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It would be a lot more interesting from the point of view of a Bolt person to find out how many Bolts/Amperas are being sold globally. I'll look again at other manufacturers, including Tesla, in 1.5-2 years, when my Bolt lease expires.
 

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I can't tell if you think this is good or bad. If true, they're doing their customers and themselves a favor. They're saving their customers some dough and helping their sales for another quarter. They're not doing anything illegal so it sounds like a good strategy.

Although when Tesla reports their production numbers at the end of June, I don't want to hear that holding back on sales somehow impacted manufacturing and caused then to miss their numbers. "Honest. We would have hit our numbers, but there wouldn't have been anywhere to park all those unsold cars we were holding back so we had to shut down the line."
 

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Another 'good' strategy they are using is to NOT build or ship any Model 3 Standard vehicles this quarter - and likely will continue this practice until the end of the year. There is a lot less profit in the bare-bones Standard model: the Long Range version they are currently producing retails for around $50,000. Of course, those on the (very long) waiting list who want a Standard model (listing for $36,000) are screwed. Not only will they have to wait until next year, they will lose out on at least some of the federal tax credit. Elon is hoping they will go for the Long Range model instead when their number comes up.
 

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I haven't seen anyone covering this story except on Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker.


It looks like Tesla is trying hard to NOT sell its 200,000th car until the first of July. This way, the full tax credit is available to buyers for 3 extra months.


Scroll down to see the Tesla production blog:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
I wouldn’t rely on the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker to draw any conclusions about Tesla’s weekly production, or the reasons why production is still well under 5k per week. Tesla has admittedly had many production line issues, it’s been shut down multiple times in the past few months as line bottlenecks are addressed and equipment is reconfigured.

While there may be some advantage to hitting the 200k level after July 1, there’s also tremendous pressure on Tesla to hit 5k Model 3 cars per week by July 1. It looks unlikely that 5k will be reached by then, less than a week away.

I’m not convinced that this latest production quota miss is deliberate.
 

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I haven't seen anyone covering this story except on Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker.[/URL]
I've seen it covered a lot. Most observers think they are holding back for that reason, and shipping cars to Canada instead of US. But Tesla has not confirmed or denied anything.

Nice forum name, by the way. I just got that!
 

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Another 'good' strategy they are using is to NOT build or ship any Model 3 Standard vehicles this quarter - and likely will continue this practice until the end of the year. There is a lot less profit in the bare-bones Standard model: the Long Range version they are currently producing retails for around $50,000. Of course, those on the (very long) waiting list who want a Standard model (listing for $36,000) are screwed. Not only will they have to wait until next year, they will lose out on at least some of the federal tax credit. Elon is hoping they will go for the Long Range model instead when their number comes up.
I assume the quotes mean the strategy is good from Tesla's point of view but is in opposition to its customers best interest. It could even be described as a deceptive strategy if it wasn't made clear to those back in 2016 who put down a deposit that the $35k car wouldn't be available until at least 2019 well after the tax credit had expired. Musk says it's a no brainier that releasing the bare bones model would put the company in danger of bankruptcy. I would bet he was strategizing this years ago.

Sounds almost conspiratorial.
 

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Tesla can sell all the cars it has to other countries. The 200,000 limit is for US sales only.
Yep. They could be dumping all production in Canada right now, making sales and still preserving the 200,000 mark until next month. Building cars, paying to park them and not earning any money off them this month just seems dumb. Is it just that Canadians don't want Model 3s? :confused:
 

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Yep. They could be dumping all production in Canada right now, making sales and still preserving the 200,000 mark until next month. Building cars, paying to park them and not earning any money off them this month just seems dumb. Is it just that Canadians don't want Model 3s? :confused:
Being a competitive industry the auto industry sells in Canada in $Canadian dollars. That’s different than the luxury yacht market or harley davidsons who sell here basically in $USD dollars.

Right now the CAD has dropped to as little as 75-cents USD. That makes the loss situation even worse for BEVs sold in Canada. Besides the target market is small and those consumers tend to be loaded with mortgage payments associated with overpriced housing in big Cdn cities. No big EV volume available here.

