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Tesla Model 3- Help or hinder the Bolt?

46930 Views 265 Replies 58 Participants Last post by RacerX00, 25 d ago

DaV8or

Discussion Starter · Jan 5, 2017

In about a year from now, the Tesla Model 3 will likely be a reality and start to hit the streets in the hands of customers. I expect it to sell really, really well at least initially. The question here is, do you think the Model 3 will help Bolt sales, hurt Bolt sales, or really have no effect on Bolt sales?

On one hand, the Tesla holds a lot of cache. It's cool to own a Tesla, a Chevy not so much. The Model 3 is sexy looking and likely will be faster then the Bolt.

On the other hand the Bolt offers greater utility, a lower purchase price, a conventional dashboard arrangement and likely a little bit better range.

The Model 3 will likely be a short lived sensation with sales blowing the Bolt's numbers out of the water, but when it calms down and the short comings of the 3 are more well known, some consumers may start to cross shop.

On the other hand, the Model 3 may turn out to be a fantastic car in almost all respects so much so that only if you really need your BEV to haul stuff, there is no point to the Bolt.

There is also the argument that the Model 3 may increase interest in BEVs and get people to shop that otherwise would not with the the older Model S, LEAF, i3 and bevy of compliance cars. In effect, some might "discover" the Bolt in the process of learning about the Model 3. We have to remember that nearly all of America knows almost nothing, or cares very little about electric cars today. Many are down right hostile towards them.

Anyhoo, what do you all think?

241 - 260 of 266 Posts

redpoint5

· #241 · May 22, 2018 (Edited)

Tesla at 3,500 / week production.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-dual-motor-awd-specs-elon-musk-performance-version/

Share on TwitterShare on Facebook3:00:16 pmTom Randall Senior Reporter tsrandall
Tesla Nears 3,500/Week

It was a leaky Tuesday in Tesla production news. First, Electrek, the EV car blog, received a copy of an internal Tesla email in which CEO Elon Musk told employees, "It is looking quite likely that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones this week."

That translates to 3,500 cars a week, which would put Tesla roughly on track to reach its internal goal of 5k/week by the end of next month. That rate is also pretty consistent with Bloomberg's Model 3 tracker.

There was also news on Tuesday that Tesla will soon have its second factory shutdown of the quarter to make changes to the factory line. The plant stoppage is scheduled for May 26-31, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing two unidentified Tesla employees.

TimBolt

· #242 · May 22, 2018

redpoint5 said:
Tesla at 3,500 / week production.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-dual-motor-awd-specs-elon-musk-performance-version/

While it’s good to see that M3 production rates are steadily improving, Tesla still has shutdowns almost monthly, not a sign that all the glitches have been worked out.

The line was shut down for a week in mid-April, and will be shut for another week in late May, losing production for two full weeks out of the past eight.

Hopefully this next shutdown will fix whatever’s holding back M3 production from the 5k per week rate promised by the end of June. If the 3,500 per week rate is for real, and not another one-off surge, then getting to 5k certainly appears in reach.

Tesla also announced that the dual motor version of the M3 will be available starting in July, so this next shutdown may be related to that new variant launch. If you’ve been waiting to buy an $80k Model 3, now’s your chance to get in line.

shotel

· #243 · May 22, 2018

redpoint5 said:
Tesla at 3,500 / week production.

Checking the eBay TM3 reservation listings from time to time. The price for a "Ready to configure now, Tax Credit guaranteed, delivery in 3-6 weeks" Day one reservation has dropped below $1500, and as low as:

It's probably just me, but it just seems somethings fishy with the TM3 demand. The first 3 or 4 quarters after the initial TM3 announcement, Tesla was too happy to share it's tally of reservations. That last 450,000 number has been used for well over a year. Since then, total silence.

