[Packard V8]

We feel your pain. How something so simple can become so complicated? Answer, it's the Chinese ;>)

There's a house in my neighborhood which has been a zombie for four years now. The mortgage was bundled and sold to Chinese investors. It's literally impossible for all the computers we have to figure out who actually owns the house today and how it can be put back on the market.

jack vines

 

[RoadTripBiker]

I expect there will be a China sub-compact EV around $25k at some point. It will do about as well as all the other sub-compact cars have done in the last few years... poorly. Americans will want even bigger vehicles when they don't have to buy gas for them.

Maybe, you must be a young guy who wasn't around during the 60s and 70s. The American cars of old where big big big. Then came the oil embargo, expensive gas and no gas and due to emissions regulations the cars didn't run well or perform at all. LOL they didn't accelerate but rather gently gathered speed. Small cars became vey popular to the point GM came out with the Vega and Ford the Pinto. For 20 years or so cars were much smaller then they started to get bigger again and the SUV craze began. Now gas is expensive again and interest rates are going up again - what's old is new again or something like that.

Back in the Vega times GM took a big car and made it small. Toyota took a tiny Japanese car and made it bigger. Hint, it's easier to make a small car bigger than a big car small. However the Bolt is a great small car so GM clearly have learned how to make a good small(er) car.

Tesla has clearly made it from a startup to a legitimate manufacturer. Rivan and the other it remains to be seen and Rivan's latest dumb move was not good for their future. They and others are trying to emulate Tesla's business model. Start with an expensive halo vehicle and make it successful then build a less expensive vehicle to launch from the halo image. Problem I see for Rivan and others is Tesla hit the market at a good time with essentially no competition. Now Rivan is coming to market just as it seems like every manufacture has an EV in their price range that is coming onto the market. Competition for materials and funding will really be getting intense which will make it more difficult for a small manufacture like Rivan to stand up their production and compete. Getting all of the components designed or bought and incorporated is one thing but getting the mass production and supply chain organized working and scaled up is something else. Ford, GM, Toyota, VW and all those folks know how to do that very well.

Dealer gouging, nothing new about that. I still have a negative opinion of Honda cars and SUVs due to the rampant prices well above sticker when demand was high. Was glad to see Ford and others taking a stand about dealers marking vehicles up above invoice. I get the market price argument but that doesn't mean I'm going to pay it. I'm always looking at cars and prices and in January of last year when the Bold prices got stupidly low I bought one even though I didn't need a new car. At the time I thought it would be a long time before I saw prices that low again and I am amazed at what has happened since then.

 

[RacerX00]

We feel your pain. How something so simple can become so complicated? Answer, it's the Chinese ;>)

There's a house in my neighborhood which has been a zombie for four years now. The mortgage was bundled and sold to Chinese investors. It's literally impossible for all the computers we have to figure out who actually owns the house today and how it can be put back on the market.

jack vines

Actually it's a pretty small bank in Florida that has the mortgage and I've never been able to figure out if it's their servicer or their law firm that screwed this all up. They can't move it while it's in this legal state I think.

It's kind of funny, the bank got a new lawyer (same firm) a month ago and they've begun to play dirty and I think literally just realized their error (I'm DEAD serious). Last month I get a notice in the mail "You're 1172 days delinquent and we're about to foreclose on you."

So they've decided, "Wow, yeah we did screw up but we're going to hope the judge doesn't give you your house outright and we can re-file suit and then you have to pay what we say you owe unless you want to fight another foreclosure battle." But it's stupid because of course I'm going to fight that new foreclosure because it has an additional $50k fees at this point. So - to sum up, they foreclosed on me and made it so I can't pay my mortgage and then 5 years later they start to foreclose on me a second time for the non-payments they wouldn't let me make because they foreclosed on me. This is all legal.

Essentially it's like the Bolt on crack, completely out of my control but there's very little chance I can lose and it's completely aggravating. It's even got me stuck in NY because if I want to sell, guess what, they want that amount THEY say I owe them and not you know, what I actually owe them according to any sane and reasonable person.

I'm somebodies flippant stupid paper work error dragged out for 5 years in town court with no quick justice. Like the motion to dismiss hasn't even been heard in over a year because they're trying to put us through a mediation. This is a mediation for delinquent homeowners and the new mortgage they offer, if they even want to offer me one (their descretion) will include the fees! So 0 chance I accept, I have to go through the process and I get to sit in front of a judge called a "ref" who treats me as if I'm a deadbeat in person literally every time.

