an investment. Sure, in 10 years I might not get as much range as I had when new, and that means I can't sell the car for as much as a comparable ICE vehicle or a new EV, but I can still pass it on to someone else who could use it to replace an ICE vehicle.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
25 Posts
Discussion Starter #3
Yep, I understand the logic, although the rate of depreciation for pure EV's is still a bit shocking. I also take your point about the car being somewhat useful at shorter ranges when the battery bank is only partially degraded. I guess the point I was trying to make is there's not much of a market for EV cars that only work at a percentage of their original design spec. I also believe we have not yet seen exactly how the used EV market is going to shake out, but if you gauge future trends by the values being fetched for ex-lease EV cars, that market is headed in the wrong direction.

We have a small collection of antique sports cars, and when I pay nearly $50K for a car, I am sort of used to the value of the car going up, not plunging. Granted, you can't commute in a classic sports car, but you can buy an modern ICE car that has reached its maximum depreciation. I'm not sure that's true with an EV--as I'm not sure anyone knows the rock bottom values for these cars in the future. What is certain is the older EV market will be vastly different from the older ICE car market.

Your response did make me feel better, and thanks for that. We are going into this purchase with a bit of trepidation, like most new buyers putting this kind of money into a new technology (at MSRP, north of $48K with taxes and licensing). However, we are excited about the adventure, and are willing to see what EV ownership brings, regardless of the outcome. Thanks again for your response.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,523 Posts
...the rate of depreciation for pure EV's is still a bit shocking.
Part of that high depreciation is battery degradation, but I think an even larger cause is the fact that every new model year has longer and longer range. So even if the battery doesn't degrade at all, an older car still becomes less desirable because its range is no longer competitive with newer cars.

All of the EVs with ranges around 100 miles are about to see this big time as the 200+ mile range vehicles start coming onto the market. The good news is that the 100 mile class EVs will have to get a lot cheaper in order to compete, which will open the market to people who couldn't afford them before. The bad news, of course, is that if you already own one of these vehicles you are about to loose a lot of resale value.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
862 Posts
Part of the cause of the fast depreciation is the $7500 tax credit. Since used EV's do not qualify, they suffer from a double dose of "drive it off the lot" depreciation instantly.

For a Bolt LT, the tax credit is 20% of MSRP before you own it an hour or drive it a mile.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
25 Posts
Discussion Starter #6
I understand the fact that there is no tax credit incentive to buy a used EV. But, the $7500 credit for a new car does not seem to explain the fact that a three year old Nissan Leaf is worth only 18% of its original MSRP. I think we are going to see an even stronger hit on the BMW i3, given the roll-out of the Bolt, which adds roughly 50% range to the i3. Folks talk about the Tesla S being somewhat resistant to this rate of depreciation, but if you check the actual sales data, a three year old Tesla S is selling for about 50% of MSRP. While that may be a lesser rate of depreciation, tell that to the guy who bought a $100,000 Tesla three years ago, and now feels lucky when he sells for $50K. Yes, maybe with the incentive money he only gave up $40,000, but that's still enough to buy a new Bolt!

I think those of us who are "all in" with EV's now are paying some premium by being stuck with some of the R&D costs now, but we'll wait and see whether the price of new EVs in the future starts to go down. I have a feeling the price of new EVs will only go down in a manner consistent with the decline of the tax incentive money.

Now that we have purchased our Bolt, and have the range we need in a primary EV, I'm thinking about doing some shopping for a used EV as a secondary car. I see a used, 2015 i3 in Las Vegas, with 300 miles on the car, for $15,000. A new, 2014 (never titled) i3 BEV just sold at a Chicago area BMW dealership for $26,900, and that was before the tax incentive to the new owner. The older Tesla S 60 cars are already in the $30K range. So, maybe a good strategy is to shop for a bargain used car, and simply take advantage of the depreciation now showing among the pioneer EVs, a depreciation that will undoubtedly come with our Bolt purchase too.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
172 Posts
It has been pointed out, with quite a bit of truth, IMO, that the tax credit actually carries over to the used market, lowering the price for a used EV below what it would be if the credit weren't available for new ones. No paperwork involved, either - you just get a discount up front.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,343 Posts
I understand the fact that there is no tax credit incentive to buy a used EV. But, the $7500 credit for a new car does not seem to explain the fact that a three year old Nissan Leaf is worth only 18% of its original MSRP. I think we are going to see an even stronger hit on the BMW i3, given the roll-out of the Bolt, which adds roughly 50% range to the i3. Folks talk about the Tesla S being somewhat resistant to this rate of depreciation, but if you check the actual sales data, a three year old Tesla S is selling for about 50% of MSRP. While that may be a lesser rate of depreciation, tell that to the guy who bought a $100,000 Tesla three years ago, and now feels lucky when he sells for $50K. Yes, maybe with the incentive money he only gave up $40,000, but that's still enough to buy a new Bolt!

I think those of us who are "all in" with EV's now are paying some premium by being stuck with some of the R&D costs now, but we'll wait and see whether the price of new EVs in the future starts to go down. I have a feeling the price of new EVs will only go down in a manner consistent with the decline of the tax incentive money.

Now that we have purchased our Bolt, and have the range we need in a primary EV, I'm thinking about doing some shopping for a used EV as a secondary car. I see a used, 2015 i3 in Las Vegas, with 300 miles on the car, for $15,000. A new, 2014 (never titled) i3 BEV just sold at a Chicago area BMW dealership for $26,900, and that was before the tax incentive to the new owner. The older Tesla S 60 cars are already in the $30K range. So, maybe a good strategy is to shop for a bargain used car, and simply take advantage of the depreciation now showing among the pioneer EVs, a depreciation that will undoubtedly come with our Bolt purchase too.