Not understanding the US federal legislative processes much. But given the current WH attitudes I’d think its likely the $7,500 fed tax credit will be killed altogether… rather than keeping it’s bias in favor of the laggard EV producer ? Besides, killing it altogether might be a good test now that the industry is vested (plant production wise or just development wise) to see if the industry will come to the party on its own without as many crutches.
 

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Not understanding the US federal legislative processes much. But given the current WH attitudes I’d think its likely the $7,500 fed tax credit will be killed altogether… rather than keeping it’s bias in favor of the laggard EV producer ? Besides, killing it altogether might be a good test now that the industry is vested (plant production wise or just development wise) to see if the industry will come to the party on its own without as many crutches.
I would think that the reasonable thing to do would be to gradually lower it, to say $2500, regardless of the sales volume. But Congress operates in mysterious ways.
 

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Someone on another forum had suggested a lump sum of available slots rather than by manufacturer. It's really a more equitable distribution rewarding the manufacturers willing to take the risk of "first to market" whereas the system now gives the late arrivals an advantage. If they made 1,000,000 tax credits available on a first come first serve basis, then those waiting in the wings till the market takes off would be fighting for scraps. This would also have eliminated the "need" for Tesla to game the system as they seem to be doing.
I suppose it may still work out for GM and Tesla if the WH decides to eliminate it in next years budget. I really thought it would have been scrapped last year given the WH's aversion to renewables over FF.
 

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I really thought it would have been scrapped last year given the WH's aversion to renewables over FF.
It survives due to it's very nature of being self-scrapping. It's easy for those in congress to argue that it is a temporary program and it's easy just to let it die on it's own as a compromise. Had this tax credit been a permanent ongoing program, I'm sure it would have been axed.
 

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Being a competitive industry the auto industry sells in Canada in $Canadian dollars. That’s different than the luxury yacht market or harley davidsons who sell here basically in $USD dollars.

Right now the CAD has dropped to as little as 75-cents USD. That makes the loss situation even worse for BEVs sold in Canada. Besides the target market is small and those consumers tend to be loaded with mortgage payments associated with overpriced housing in big Cdn cities. No big EV volume available here.

Not understanding the US federal legislative processes much. But given the current WH attitudes I’d think its likely the $7,500 fed tax credit will be killed altogether… rather than keeping it’s bias in favor of the laggard EV producer ? Besides, killing it altogether might be a good test now that the industry is vested (plant production wise or just development wise) to see if the industry will come to the party on its own without as many crutches.

"Right now the CAD has dropped to as little as 75-cents USD. That makes the loss situation even worse for BEVs sold in Canada."


I'm pretty sure that sellers understand monetary conversion rates, and will adjust the sales price accordingly, rather than losing money on every sale.
 

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I would think that the reasonable thing to do would be to gradually lower it, to say $2500, regardless of the sales volume. But Congress operates in mysterious ways.
The phase out of the tax credit works as you describe. From motley fool...

The phaseout calendar starts once 200,000th qualifying vehicle is delivered. Buyers still get the full tax credit in that quarter and the quarter that follows. After that, the tax credit is halved (to $3,750) for two quarters and halved again (to $1,875) for the following two quarters. After that, it's gone.
 

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"Right now the CAD has dropped to as little as 75-cents USD. That makes the loss situation even worse for BEVs sold in Canada."

I'm pretty sure that sellers understand monetary conversion rates, and will adjust the sales price accordingly, rather than losing money on every sale.
That's not the way it works. Local Cdn prices as denominated in $CAD don't get jacked around based on fluctuation of the USD/CAD exchange rate.

Right now as a guesstimate the auto industry has it's MSRP's set around the assumption of $1.00 CAD = $ 0.85 USD. So with a current fx rate of $ 0.75 USD, there's a fx disadvantage of 12% directly off the top line revenue of the manuacturer.

It's great that Canada has it's own dollar and can determine it's own monetary policy. But for major durable goods, as a result it's treated as a "dumping" kind of market due in part to currency risk.
 
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