 

[cwerdna]

Maybe, you must be a young guy who wasn't around during the 60s and 70s. The American cars of old where big big big. Then came the oil embargo, expensive gas and no gas and due to emissions regulations the cars didn't run well or perform at all. LOL they didn't accelerate but rather gently gathered speed. Small cars became vey popular to the point GM came out with the Vega and Ford the Pinto. For 20 years or so cars were much smaller then they started to get bigger again and the SUV craze began. Now gas is expensive again and interest rates are going up again - what's old is new again or something like that.

Back in the Vega times GM took a big car and made it small. Toyota took a tiny Japanese car and made it bigger. Hint, it's easier to make a small car bigger than a big car small. However the Bolt is a great small car so GM clearly have learned how to make a good small(er) car.

I wasn't around for the 60's and wasn't born yet for the 1st oil embargo. I do have vague memories of the 2nd one. I posted some quotes about the oil crises at Remembering the 1973 oil crisis. I do recall the odd/even flag system.

You're referring to the "Malaise era" cars. And, yes, I'm well aware of the land barge cars of yesteryear.

What's crazy is that in earlier times (in the 2000s), before this crazy auto shortage, whenever gas prices rose, Americans would flee their SUVs (depressing their prices) and go for more fuel efficient cars. When they go back down, the opposite would happen. Prius resale values tended to fluctuate with gas prices. Auto executives have complained about this for ages, about it being impossible to plan because of the short term memories of American car buyers.

 

[RacerX00]

So, turns out I may have been making a wrong assumption in Rivian's honesty level when I opined on the situation. I may be right about it being stock-price related but.. not in the way I was saying if this is true...

In her wrongful-dismissal lawsuit against the company, former Rivian vice president of sales and marketing Laura Schwab claimed that Rivian's prices were unsustainably low. Her superiors said that they would be raised after the company's initial public stock offering. That IPO took place in November.

Rivian Backtracks on Price Increases after Facing Customer Backlash

Rivian reversed course on price increases for its R1T and R1S electric vehicles after major backlash and will now honor the original pricing for orders placed before March 1.

www.caranddriver.com

I bought a reservation for a poison pill, apparently. I am a dark cloud of car ownership. If I own the car or am about to own the car or am researching the car, stay away, boulders will fall from the sky that target that only make and model for some reason.

 

[bro1999]

I was seriously considering putting in a reservation for a R1S a few months ago, but guess it turns out it wouldn't have mattered as a reservation would have offered no price protection.

I wonder how many Cybertruck reservation holders still think they'll be able to get a $39.9k Cybertruck. Lol

 

[bro1999]

I was seriously considering putting in a reservation for a R1S a few months ago, but guess it turns out it wouldn't have mattered as a reservation would have offered no price protection.

I guess the Rivian CEO had a change of heart.

A Letter from Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe on Pricing Updates

The following is a letter from Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe regarding pricing updates: Hello Everyone, Earlier this week, we announced pricing increases tha

www.businesswire.com

 

[MisterJJ]

Maybe, you must be a young guy who wasn't around during the 60s and 70s.

Ha! I wish!
I was taught to drive in my dad's international harvester travelall. It was kind of an SUV before there were such things as an SUV. But he also had a little datsun pickup for work as a carpenter. Built his own custom bed toolbox out of wood. I learned to drive stick in that thing. It had something wrong with the shift mechanism that would allow the shifter to flop around so if you forgot what gear you were in and it flopped someplace else you couldn't pull it out of gear until you first moved it to the gear position it was actually in, then put in the clutch and shifted.

But... I was talking about more recent history of the sales of cars in the U.S. and the trajectory they are headed. Gas prices fueled the trend towards smaller, more efficient vehicles in the past. Now, higher gas prices could lead the charge towards EV's. If Americans have to face a choice between a small, efficient, ICE and an EV that is a big SUV, I think many will pick the SUV (SUEV?).

 

[MisterJJ]

I guess the Rivian CEO had a change of heart.

A Letter from Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe on Pricing Updates

The following is a letter from Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe regarding pricing updates: Hello Everyone, Earlier this week, we announced pricing increases tha

www.businesswire.com

Sounds like they'll trim costs and de-content a stripped model to satisfy the reservationists. Worked for Tesla, right? I suspect it will go even worse for them.

 

[RacerX00]

Holy ****. I wonder if it was the lawsuit from the VP that said in a court of law under oath they were lying about the cost of the car for the IPO or the cancelled reservations that made them backtrack.

