[enslay]

The extra costs can be significant for some of these EVs. If you're spending tens of thousands of dollars more to get an EV over the typical ICE vehicle you'd normally buy, you're probably not going to save any money on gas over the life of the vehicle. Or it may take a decade to recuperate the extra costs in gas savings. Because, face it, those tens of thousands of dollars could buy a lot of gas for your cheap Civic or whatever ICE vehicle.

An obvious example: If you normally drive something like a Civic and you go out and buy a new Model 3, you're not saving any money over something like a Civic. Hopefully you bought the Model 3 because you like it, not because you thought you'd make a killing on gas savings (you will, but you have that $60k Model 3 cost!).

When more EVs are on parity with some of the more affordable ICE vehicles, nobody will be able to argue this anymore.

 

[enslay]

It all just keeps going around again and again. In the 70s during the gas crisis more than a few folks traded in their land-barges for something that got better gas mileage to “save money”. Sure, get hosed on the value of your trade-in, buy a new car over MSRP, and “save money”? Most would have been better off to just keep driving the barge. Once you include the cost of replacing a vehicle that doesn’t actually need replacement it is almost impossible to come out ahead, gas or electric.

Yeah, I learned the hard way. I have a new 2021 Bolt Premier that I bought last year instead of buying out my 2018 Civic lease. I got a really great deal on the Bolt! But it's still significantly more expensive than just buying the Civic... even when gas prices are this high! I should have bought the Civic, sold it and then bought the Bolt with the monies. Though, if I did that, I may not have got the Bolt before the recall!

That's OK. The Bolt is the best car I've ever had. I'm pretty happy even if I know that I won't save any money over the life of the car... unless gas prices get silly high somehow! I projected about 20 years of gas savings needed to recuperate the upfront cost difference of the Bolt and Civic. I don't drive too much.

 

[enslay]

The battery replacement assumption is a common objection in my experience. People genuinely think you will have to replace your battery after 8-10 years. If true, this would really tip the calculations. I ask them how often they've replaced an engine. Well, hardly ever. Batteries are the same way. When the rest of the car is worn out, say at 200,000+ miles, most EV batteries will still have enough capacity to make a cheap and reliable commuter car.

The problem with projecting life of batteries is that some EVs and their battery packs haven't been out for 8-10 years to see what happens to those designs.

Though, having seen what happens to Leafs, I'm quite confident to assume that EV batteries with active thermal management will almost certainly last a "long time" (10-15+ years?).

 

[enslay]

People chose a Honda Civic in purpose to compare to a Bolt EV. Please tell me what Honda Civic has the features the Bolt EV has ? Start with what the teens nowadays like : HP and Torque. Discussion closed.

Honda Civic 2022 here costs (as per Canada site The all-new 2022 Civic Sedan | Honda Canada ) at comparable options as the Bolt EV :
View attachment 43404

A Bolt EV 2022 (2022 Bolt EV (chevroletoffers.ca) ) :
View attachment 43406

So the price is about the same, the problem is the Honda comes with the gas budget per month and oil change while the Bolt EV ... nothing else.

Too general. My situation is that my 2018 Civic was going to cost like $12k to buy out, but I returned it and instead paid $32k for a new 2021 Bolt EV Premier. I am not saving money and will never save money compared to just buying that Civic.

It would be different if I bought the Civic, sold it, and used the cash to buy the Bolt. But that's not what happened.

 

[enslay]

Civic Si 0-60 slowed to 7.1 sec in 2022. So, it is slower than the Bolt EV and even the EUV.

Honda Civic Si 0-60 Times and Quarter Time

Honda Civic Si 0-60 Times and Quarter Time

zero60times.com

Chevrolet Bolt EUV 0-60 Times and Quarter Time

Chevrolet Bolt EUV 0-60 Times and Quarter Time

zero60times.com

Even if the Civic was 6 seconds 0-60, that thing does NOT feel fast and responsive like the Bolt.

 

[enslay]

I'm OK with a 3rd party mechanic repairing EV batteries as long as they have equipment and training to do it. No way in heck should a typical DIY person be able to even touch an EV battery!

But if you're talking about power tool or laptop battery packs... well, those probably won't kill a careless person who makes a mistake. Those should be repairable or use a standard form factor.

 

[enslay]

The handshake between battery and tools is already begun with the new generation of tools. And I suspect it is to prevent us from using other battery pack or adaptors. My guess, It will be a thing in the future for pretty much everything including car parts. Look at that popular one wheel skateboard (can't remember the name) the last generation is using handshake between battery and bms so you can't install aftermarket

I think this will change in the distant future. Just need the right political atmosphere. We can't keep throwing stuff out! It's a waste of resources and bad for the environment.

 

[enslay]

My evidence for this position is the fact that we don't have 100% solar/wind,

Vermont has 100% renewables.