Tesla Bears calculate a near 50% Cancellation rate and Tesla will exhaust all of the remaining pre-orders sales in 10 Months. This does also compute to about 200,000 TM3 units sold. The theory is, that will be the time (Q2 2019) when the $35K TM3 will be available as Model 3 sales will be limited by demand rather than supply.

This scenario gives Tesla a few magnificent quarters of profit. Although afterwards, when selling base TM3's at a loss, it will be back to the money pit. Then model Y, probably on/near time as it uses the TM3 platform, in mid 2020. Will there be a comparable demand for the Y considering at it's launch, there will likely be 15 other new BEV's on the market, including a mature Jaguar Crossover BEV (w/Tax Credit)...and (my forecast) a moderate to severe economic recession in progress. Will there be an appetite for that many $55K to $80K BEV's in the next 24 Months?

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TimBolt

· #244 · May 22, 2018

shotel said:
Checking the eBay TM3 reservation listings from time to time. The price for a "Ready to configure now, Tax Credit guaranteed, delivery in 3-6 weeks" Day one reservation has dropped below $1500, and as low as:

It's probably just me, but it just seems somethings fishy with the TM3 demand. The first 3 or 4 quarters after the initial TM3 announcement, Tesla was too happy to share it's tally of reservations. That last 450,000 number has been used for well over a year. Since then, total silence.

Tesla Bears calculate a near 50% Cancellation rate and Tesla will exhaust all of the remaining pre-orders sales in 10 Months. This does also compute to about 200,000 TM3 units sold. The theory is, that will be the time (Q2 2019) when the $35K TM3 will be available as Model 3 sales will be limited by demand rather than supply.

This scenario gives Tesla a few magnificent quarters of profit. Although afterwards, when selling base TM3's at a loss, it will be back to the money pit. Then model Y, probably on/near time as it uses the TM3 platform, in mid 2020. Will there be a comparable demand for the Y considering at it's launch, there will likely be 15 other new BEV's on the market, including a mature Jaguar Crossover BEV (w/Tax Credit)...and (my forecast) a moderate to severe economic recession in progress. Will there be an appetite for that many $55K to $80K BEV's in the next 24 Months?

Not sure if the price for a reservation transfer on eBay is an accurate indicator of demand for the Model 3. Not everyone uses eBay or is comfortable attempting a reservation transfer with a third party looking to make a quick buck.

Tesla has been fairly opaque on the M3 reservations count and cancellation rate, but Tesla has indicated that new reservations continue to be added, keeping the overall number about the same.

Note that the dual motor M3 will supposedly be available in Q3, at a cost of nearly $80k fully loaded. While only a small percentage of buyers may opt for this model, it has to help with margins and profitability. Of course, if a fully loaded M3 just eats into Model S sales that defeats the hope of improving the bottom line.

Tesla appears to be aiming and marketing the M3 squarely at the BMW 3-Series, with similar pricing and performance. Although there are a lot of EVs coming to market, many of those are aiming at the less expensive Bolt / Leaf part of the market. I’ve never considered the M3 to be interested in selling a lot of $35k cars, and Elon has indicated recently that he’s also not interested in selling a lot of $35k cars, at least not anytime soon.

To me, the biggest unknown is the Model Y. Small crossovers are the hottest thing in the auto market, and a well designed and decently priced Model Y may quickly become Tesla’s best seller, if and when it gets produced, and provided Tesla is still around to produce it.

I don’t buy the most bearish predictions of Tesla’s imminent demise, but also can’t ignore investors who note Tesla’s shaky M3 launch and ongoing production delays, and that mountain of debt. I sure hope Elon can make it, it would be a shame if the first new major American automotive manufacturer in nearly a century fails, and it would be a real blow to the emerging EV market.

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Dimitrij

· #245 · May 22, 2018

TimBolt said:
I sure hope Elon can make it, it would be a shame if the first new major American automotive manufacturer in nearly a century fails, and it would be a real blow to the emerging EV market.

