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Will the Tesla Model 3...

  • Help Bolt sales?

    Votes: 32 41.0%
  • Hurt Bolt sales?

    Votes: 15 19.2%
  • Make no difference either way?

    Votes: 31 39.7%

  • Total voters
    78
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In about a year from now, the Tesla Model 3 will likely be a reality and start to hit the streets in the hands of customers. I expect it to sell really, really well at least initially. The question here is, do you think the Model 3 will help Bolt sales, hurt Bolt sales, or really have no effect on Bolt sales?

On one hand, the Tesla holds a lot of cache. It's cool to own a Tesla, a Chevy not so much. The Model 3 is sexy looking and likely will be faster then the Bolt.

On the other hand the Bolt offers greater utility, a lower purchase price, a conventional dashboard arrangement and likely a little bit better range.

The Model 3 will likely be a short lived sensation with sales blowing the Bolt's numbers out of the water, but when it calms down and the short comings of the 3 are more well known, some consumers may start to cross shop.

On the other hand, the Model 3 may turn out to be a fantastic car in almost all respects so much so that only if you really need your BEV to haul stuff, there is no point to the Bolt.

There is also the argument that the Model 3 may increase interest in BEVs and get people to shop that otherwise would not with the the older Model S, LEAF, i3 and bevy of compliance cars. In effect, some might "discover" the Bolt in the process of learning about the Model 3. We have to remember that nearly all of America knows almost nothing, or cares very little about electric cars today. Many are down right hostile towards them.

Anyhoo, what do you all think?
 

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There is also the argument that the Model 3 may increase interest in BEVs and get people to shop that otherwise would not with the the older Model S, LEAF, i3 and bevy of compliance cars. In effect, some might "discover" the Bolt in the process of learning about the Model 3.
I believe this will be the case. Tesla gets a lot of press and interest from the general public, and when the Model 3 is released you can expect a lot of coverage. And since the Bolt EV will be the only other EV with similar range and price it will inevitably be mentioned. There will be a lot of comparisons between the two cars, and I'm sure that will do a lot to raise the Bolt's profile.
 

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So little is really known about the Model 3 that it is hard to draw conclusions, but anything that raises awareness of EV's and lends them credibility is bound to help.

I hope they can get a few cranked out by the end of the year. At some point they are bound to make a target production date. At least they started making the 2170's for the packs.

We'll see how many of the reservations get converted to sales. A higher percentage than I expected of the reservation holders I have talked to are wither on the fence or speculating that they can sell the reservation/car and make a buck or two.
 

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Anyhoo, what do you all think?
Realistically, I think it'll be more like the end of 2018 at the earliest; and for anyone who didn't already have a reservation & deposit in, and order a high-trim car, and live in California, it'll be even later than that.

But if Tesla meets their price, performance, production and timetable targets, I think the Model 3 will dominate the EV market overnight. Why? Because Tesla is a status-symbol brand and Chevy isn't (unless you're talking about Suburbans in Texas)...and if you're willing and able to lay down 30-40 grand or more, there's a good chance that matters to you.

To be fair, there are reasons Tesla has cachet...they reinvented and reinvigorated the EV category, they're unequivocally dedicated to it and the clean-environment motivation behind it, they don't make you battle sleazy franchised dealerships, and they've built a widespread and technically superior fast charge infrastructure. They're a company people want to reward, in other words.

However, I think a lot of starry-eyed Model 3 reservation holders are going to be disappointed when they see the inevitable compromises made to reach the price target: a spartan interior, slower charging rate than its big-battery siblings, etc. There's nothing wrong with a Honda Civic unless you were expecting a BMW 325.
 

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We agree that Tesla is carrying the star power in the EV market. We shopped heavily for a Tesla. In the end, a Model S was barely in our price range, and my wife truly thought it was too big, and too ostentatious. What we really wanted in a smaller EV was range. We are a rural EV user family, and a 200 mile range was our minimum. And, we did not want to have to carry around an ICE in order to make range.

So, the Chevy Bolt matched our needs first, and it was as simple as that. We are pleased to be able to offer GM/Chevy our business, and feel they should be rewarded for breaking the range barrier with an affordable car. We may well own a Model 3 someday, but were not willing to wait years to own an EV with a 200+ range, that was not a high price end, or a large,luxury car. We will likely be first in line for an EV SportWagen--so designers, get with it!
 

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Tesla already sold 83k cars (2 models) last year, which is more than any other EV or company's EVs by far. I don't think an EV by any other car company will come close to Tesla. Given the range issues with the Bolt in real world scenarios, lack of Bolt supercharging, Chevy badge (no cachet), and potential for low resale values, I don't think the Bolt will make a significant impact in the end, despite positive initial reviews.
 

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"There is also the argument that the Model 3 may increase interest in BEVs and get people to shop that otherwise would not with the the older Model S, LEAF, i3 and bevy of compliance cars. In effect, some might "discover" the Bolt in the process of learning about the Model 3. We have to remember that nearly all of America knows almost nothing, or cares very little about electric cars today. Many are down right hostile towards them."
You hit the nail on the head.


"On the other hand the Bolt offers greater utility, a lower purchase price, a conventional dashboard arrangement and likely a little bit better range."
Actually, based on Tesla's numbers, the base Model 3 is $35k and according to Elon needs nothing added to be a fantastic car. The bolt base is $37,495 per GM website.