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vermont Transportation Data for Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

OK fine, there's 0.2% fossil fuels somehow. Notice the "all electric" CO2 output is 0 lbs per year.

I'm not sure what "Biomass" is. Here's a site explaining it (I'll read it later).

Biomass explained - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

How is biomass, such as plants, wood, paper and lumber mills waste, and municipal garbage converted into heat, into biogas, or into liquid biofuels.

www.eia.gov

They have a unique advantage with Hydro, but it just goes to show that it can be done.

 

[enslay]

Two points:

First: My electricity comes from co-gen plants (coal and natural gas - I think), so I'm not doing much to "save the planet" there. Some would say, that being in Vegas, you should get your energy from hydro-electric being that we have Hoover dam at Lake Mead. Come to find out that, that power goes to California. Who'da thunk it?

Second: So I make up for number one by installing solar panels (no cheap proposition). In my previous residence, I installed solar, and lived with that for about 8 years. Family circumstances require a move to a larger house. So, I didn't make up for the investment (except maybe the sale price was higher due to an owned solar system). Now, I've installed solar in this house, so in about 12-14 years, I will recoup my investment.....if I live that long.

Nevada is pretty good!

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Nevada Transportation Data for Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

EDIT: AFDC says Nevada is mostly Natural Gas, very little Hydro.

But let's say Vegas itself gets most of its energy from coal... well, you can use West Virginia as a comparison (since it's mostly coal):

Alternative Fuels Data Center: West Virginia Transportation Data for Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

It's not great, but you're still better than gasoline by about 1000 lbs of CO2.

 

[enslay]

As EV's proliferate, utilities will be over loaded and make up for it by raising rates.

I think that will only happen if EVs are adopted too fast. The utility capacity is growing annually already and I think Engineering Explained worked the math and found we'd need something like 30% more capacity if everyone in USA switched over to EVs overnight. But since everyone isn't switching over to EV overnight, it's completely feasible for utilities to keep up with EV adoption without any issues.

Neat Engineering Explained video on the topic:
EDIT: Although, IIRC, he didn't factor in population growth.

 

[enslay]

Certainly. But more capacity = more cost. Who is going to be paying for that?

I don't know if that's true or not. Too many unknowns about future technology and future sources of energy.

Maybe it's a modest increase. Or maybe energy generation transitions more to solar/wind/hydro and the free energy is offset by infrastructure costs or maybe newer transmission technology improves efficiency. Maybe fusion power (not fission) is finally discovered and uses dirt cheap fuel (cheaper than Uranium anyway).

 

[enslay]

You're making my point, not refuting it.

It's a counterexample to what you wrote. So... no, I'm not making your point.

 

[enslay]

I really like that free, public fusion reactor up there.

I like that "free" solar/wind/hydro energy everyone keeps talking about.

 

[enslay]

You really don't need 'new capacity', just mandate rooftop solar on new builds. The cost would be less than retrofitting afterwards and is rolled into your mortgage. Since power is produced in the city, there is no 'grid cost' or grid addition. As long as we have favorable terms for people to plug in during the day at work (or at home for WTF folks) and leave work with full tank. Then, with V2G, power their home for the night.

Yeah, OK. I didn't think of that possibility. People somehow generating their own energy to reduce infrastructure cost on the utility.

I honestly don't know what to expect. I think it will be a modest increase, but nothing like gasoline prices today!

 

[enslay]

You took a sentence I wrote out of context and made a strawman out of it. In fact, you cut out the preceding sentence "They [renewables] have applications where they are the best solution, and in other use cases they aren't."

You showed an example of where renewables might be the best solution, so how is that a counter example to what I said in the full context?

I'm confused as to what you argument actually is.

Yeah, you know... because VERMONT, of all places, is a vast spacious desert where solar and wind are the "best solution" and makes a ton of sense.

 

[enslay]

Residential solar doesn't decrease utility expense, but increases it

Depends where you live. That's certainly the case for my state. I bet it's cheaper in places like California where utility rates are far higher.

But we're talking more like future load on the grid. If everyone has solar panels on their house, maybe that will reduce infrastructure expansion and keep utility rates low. And if everyone has solar panels on their house, that probably means solar panels are mass produced and cheaper.

 

[enslay]

More confused than ever on what you're implying, as I made no mention of deserts... you seem to be saying renewables were a bad decision for Vermont.

Markets don't necessarily need to pick "best application" sources of energy and can be 100% renewable. You seem to think the opposite.

Yes, Vermont pays a premium for the privilege to have entirely CO2-free electricity. I don't know their policy intentions, but I'm guessing that's the entire point!

 

[enslay]

I'm enjoying the solar aspect of that, yes.

Oh, you're talking about the sun! Thought you were poking at my mention of any potential future fusion reactor... as if it were "free."