Both?

I'm torn. Do I get my reservation back and sign back up for the pain knowing I'm getting a car I could flip for 30k profit at a minimum and be that guy or just call it quits? I really want to call it quits despite the obvious answer of getting my reservation reinstated. All this venting is real, I'm this fed up that I need to detach because I'm out of fuel (omg, pun) with the car drama I've had to experience over the past 18 months.

 

[RacerX00]

Sounds like they'll trim costs and de-content a stripped model to satisfy the reservationists. Worked for Tesla, right? I suspect it will go even worse for them.

Actually from the statement it sounds like they're going to give me the quad motor car with the options I spec'd at the price they quoted me...

 

[bro1999]

Sounds like they'll trim costs and de-content a stripped model to satisfy the reservationists. Worked for Tesla, right? I suspect it will go even worse for them.

Whatever they are doing, they are 100% tanking the stock. My god, every move they make is a shot in their foot as far as their investors go.

 

[bro1999]

Actually from the statement it sounds like they're going to give me the quad motor car with the options I spec'd at the price they quoted me...

The rate of cancellations (and $1k refunds) must have been alarming enough for them to backtrack on the initial price hikes. I say if you don't need the money, keep (or renew) your reservation. Whatever you do, just don't buy more RIVN stock. Lol

 

[RacerX00]

Whatever they are doing, they are 100% tanking the stock. My god, every move they make is a shot in their foot as far as their investors go.

Well I know I revealed my ignorance in the actual particulars of the price of the stock earlier but the problem is once everything is this speculative who gives a crap. Long term I'd buy them as it's the correct move. When you're building companies this large you're expected to run at a loss for a period of time and that's been true since at least when we've been building rail roads and telegraph lines.

I would have guessed it'd be obvious that doing this to your reservation base in light of those basic business facts is a lot of what set off the price stock sale yesterday. Anyone who thinks like this, meaning, anyone who understands actual investing, was instantly, "holy crap, what the **** is actually going on with this company" when they did this to us reservation holders. Couple that with the VP saying they inflated financials specifically for the IPO? Woo boy.

Ford and Bezos are massively invested and one or both would be top contenders to swoop in and rescue the company. Believe it or not the R1T is part of Ford's bet hedging on the passenger truck segment in case the F150 doesn't make the transition. At these prices if I'm willing to bet on the 5-year term of a company, I would (but I'm no investor). I think Rivian is going to make it because it's become the bet that has to work for people that are bigger than them.

 

[bro1999]

Well I know I revealed my ignorance in the actual particulars of the price of the stock earlier but the problem is once everything is this speculative who gives a crap. Long term I'd buy them as it's the correct move. When you're building companies this large you're expected to run at a loss for a period of time and that's been true since at least when we've been building rail roads and telegraph lines.

I would have guessed it'd be obvious that doing this to your reservation base in light of those basic business facts is a lot of what set off the price stock sale yesterday. Anyone who thinks like this, meaning, anyone who understands actual investing, was instantly, "holy crap, what the **** is actually going on with this company" when they did this to us reservation holders. Couple that with the VP saying they inflated financials specifically for the IPO? Woo boy.

Ford and Bezos are massively invested and one or both would be top contenders to swoop in and rescue the company. Believe it or not the R1T is part of Ford's bet hedging on the passenger truck segment in case the F150 doesn't make the transition. At these prices if I'm willing to bet on the 5-year term of a company, I would (but I'm no investor). I think Rivian is going to make it because it's become the bet that has to work for people that are bigger than them.

I totally see a class action lawsuit in the near future RE: IPO inflating.
I don't think Rivian will go under (some other company will buy them out long before they actually went out of business), but they sure are showing they are new to the public corporation game. Hopefully the CEO learns from these early stumbles and bumbles instead of doubling down like another fellow at a different EV company.

 

[RacerX00]

I totally see a class action lawsuit in the near future RE: IPO inflating.
I don't think Rivian will go under (some other company will buy them out long before they actually went out of business), but they sure are showing they are new to the public corporation game. Hopefully the CEO learns from these early stumbles and bumbles instead of doubling down like another fellow at a different EV company.

I really just don't care. I don't want class actions, BS and drama that eventually work out in my favor. I just want an honest marketplace.

I never even thought it possible that a VP of sales would just come out and spill the beans that they were playing with reservation holders all along.