I think the difference between the Tesla and all the other EV's is that their depreciation is more in line with luxury ICEV's. Initially Tesla backed that up with a guarantee that it would hold it's value better than a Mercedes S class, (since dropped however). A 3 year old BMW 7 series depreciates 50% also, Jaguar even worse.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,523 Posts
It has been pointed out, with quite a bit of truth, IMO, that the tax credit actually carries over to the used market, lowering the price for a used EV below what it would be if the credit weren't available for new ones. No paperwork involved, either - you just get a discount up front.
Well, yeah of course. The Bolt's "real" base price isn't $37,500, it's $30,000. When Bolts start to hit the used market one should calculate their depreciation based on how much less than $30,000 they sell for. Using $37,500 as the "new" price for depreciation purposes, or for estimating what a used car should sell for is just plain stupid, IMHO.

The fact that some Bolt owners may not qualify for the tax credit is irrelevant. Most will, so that's the going rate. It's the same as someone who pays more than MSRP to buy a vehicle - that doesn't mean that their car is somehow worth more than everyone else's.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
862 Posts
Well, yeah of course. The Bolt's "real" base price isn't $37,500, it's $30,000. When Bolts start to hit the used market one should calculate their depreciation based on how much less than $30,000 they sell for. Using $37,500 as the "new" price for depreciation purposes, or for estimating what a used car should sell for is just plain stupid, IMHO.

The fact that some Bolt owners may not qualify for the tax credit is irrelevant. Most will, so that's the going rate. It's the same as someone who pays more than MSRP to buy a vehicle - that doesn't mean that their car is somehow worth more than everyone else's.
That is true today, but....
1) Congress could eliminate the Tax Credit
2) 2-3 years from now, the $7500 credit will either be gone or in the last stages of the phase out (due to volume)

Someone buying the Bolt 2 years from now may or may not be able to take advantage of the tax credit, and that will certainly influence the price of used Bolts. GM will likely lower the price as much as they can to adjust, but not sure if they can do the entire $7500.

Might also be a factor in GM Financial "inflating" the lease residual instead of passing on the entire tax credit as a CCR. Hedging their bets. If the used Bolt market is strong and the Tax Credit is gone, they may get at least part of the ~$5K bump back.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,523 Posts
Someone buying the Bolt 2 years from now may or may not be able to take advantage of the tax credit, and that will certainly influence the price of used Bolts.
It would probably slow the decline in value of used Bolts, but I'd be very surprised if the values increased. The only thing I can think of that might cause any sort of significant increase in value would be Trump policies that cause the major manufacturers to stop making and improving EVs. In that case a lack of supply would lead to an increase in prices.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
49 Posts
The older Tesla S 60 cars are already in the $30K range. So, maybe a good strategy is to shop for a bargain used car, and simply take advantage of the depreciation now showing among the pioneer EVs, a depreciation that will undoubtedly come with our Bolt purchase too.
Link to 30k Model S Teslas? All I see in SoCal are $40-45k Teslas with salvage titles...a CPO Model S is selling for $48k+.

www.ev-cpo.com
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
70 Posts
No one knows. It depends on how well the batteries hold up, and as someone else mentioned, if range increases significantly over the next few years.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
25 Posts
Discussion Starter #14
Regarding Teslas in the $30K range, eBay is one of the best sources. If you have an eBay account, just go to the ADVANCED feature, and ask for Tesla S in eBay Motors and Completed Listings, with your price parameters set between $30,000 and $40,000. To save you some time, you can also plug in the eBay item numbers listed below. These are eight cars that have sold in the last three months. One is a 40 kW car, but I included it because it was particularly nice. These were all 2013 model year, and prices were from $30K to $39K.

I've been following these eBay cars for some time, and have even entered the sold cars in a rather elaborate spread sheet. Bottom line is prices are coming down. Also, many of these sellers are just private parties wanting to clear their garage for a new Tesla, and seem like reasonable people to do business with, at least from their ad narratives/descriptions. Hope this helps! eBay item numbers below:

182377516329, 122227454773, 322349505175, 291929030121, 302153748749, 201733255056, 162329155214, 282227896759

PS. There is one salvage title and one rebuilt title in this group, but I included them because they looked like nice cars. AlohaBolt
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
2,067 Posts
Earlier this year, I was HEAVILY scouting used Teslas as I was leaning towards picking up a used Model S over waiting for a Bolt. During my time researching used Teslas, the best deal I came across was a CPO 2013 Model S 85 with tech package, leather seats, and rear facing seats. I believe it had around 45k miles and the price offered was $39k + taxes and a $1.5k delivery fee.

I SERIOUSLY considered picking up that Model S, but in the end I held off.
And now my Bolt should be in my driveway hopefully in less than 2 weeks. :) Was pretty tempted by the S though. In the end, I decided that it was just too big a car (and I didn't want to be seen as flaunting a Tesla as some sort of statement).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
75 Posts
Yeah besides the price the size of the Model X was a bit of a turnoff for me. The car is so long it would be a pain in the a** to park here in LA.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
350 Posts
It all depends...

My 2016 Spark EV LT2 with DCFC was discounted to $19,500 (4oJ sale in 2106), so net cost to me was $12K.

kbb.com and one of the local dealers agree that it's worth $10.5-12K as a tradein, so the total monthly cost to me will be pretty nominal by the time I trade it on a Bolt.

I'll buy the Bolt, as I'll only drive it a few thousand miles/year, so I expect to be at the high end of resale value whenever I sell it. I typically keep a car for around 3 years, but if it performs as well as I hope, it may be a keeper.

Leasing would make no sense for me - I'd be paying close to $2/mile driven.
 
1 - 17 of 17 Posts
Top