A shame it would be indeed, but the future of the EV market will depend almost entirely on the progress with the cost/size/weight and capabilities of the electrochemical storage and power generation devices, such as batteries, ultracapacitors, fuel cells and maybe something we haven't even heard about (yet).

I agree that everything "Elon" does somehow always end up in a spectacle, but the real wonders to behold are these:

https://phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hires/2016/56f112c426c19.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Fuel_Cell_Research_at_Adelphi_Lab_Center.jpg

Reactions: 1

Terry Hancock

· #246 · May 22, 2018

Consumer Reports downs Tesla 3 !!!

On May 22, 2018

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116835_consumer-reports-wont-recommend-tesla-model-3

GJETSON

· #247 · May 22, 2018

Dimitrij said:
I agree that everything "Elon" does somehow always end up in a spectacle, but the real wonders to behold are these:

https://phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hires/2016/56f112c426c19.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Fuel_Cell_Research_at_Adelphi_Lab_Center.jpg

Yup. I always check back to this guy's blog to see how close we are to mass market EVs.

http://thisweekinbatteries.blogspot.com/

He doesn't post often. Last I heard, he still doesn't even own a HEV, let along a full BEV.

Reactions: 1

TimBolt

· #248 · May 22, 2018 (Edited)

Dimitrij said:
A shame it would be indeed, but the future of the EV market will depend almost entirely on the progress with the cost/size/weight and capabilities of the electrochemical storage and power generation devices, such as batteries, ultracapacitors, fuel cells and maybe something we haven't even heard about (yet).

I agree that everything "Elon" does somehow always end up in a spectacle, but the real wonders to behold are these:

https://phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hires/2016/56f112c426c19.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Fuel_Cell_Research_at_Adelphi_Lab_Center.jpg

Pretty picture.

But, for mine own part, it was Greek to me.

A little context is always helpful, especially in a forum not dedicated to the physical sciences.

bijan

· #249 · May 22, 2018

TimBolt said:
...
Note that the dual motor M3 will supposedly be available in Q3, at a cost of nearly $80k fully loaded.
...

While technically true. It's that expensive only if you get the performance model with 0-60 acceleration of 3.5 seconds (this option costs about $20k). If you get the standard dual motor M3 it's only $5,000 more than the currently available one, about $60k (and 0-60 in 4.5 seconds).

max

· #250 · May 22, 2018

bijan said:
While technically true. It's that expensive only if you get the performance model with 0-60 acceleration of 3.5 seconds (this option costs about $20k). If you get the standard dual motor M3 it's only $5,000 more than the currently available one, about $60k (and 0-60 in 4.5 seconds).

This is something I just couldn't get past. I really wanted a M3, maybe still do - but I can't afford the car I want. I live in snowland - AWD is desireable vs. RWD and I wanted the premium features - so for me - the car was:

Base Price - $35,000
Destination & Delivery Fee - $1,200
Premium Upgrades - $5,000
Long Range Battery - $9,000
AWD - $5,000
Tax - $4,000 (est.)
Total = $59,200 - Black only, aero wheels

My Premier Bolt was $40K out the door with a color I love, every feature available - and I love the way it drives. I wish it had a few more features but I'm quite happy with it 95% of the time.

daveo4Bolt

· #251 · May 22, 2018

max said:
This is something I just couldn't get past. I really wanted a M3, maybe still do - but I can't afford the car I want. I live in snowland - AWD is desireable vs. RWD and I wanted the premium features - so for me - the car was:

Base Price - $35,000
Destination & Delivery Fee - $1,200
Premium Upgrades - $5,000
Long Range Battery - $9,000
AWD - $5,000
Tax - $4,000 (est.)
Total = $59,200 - Black only, aero wheels

My Premier Bolt was $40K out the door with a color I love, every feature available - and I love the way it drives. I wish it had a few more features but I'm quite happy with it 95% of the time.

it's a bit dis-enginous to compare a 230 mile EV to a 310 mile EV - although your over all point is mostly valid - you're still comparing a 236 mile range car to a 310 mile range car - what would a 310 mile Bolt cost with AWD.

