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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I am thinking about going with an EV as a cheap commuter. Was looking at Nissan Leafs vs Chevy Bolt. Since this is just for commuting looking at used (or low grade new). I am not needing extended range for long distance trips. My father and brother both have Bolts so I am pretty familiar with them as a vehicle as well as the ongoing recall/buyback issues. I am hoping the collective knowledge here can help with a question of timing. I would look at getting a 2017 or 2018. With the recall I understand it may be a while before it gets a new battery and I will have to deal with that headache. Do you all expect increased prices once batteries are installed? What happens to all the vehicles that are being bought back, I imagine they too will get a battery replaced and end up back on the market at some time....will that increase supply and bad PR decrease demand (given most buyers don't educate themselves fully--only that the "Bolt's have battery issues". Curious to any predictive thoughts on this.... TIA
 

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I am thinking about going with an EV as a cheap commuter. Was looking at Nissan Leafs vs Chevy Bolt. Since this is just for commuting looking at used (or low grade new). I am not needing extended range for long distance trips. My father and brother both have Bolts so I am pretty familiar with them as a vehicle as well as the ongoing recall/buyback issues. I am hoping the collective knowledge here can help with a question of timing. I would look at getting a 2017 or 2018. With the recall I understand it may be a while before it gets a new battery and I will have to deal with that headache. Do you all expect increased prices once batteries are installed? What happens to all the vehicles that are being bought back, I imagine they too will get a battery replaced and end up back on the market at some time....will that increase supply and bad PR decrease demand (given most buyers don't educate themselves fully--only that the "Bolt's have battery issues". Curious to any predictive thoughts on this.... TIA
With the new batteries and an 8 year/100,000 mile warranty, it will get top dollar
It would be better for you to get one if possible before it gets new batteries, if you wait it could
Go up in price
 

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Used Bolt prices seemed to be in the $12-14K range earlier in the year. Chip shortages impacting new car availability have been driving used prices up. The shortage of used Bolts right now due to GM putting a stop sale on dealers adds pressure to the price inflation.

When GM removes the stop sale, there should be a flood of used Bolts for a short period as dealers fix the batteries and move them off their lots with attractive pricing. New batteries with increased capacity and warranties will add some value so the time to jump would seem to be fairly soon after the stop sale is lifted. But if the chip shortage is resolved and new cars start rolling off the lines again, used prices could fall again. While it is possible GM and NHTSA might allow Bolts with the SW update applied (but not new batteries) to be sold, that seems unlikely so it could be sometime in early 2022 when the high priority Bolts are fixed and they move on to lower priority ones.

Then there are general economic pressures, if the fall\winter season drives COVID rates up again, and knee jerk reactions are tossed in, no telling what the impact might be.

It seems like roller coaster is the best analogy. Market timing is always a challenge, and the other extenuating factors add uncertainty.

In short, nobody will be able to give you definitive predictions, too many moving parts.

Good luck!
 

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I agree with ARob that it’s anyone’s guess. However, except in rare circumstances a car is a depreciating asset, so it’s hard to argue that waiting, unless it is actually costing you money in the meantime, is a bad decision.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Used Bolt prices seemed to be in the $12-14K range earlier in the year. Chip shortages impacting new car availability have been driving used prices up. The shortage of used Bolts right now due to GM putting a stop sale on dealers adds pressure to the price inflation.

When GM removes the stop sale, there should be a flood of used Bolts for a short period as dealers fix the batteries and move them off their lots with attractive pricing. New batteries with increased capacity and warranties will add some value so the time to jump would seem to be fairly soon after the stop sale is lifted. But if the chip shortage is resolved and new cars start rolling off the lines again, used prices could fall again. While it is possible GM and NHTSA might allow Bolts with the SW update applied (but not new batteries) to be sold, that seems unlikely so it could be sometime in early 2022 when the high priority Bolts are fixed and they move on to lower priority ones.

Then there are general economic pressures, if the fall\winter season drives COVID rates up again, and knee jerk reactions are tossed in, no telling what the impact might be.

