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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
I have been shopping for a 2017 Bolt for 9 days now...and had one short test drive. And digested much of this forum. And have a 48 hour test drive starting tomorrow.

I am still deciding between lease and buy, and figuring our a fair price.

I want a 2017 LT with Comfort, Confidence and QC. The net says that MSRP for that is $39,250.

I have a GM supplier pricing deal from my employer that is supposed to bag me a 'haggle free' 5% discount off MSRP. That would be: $37,300 or so. Not clear I can't do better haggling.

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My question on the lease versus buy question is, of course, resale value.

The residual on the lease deal (via leasehackr and others) is 0.59 for 36000 miles.

This implies a 11/2020 resale (auction) price of 0.59*39250 = $23,150

Other sites suggest that actual resale (auction) price in 11/2020 would be 39% of MSRP, or
0.39*39250 = $15,300

The difference between the lease residual in use and the projected resale is $7850, which is shockingly close to the fed rebate of $7500.

Of course, I leased a LEAF, which benefitted from both a super high residual ($21k if I recall) which reflected the $7500 rebate to the dealer and several thousand dollars in Nissan cash.

I am in PA which is a CARB state, so GM gets the equivalent of $13.5k in ZEV credits that it can put towards selling stinky pickups if it likes. They are probably doing ok profitwise on sales in CARB states without trying to steal my tax credit.

So, I guess I hear people complain about high lease rates, and GM stealing the $7500, but it seems to me in 11/2017 in a CARB state, that their lease rates are fairly priced, wth a residual value increased by $7500 relative to projected resale.

Of course, I will likely buy anyway. I would rather get the $7500 today, invest it, and pay it back in extra $7500 in financing over the next three years and then sell the car (or have the option of keeping it if I like).

I am not interested in hearing about super-duper discounts in CA, just mostly if anyones else here has come to a similar conclusion re lease versus buy economics, at least in a CARB state??

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For the record, the lease quotes I am getting for $0 down are about $420±20/mo, and I assume that my $0 down financing will come in $630±20 for 60 months. IOW, buying will be about $7500 less up front, and then $210/mo more, or $7500 more over 3 years.
Amortization tables suggest my loan balance would be $15k in 11/2020, close to projected resale. That is, other than time value of money, if the $15k estimate is accurate, its a wash.

As for the percentages....0.59 resale for a 3 yo Bolt seems too high...the Model S is 0.62 residual, and the leaf is 0.18. Even if you compute resale by discounted sale price, the LEAF is still only 0.30. 0.39 of MSRP sounds about right or perhaps slightly conservative to me for a 3 yo Bolt.
 
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