"At least they started making the 2170's for the packs."
I think the production that started in the Gigafactory yesterday was for the Powerwall, not the cars. The mentioned that the production for the Model 3 batteries will be in Q2, which is on schedule for midsummer production.


"Realistically, I think it'll be more like the end of 2018 at the earliest; and for anyone who didn't already have a reservation & deposit in, and order a high-trim car, and live in California, it'll be even later than that."
This has been confirmed by Musk that they are a year out on existing orders from the time of production which should be 9 months or so. There's speculation that the high trim orders will get priority may not pan out as true as that was the plan before the reveal but we all know how that went.


Based on the previous 3 models that Tesla has made, I would be surprised if it does not continue the trend of impressive, compelling, addictive cars that cultivate a loyalty and customer satisfaction no other car company comes close to. You have to wonder though, at half the price of the Model S, what will they cut back on to reach that price point. Battery costs haven't been cut in half, nor the cost of raw materials. Most of the savings are probably coming from efficiencies in manufacturing as Elon has mentioned and a smaller GPM than the 25% the Model S earns. They have designed this car from the ground up to be economical to manufacture, unlike the Model X, and the factory has been tooled to be the machine behind the machine.
 

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Based on the previous 3 models that Tesla has made, I would be surprised if it does not continue the trend of impressive, compelling, addictive cars that cultivate a loyalty and customer satisfaction no other car company comes close to.
And delivered years after the target launch date?:D
 

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Much love for our man Musk, but his history of meeting promised production start dates and price targets is...suboptimal. That's why I see the Bolt as more of a predecessor than a competitor to the Model 3: lease a Bolt now and a 3 may be available for you at lease end. (I'm more interested in the Model Y myself.)

I'm also a little dubious that costs can be cut so much by manufacturing efficiencies alone. Existing automakers are extremely good at this already.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
We will likely be first in line for an EV SportWagen--so designers, get with it!
And I'll be right in line behind you!! I love wagons, particularly sport wagons, however America by and large has turned it's back on this body type. The SUV and the CUV is the new wagon and the people have spoken. So we're about as likely to see an electric sport wagon as we are to see an all electric Corvette, my other great desire.
 

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When Model 3 potential buyers cross-shop (and they will), two advantages the Bolt potentially has is a hatch (instead of a tiny trunk opening) and front wheel drive.

If they are priced and/or spec'ed similarly, theses may offset some of the cachet of the Tesla name.

For me, the trunk on the Model 3 takes it out of the running. Bolt delivered tomorrow.
 

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When Model 3 potential buyers cross-shop (and they will), two advantages the Bolt potentially has is a hatch (instead of a tiny trunk opening) and front wheel drive.
I don't care a lot about fwd, but I do agree the tiny trunk opening (required because of that idiotic giant glass roof) is a big disadvantage.

I cross shopped. Got a Model 3 reservation on Day 1. But in my heart, I know it will never be available at the promised price. Tesla can't make any money selling $100,000 cars. They would lose a fortune selling slightly smaller cars for $40,000. It will never happen.

So, I ordered a Bolt. It's much less cool. But on the plus side, it exists.
 

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When Model 3 potential buyers cross-shop (and they will), two advantages the Bolt potentially has is a hatch (instead of a tiny trunk opening) and front wheel drive.

If they are priced and/or spec'ed similarly, theses may offset some of the cachet of the Tesla name.

For me, the trunk on the Model 3 takes it out of the running. Bolt delivered tomorrow.
I have heard the lack of a hatchback as the death knell for some current EV owners I've spoken concerning the Model 3. The speculation is the Model Y could be to the Model X what the Model 3 is to the Model S. If they can pull off the Model 3 with it still having the Tesla cache, then that could quench that thirst.
Can't argue about Tesla's track record for delivering the promised schedule. Any prudent reservation holder shouldn't plan with any certainty the touted timeline. Most would rather have the car be built correctly and late than half-assed and on time. And then there's the Model X. ;)
 

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I don't care a lot about fwd, but I do agree the tiny trunk opening (required because of that idiotic giant glass roof) is a big disadvantage.

I cross shopped. Got a Model 3 reservation on Day 1. But in my heart, I know it will never be available at the promised price. Tesla can't make any money selling $100,000 cars. They would lose a fortune selling slightly smaller cars for $40,000. It will never happen.

So, I ordered a Bolt. It's much less cool. But on the plus side, it exists.
The Model 3 is like that super hot chick in high school all the guys drool over, but you can never actually get in position to even think about asking to the prom.

The Bolt is the the decent looking girl that lives next door that you can easily hang out with whenever and ask to the prom at any point in time. ;)

Meanwhile, the Prius is that ugly chick that sometimes gets someone to take pity on her and ask to the prom. Lol
 

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The Model 3 is like that super hot chick in high school all the guys drool over, but you can never actually get in position to even think about asking to the prom.

The Bolt is the the decent looking girl that lives next door that you can easily hang out with whenever and ask to the prom at any point in time. ;)

Meanwhile, the Prius is that ugly chick that sometimes gets someone to take pity on her and ask to the prom. Lol
Adding to that, now her hot cousin has arrived aka the Faraday FF91. She's a big bigger and a big older, but I won't turn her down :D

 
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