"A study by the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that 3.4 DCFC, and 40 Level 2 charging ports are needed per 1,000 EVs. Assuming
35 million EVs by 2030, the U.S. will need to build about 50,000 DCFCs and 1.2 million Level 2 ports. This means that 380 EV charging ports will need to be installed each day over the next nine years! In comparison, the U.S. has installed on average about
30 ports a day between 2010 and 2020.
How much will this cost? Building an EV charging station is expensive because of installation costs and specialized hardware. Installation involves permitting and grid connections which may require additional distribution grid upgrades. Together,
hardware and installation could cost as much as $4,500 per Level 1 port, $20,000 per Level 2 port, and $90,000 per DCFC."
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EVs will help reduce carbon emissions from transportation. As opposed to the sticker price, the real bottleneck in EV uptake is about charging them quickly and conveniently. Building EV charging stations requires dealing with locality specific zoning laws as well as upgrading the electricity grid.
www.forbes.com
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A large majority of the level 2 charging at homes, apartment complexes, and at work parking lots could be simply 1450 outlets, at 1/10 of the price of a commercial charge station, if we would implement overtheair billing in the cars for the energy used based on location. This also would be much more robust in eliminating inoperative charge stations. (It's hard to damage a 1450 receptacle)
The good news is that according to
EV Hub (Atlas Policy), of the $3B VW Settlement Funds awarded to states via the Environmental Mitigation Trust Fund,
only 21% has been allocated to date (EDIT: As of 7/2020). This money is on top of the $2B Electrify America investment requirement. Interestingly, California has yet to allocate any of the $422M awarded to them.
To put that in perspective, with $7B being added in the recent legislation, it seems promising that future infrastructure supply will stay ahead of demand.
My opinion is, public charging in its current state is somewhat overbuilt in many areas. Granted, this observation is anecdotal based on observations that it is rare for more than 25% of plugs being in use at most public DCFC sites at a given time. And yes, there are isolated incidents of shortages, predominantly at Tesla Superchargers on holiday weekends, but these are not as common as day to day low utilization rates. Also, there are places like WV where public charging is woefully inadequate. On the whole though, we may currently be a bit ahead of the curve.
Another observation I have concluded is that Tesla SC sites are far and away higher utilization than CCS. This is partly due to over 70% of EV nationwide being Tesla, but also partly due to lifetime free SC charging grated to early adopters. Several of the long-time Tesla owners I know rely on free SC in place of home charging. Assuming Tesla is able to swing some of the public funds for expansion of their network, it may be adequate to keep up with demand, but the free SC charging benefit might get squeezed if demand grows faster than supply. Opening SC sites up to CCS could accelerate a demand squeeze. Fortunately, many of the lifetime free Teslas will be traded in for newer models and lose this benefit. But, will Tesla be forced to expire the free charging benefit at some point?
With the vast majority of EV charging occurring at home, the biggest need is probably in the area of multi-family dwelling sites. This is a difficult nut to crack, but one that promises to open the floodgates when landlords and condo associations embrace the idea of providing charging options for residents. I seem to recall over 50% of residents live in single family homes, over 70% in my area. Surely, many urban areas are weighted more heavily towards multi-family residents. Over time, if landlords and associations embrace EV charging like other trends (units equipped with modern appliances, internet, etc), much of this need would be addressed with private funds in order to attract residents.
My other observation is, EV adoption at the current 2-3% levels may be insufficient to sustain existing public charging profitably. It seems few (if any) public charging networks operate profitably at the current state. Again, it seems we are currently overbuilt and yet we are ready to more than double the investment in infrastructure. If that investment is the carrot that leads more drivers to choose EV, then the rapid growth in EV market share should soon catch up with supply. With a number of EV charging networks going public (EVGO, ChargePoint, Blink), shareholders will be watching profitability and urging more private investments as profits rise. I wonder if EA will go public once the $2B investment cycles are completed?
At the end of the day, I expect public funding to be viewed through the lens of history as seed money to stimulate EV adoption. I expect private businesses will take things to the next level and reduce the need to rely on public assistance.
With Utilities already involved in nearly 40% of existing and planned public chargers (per
EV Hub), and a growing number of utilities engaging in Smart Charging initiatives and incentives, I am confident the utility infrastructure will keep pace with demand. They faced a similar demand surge when Air Conditioning came on the scene, then demand declined as efficiency improved. Surely, the utilities are watching for demand increases from the EV trends, and will find ways to meet the demand.
To your point about multifamily needs being addressed with outlets vs EVSEs, I agree. I would add, 5-15R could even solve the problem for a great number of potential EV owners given national averages for commuting being less than 40 miles a day. If workplaces also embrace at least Level 1 charging, coupled with Level 1 at home, nearly all of the demand could be met. A few Level 2 outlets or EVSEs at each site to supplement the Level 1 may be all that is needed to adequately address the needs of all.
Edit: Clarified the 21% settlement fund allocation is as of July 2020.