It seems like roller coaster is the best analogy. Market timing is always a challenge, and the other extenuating factors add uncertainty.

In short, nobody will be able to give you definitive predictions, too many moving parts.

Good luck!
Agreed...my thinking is along this lines (while no one can predict the future), the increase in used car prices is really due to new car/ship shortage, rental car agencies purchasing (rather than selling) at auction. I expect those pressures to abate in the coming months....with the lifting of the stop sale would pre-fix or fixed vehicles flood the market thus reducing prices--in addition to the buy back vehicles that have to go somewhere (unless GM scraps them due to cost to replace the battery is greater than the value).
 

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Agreed...my thinking is along this lines (while no one can predict the future), the increase in used car prices is really due to new car/ship shortage, rental car agencies purchasing (rather than selling) at auction. I expect those pressures to abate in the coming months....with the lifting of the stop sale would pre-fix or fixed vehicles flood the market thus reducing prices--in addition to the buy back vehicles that have to go somewhere (unless GM scraps them due to cost to replace the battery is greater than the value).
Magic 8 ball or dice may be your best odds... I don't expect any to be scrapped.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Used Bolt prices seemed to be in the $12-14K range earlier in the year. Chip shortages impacting new car availability have been driving used prices up. The shortage of used Bolts right now due to GM putting a stop sale on dealers adds pressure to the price inflation.

When GM removes the stop sale, there should be a flood of used Bolts for a short period as dealers fix the batteries and move them off their lots with attractive pricing. New batteries with increased capacity and warranties will add some value so the time to jump would seem to be fairly soon after the stop sale is lifted. But if the chip shortage is resolved and new cars start rolling off the lines again, used prices could fall again. While it is possible GM and NHTSA might allow Bolts with the SW update applied (but not new batteries) to be sold, that seems unlikely so it could be sometime in early 2022 when the high priority Bolts are fixed and they move on to lower priority ones.

Then there are general economic pressures, if the fall\winter season drives COVID rates up again, and knee jerk reactions are tossed in, no telling what the impact might be.

It seems like roller coaster is the best analogy. Market timing is always a challenge, and the other extenuating factors add uncertainty.

In short, nobody will be able to give you definitive predictions, too many moving parts.

Good luck!
Agreed...my thinking is along this lines (while no one can predict the future), the increase in used car prices is really due to new car/ship shortage, rental car agencies purchasing (rather than selling) at auction. I expect those pressures to abate in the coming months....with the lifting of the stop sale would pre-fix or fixed vehicles flood the market thus reducing prices--in addition to the buy back vehicles that have to go somewhere (unless GM scraps them due to cost to replace the battery is greater than the value)
GM scrapping them seems less likely given today's news: General Motors, LG Electronics Reach Agreement on Bolt EV Recall Costs.
you are right...didn't think of that...looking at the trends from usedcarguru looks like it used Bolts (average) bottomed out in Jan 2020 at around 17K---currently sitting at $22,500...I would expect the price to normalize back towards that 17K. With that I'll be on the look out for a good deal but probably wait until mid 2022 at this time...
 

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The main factor is used car pricing in general, as that has gone up 30%.

Practically nobody will know the Bolt is getting a new battery, so that will be a minor factor for price. We all assume consumers are like us and informed, but that isn't the reality.

I'm holding out for new car production to ramp up to meet demand, and drive used car prices down.

I monitored inventory as the first stop sale was lifted, and it didn't really flood the market much. I'd expect less flooding due to limited battery supply causing inventory to trickle out rather than releasing all at once.

High fuel prices will begin to push people back into efficient vehicles, so that's another factor that could increase demand for the Bolt. If higher fuel prices got you to consider an efficient commuter vehicle, then that's evidence of the theory.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
The main factor is used car pricing in general, as that has gone up 30%.

Practically nobody will know the Bolt is getting a new battery, so that will be a minor factor for price. We all assume consumers are like us and informed, but that isn't the reality.

I'm holding out for new car production to ramp up to meet demand, and drive used car prices down.

