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Next New Chevy Bolt Not Until 2025

12K views 62 replies 25 participants last post by  elite88 
#1 ·
#2 ·
It's not Chevy saying this, is some people making speculations. Move along.

I'll speculate that a major revision to the Bolt will happen in 2021, where the car will add “Deluxe Super-Rapid Charging”, with the ability to have the car bake a loaf of fresh bread in only 30 minutes while it charges, leapfrogging Tesla's proposal to have their cars' cooling systems double as espresso machines.

Meanwhile, there will be a scandal that Volkswagen's “Electrify America” DC fast charging stations were actually programmed to lie about how much electricity they supply and each charging session is secretly powered by a dirty diesel TDI engine.
 
#3 ·
In general, automotive production tooling does not last 9 years because stamping dies and welding jigs wear out and become out of tolerance. Cars are restyled during the chassis life cycle because it makes economical sense to restyle the body when the production tooling needs to be updated. The Bolt chassis may stay in production for some time, maybe even out to 2025, but I think the body will have a restyle at some point. GM did release information recently that more EV's are going into production well a head of 2025. It is a safe assumption that the base chassis for those vehicles will be based on and/or a modification of the Bolt's architecture.
 
#7 ·
It’s far more likely the Bolt will become the Sonic of EVs, a low volume car that quietly gets retired in a few years. I just don’t see any mass market appeal for the Bolt, it’s simply not what the general public is buying.
 
#6 · (Edited)
Eight years is a long cycle for any car model, but an eternity for an EV, since EV technology is advancing very quickly compared to a typical ICE car.

While it’s difficult to forecast model designs that far into the future, I would be very surprised if the Bolt design is used for more than a few years. GM can’t stand still while newer and more advanced EVs are introduced by other manufacturers.

One thing to consider is battery energy density. Right now the 60 kWh Bolt battery weighs about 1,000 pounds, has the energy equivalent of about two gallons of gas, and takes up the entire underside of the chassis. As battery energy density improves battery size and weight will shrink, making the basic Bolt design unnecessary. There may not be dramatic battery advances in a year or two, but eight years out it’s likely battery design will be very different than what’s in the current Bolt.
 
#9 ·
Given what it costs to develop a vehicle, it's no shock that GM would want to amortize the cost over a more or less normal cycle of 8 years on a platform. As far as battery tech goes, Li batteries have been around for decades and intensively researched, improvements are likely to be incremental and more focused on cost reduction than cramming more KW into the same size and weight. IOW, "affordable" EV's are likely to stay in the 60 KW battery size.
But of course I'm biased as owner of a '17. I'd prefer it not be obsolescent before I pay it off.
 
#13 ·
The energy density of lithium batteries has roughly been doubling about every eight or nine years. Although some improvement is incremental, progress “jumps” when a better chemistry or new manufacturing technique is introduced. While there’s no guarantee this trend will continue, there’s billions being spent on battery R&D, and it’s likely that EV drivetrain weight will be less than that in an equivalent ICE vehicle in just a few years.

Smaller and lighter batteries will mean better range for an equivalent kWh rating. If the Bolt battery weighed 500 pounds less range might top 300 miles while still using a 60 kWh battery. Lots of Bolt components could also be lightened, compounding the positive affect of a lighter battery. A 2,500 pound Bolt would perform much better than a 3,500 pound Bolt.
 
#11 ·
It seems most likely that Chevy will continue to make the Bolt in it's current form for about four more years, with the only significant change being improvements in the battery pack. The next generation has already been unofficially announced for introduction in the next model year: it will have a 75 kWh battery pack using 1-1-1 technology. This will reduce the cost of the battery pack as well as extending the range. I do not foresee them making upgrades to the drivetrain: that's a huge change, and the car is plenty peppy enough already. With 200 hp and 266 ft-lbs. of torque, wheelspin is a problem with the tires delivered on the car.

The volumes just aren't there for major changes and upgrades to the Bolt. Even the battery upgrade(s) are likely to be less of a design improvement than the reality of Chevy's battery supply: LG will no longer want to make the more expensive 6-1-1 batteries, and may offer the better 1-1-1 batteries at a lower price.

It's much more likely that Chevy (and other GM brands) will introduce other models that are more mainstream in design and will compete directly with Tesla: a four door sedan and a four wheel drive SUV are prime candidates. They have already said that a bunch of new electric vehicles will be released by 2023. It's likely that one of those new EVs will make the Bolt redundant.
 
#19 ·
The Honda Fit has been around for 19 years and still going strong.
3 revisions: Gen1 2001 - 2008 (MPG 38/45) / Gen2 2009 - 2014 (MPG 28/35)/ Gen3 2014 - Present (MPG 33/40).
Not really a whole lot that can be changed in The subcompact rolling 'Sun Flower Seed' vehicle class (like the Bolt). If the vehicle is popular, there is no reason to make any drastic changes.

The Fit is considered a very noteworthy car. Interestingly, when introduced to the U.S. in 2006, the Fit sold a total of 27,934 units. The Bolt EV's debut year sales was (about) 23,800. From 2007 on, the Fit sells an average of (about) 55,000 units/year like clockwork. The Fit is considered 'mainstream' and successful. If the Bolt sells over 40,000 units/year in US, it should have a similar longevity & update trajectory with very minor modifications.

2002 Gen1 Honda Fit



2010 Gen2 Honda Fit



2016 Gen3 Honda Fit

 
#27 ·
For those who are looking for a four wheel drive, more luxurious, CUV version of the Bolt, it already exists, and of course it is twice as expensive.



We definitely need to develop this technology as quickly as possible. We are going to need it for emergency vehicles, buses, tractors, etc. I just think that private motorized coaches are a vestige of another century, that must, and will be going away very soon...whether we like it or not.
 
#39 ·
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#43 ·
Tesla's market share may be going down but the number of EVs they sell keeps on going up!?!
Yeah, that's to be expected as other manufacturers start to ship more EV models. Nobody should expect that Tesla will be able to satisfy the world's demand for a huge variety of vehicle types. They may remain the biggest EV manufacturer, but they certainly won't have the more than 50% of the market that they do today.
 
#42 ·
Yes, because others are starting to actually sell EVs in quantity. This is frankly what we need to see. Tesla alone cannot provide enough (or the right) EVs for everyone.

I hope that in 2022, Tesla's US market share is less than 50%, and yet their sales increase significantly from 2021. To me, this will indicate a healthy, robust market.
 
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