There's a HUGE variation in temps in California, even within just the SF Bay Area. I've posted some example Phoenix, AZ temps and some example high summer Bay Area temps:
Capacity Loss on 2011-2012 LEAFs - Page 601 - My Nissan Leaf Forum

How long 'til 4th bar drops? - Page 52 - My Nissan Leaf Forum

How long 'til 4th bar drops? - Page 52 - My Nissan Leaf Forum

How long 'til 4th bar drops? - Page 53 - My Nissan Leaf Forum

The 40 kWh batteries (on non-Plus '18+ Leafs) seem to be holding up pretty well too. I've only heard of very few that are down 1 capacity bar. 30, 40 and 62 kWh Leafs have 8 year/100K capacity warranties.
24 kWh only had 5 year/60K capacity warranties. In either case, you need to be down to 8 capacity bars (4 bars gone) or lower before expiration.