His 30% number is hilarious. From my limited understanding that's not how car supply chains work and the raw materials that have gone up by a lot don't make up the entirely of even a single component. The downward pressures on battery packs themselves has been tremendous and lithium is apparently even a little lower than economists think represents a healthy market. This is a lot of the reason why the used market has gone up but the new market has stayed relatively even by comparison even for EVs. They can afford to make them at a profit still and are maintaining marketplace image at certain price points because it's good for their business model (until dealerships get involved).

None of this is some kind of secret only I harbor, just look at the financials of any of these publicly traded companies. The M3 went from 40k to 45k not 55k and cancel people who currently have orders in because "omg it's expensive!!!!"

Something is super rotten over there and it definitely has an impact on whether or not I want to restore my reservation. I've said it before on this thread but luxury cars over $50,000 are uniquely situated to avoid needing to do things like this because of huge profit margins that are supposed to be built in. We don't even know why the car needs to be $95,000 or if people will pay it yet... sigh.

 

[RoadTripBiker]

Not sure about lawsuit but do think they may be a takeover target but have to look at the price. What would it cost and what would the buyer get? Stock price probably too high now but Rivan is working on that

Had to look up production numbers. Built about 1,000 last year. Looks like they have a factory in Illinois that should be able to build 150,000 per year. Reservations for 71,000 - wahoo that number just dropped. So if they build just 100,000 this year then they will need to "sell" an additional 29,000. Next year say 150,000 but they have a plant in GA that will be online in 2024 and build 400,000 vehicles. Somewhere in the midst of all this they have to design and get into production another vehicle - presuming they SUV will be in production very soon.

Rivian Announces Production And Delivery Numbers For 2021

Rivian announced its production and delivery numbers for the year 2021, which happens to be close to the target hinted at in November.

insideevs.com

How many customers are out there for $95,000 vehicles? Market looks pretty crowded when you add in the ICE vehicles in that range. Ford backed out of the planned vehicle co-development with Rivan. Maybe they saw something that alerted them. Who knows how good the leadership team at Rivan really is. Some CEOs are good talkers and some know how to get the job done. Competition is pretty fierce for existing proven talent with other manufactures jumping into EVs. Add this to the difficult task of ramping up production and it is a very difficult road. Rivan has some interesting tech and design but think they have a long road ahead and some troubling signs.

Will be interesting to watch, Im predicting a good opportunity for shorts.

 

[EV Trek 37604]

Not sure if anyone posted this but it looks like Rivian has reversed their decision to increase prices to current reservation holders.

 

[MichBolt]

...I am a dark cloud of car ownership. If I own the car or am about to own the car or am researching the car, stay away, boulders will fall from the sky that target that only make and model for some reason.

So, stay away from Nissan Rogues. They were just recalled for a risk of fire while parked. Guess what the other car in my garage is?

 

[bro1999]

Not sure about lawsuit but do think they may be a takeover target but have to look at the price. What would it cost and what would the buyer get? Stock price probably too high now but Rivan is working on that

Had to look up production numbers. Built about 1,000 last year. Looks like they have a factory in Illinois that should be able to build 150,000 per year. Reservations for 71,000 - wahoo that number just dropped. So if they build just 100,000 this year then they will need to "sell" an additional 29,000. Next year say 150,000 but they have a plant in GA that will be online in 2024 and build 400,000 vehicles. Somewhere in the midst of all this they have to design and get into production another vehicle - presuming they SUV will be in production very soon.

Rivian Announces Production And Delivery Numbers For 2021

Rivian announced its production and delivery numbers for the year 2021, which happens to be close to the target hinted at in November.

insideevs.com

How many customers are out there for $95,000 vehicles? Market looks pretty crowded when you add in the ICE vehicles in that range. Ford backed out of the planned vehicle co-development with Rivan. Maybe they saw something that alerted them. Who knows how good the leadership team at Rivan really is. Some CEOs are good talkers and some know how to get the job done. Competition is pretty fierce for existing proven talent with other manufactures jumping into EVs. Add this to the difficult task of ramping up production and it is a very difficult road. Rivan has some interesting tech and design but think they have a long road ahead and some troubling signs.

Will be interesting to watch, Im predicting a good opportunity for shorts.

Why I didn't buy boatloads of puts when Rivian stock was flirting with $180..... facepalm
At the least it would have been a wise hedge against my initial investment in Rivian, but nope, I was drinking the koolaid and now I've overdosed. Lol