I monitored inventory as the first stop sale was lifted, and it didn't really flood the market much. I'd expect less flooding due to limited battery supply causing inventory to trickle out rather than releasing all at once.

High fuel prices will begin to push people back into efficient vehicles, so that's another factor that could increase demand for the Bolt. If higher fuel prices got you to consider an efficient commuter vehicle, then that's evidence of the theory.
Good thoughts...I think the danger in waiting is the risk of higher fuel prices and more people turning to EVs....I have wanted to make the change for a while (regardless of fuel costs) but it wasn't until my wife got her new plug in Wrangler 4xe were we in the position to get rid of my vehicle. Reality also set in that I don't need an EV with a 500 mile range nor do I need to spend over 60K! For me I will actually put some money in the bank (initially and monthly with fuel savings) when I get rid of my other Jeep for an EV.
 

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Do I understand correctly that the new proposed EV federal tax credit/rebate would apply to GM again if accepted? In this case, the proposed $12,500 total tax credit/rebate would bring down a new 2022 Chevy Bolt base trim down to an effective ~$20k. I guess this number might be used as an upper estimate for a used Bolt next year.
 

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My assumption is that now is the time to sell extra vehicles and to delay purchases. My expectation is for used car prices to return to normal, which will have a greater effect than factors specific to the Bolt.

My crystal ball is as cloudy as the others though, so anything could happen.
 

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The knock on the Leaf (other than its relatively short range which is not an issue for you) is it's lack of thermal management for the battery, resulting in more battery degradation than the Bolt, especially if you live in a hot, cold, or hot and cold climate. If you live near the coast between SF and Seattle, that might not be too much of an issue.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
The knock on the Leaf (other than its relatively short range which is not an issue for you) is it's lack of thermal management for the battery, resulting in more battery degradation than the Bolt, especially if you live in a hot, cold, or hot and cold climate. If you live near the coast between SF and Seattle, that might not be too much of an issue.
Yes! That is what got me away from the Leaf...I'm in Idaho where we routinely hit 100+ degree days for weeks on end AND then below freezing throughout the winter. I won't be able to park in the garage (except to charge)--since my wife has taken over the garage and turned it into her gym....so that (and the familiarity with it from my family members) is what has me looking at the Bolt.
 

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Do I understand correctly that the new proposed EV federal tax credit/rebate would apply to GM again if accepted? In this case, the proposed $12,500 total tax credit/rebate would bring down a new 2022 Chevy Bolt base trim down to an effective ~$20k. I guess this number might be used as an upper estimate for a used Bolt next year.
That bill seems to have a snowball's chance in Phoenix of passing as is. But, good point, driving new prices down will push used down even further.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Do I understand correctly that the new proposed EV federal tax credit/rebate would apply to GM again if accepted? In this case, the proposed $12,500 total tax credit/rebate would bring down a new 2022 Chevy Bolt base trim down to an effective ~$20k. I guess this number might be used as an upper estimate for a used Bolt next year.
That still is a big IF...there are also proposals limiting purchase vehicle price (the Bolt would likely be under it) and/or income limits of the buyer. I also heard that there might be an incentive for purchasing used EVs, so to reduce the massive depreciation that would be expected with new EV incentives
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
That bill seems to have a snowball's chance in Phoenix of passing as is. But, good point, driving new prices down will push used down even further.
or give the manufacturers the ability to increase profit margins by raising new vehicle pricing
 

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or give the manufacturers the ability to increase profit margins by raising new vehicle pricing
Not for the remainder of 2022 model year. Sure, they may bump it up $1-2k next year and pocket some of it. After all, the idea behind incentives is two fold, encourage R&D spending and stimulate buyers.
 

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That still is a big IF...there are also proposals limiting purchase vehicle price (the Bolt would likely be under it) and/or income limits of the buyer. I also heard that there might be an incentive for purchasing used EVs, so to reduce the massive depreciation that would be expected with new EV incentives
I guess this hypothetical federal rebate thing (how much? To whom? New vs. used) is just an additional unknown in your equation :)
 
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