Dyefrog

· #252 · May 22, 2018

max said:
This is something I just couldn't get past. I really wanted a M3, maybe still do - but I can't afford the car I want. I live in snowland - AWD is desireable vs. RWD and I wanted the premium features - so for me - the car was:

Base Price - $35,000
Destination & Delivery Fee - $1,200
Premium Upgrades - $5,000
Long Range Battery - $9,000
AWD - $5,000
Tax - $4,000 (est.)
Total = $59,200 - Black only, aero wheels

My Premier Bolt was $40K out the door with a color I love, every feature available - and I love the way it drives. I wish it had a few more features but I'm quite happy with it 95% of the time.

Features such as:
$9k for battery
$5k for premium upgrades
$5k for AWD
$19k + $40k=$59k + tax
whadayaknow

max

· #253 · May 22, 2018

daveo4Bolt said:
it's a bit dis-enginous to compare a 230 mile EV to a 310 mile EV - although your over all point is mostly valid - you're still comparing a 236 mile range car to a 310 mile range car - what would a 310 mile Bolt cost with AWD.

Not when that is the only 200+ mile alternative at the time of purchase.
I am not comparing the two cars as being equal - just comparing the overall cost and what you get for that cost.
Choice of color on a Bolt EV = $350, choice of color on a M3 = $1,000.
And who wouldn't want autopilot - another $5,000 - just a run away cost which places the currently shipping vehicle outside the "affordable" range (based on the $35K target both mfgs targeted)

Sean Nelson

· #254 · May 22, 2018

max said:
Base Price - $35,000
Destination & Delivery Fee - $1,200
Premium Upgrades - $5,000
Long Range Battery - $9,000
AWD - $5,000
Tax - $4,000 (est.)
Total = $59,200 - Black only, aero wheels

My Premier Bolt was $40K out the door...

The fair comparison for the M3 would be to subtract out the long range battery and AWD, since that would bring it a lot closer to what you're getting with the Bolt. That would bring the prices a lot closer.

Sure, if you want the added options you'll pay the higher price, but your comparison is kind of like complaining that a house with a tennis court and a breathtaking view costs more than one without.

max

· #255 · May 22, 2018 (Edited)

Sean Nelson said:
The fair comparison for the M3 would be to subtract out the long range battery and AWD, since that would bring it a lot closer to what you're getting with the Bolt. That would bring the prices a lot closer.

You cannot buy a M3 without the long range battery or premium features at this time.
So you cannot compare a $35k M3 to the bolt EV - it doesn't exist.

Sean Nelson said:
Sure, if you want the added options you'll pay the higher price, but your comparison is kind of like complaining that a house with a tennis court and a breathtaking view costs more than one without.

I realize these are two very different vehicles but they are the only two > 200 mile range options available - which draws an inherent comparison.
I really didn't expect these types of responses, I guess I will limit my commentary going forward.

Sean Nelson

· #256 · May 23, 2018

max said:
I really didn't expect these types of responses, I guess I will limit my commentary going forward.

Please don't - it certainly wasn't my intention to muzzle you. We all benefit from an exchange of information ideas.

Reactions: 4

TimBolt

· #257 · May 23, 2018

Musk has stated that no base $35k Model 3 cars will be delivered until some time in 2019, as it’s a money-loser.

If and when Tesla starts to actually deliver the affordable car that was promised over two years ago we can revisit how it stacks up versus the 2019 competition.

It’s simply a fact that the Bolt is absolutely, positively the very best 200+ mile EV that’s priced under $40k. It is truly peerless.

Reactions: 4

redpoint5

· #258 · May 23, 2018

TimBolt said:
Musk has stated that no base $35k Model 3 cars will be delivered until some time in 2019, as it’s a money-loser.

I've heard it mentioned that $40k is the cheapest option that reservation holders can get right now. If that's true, then it may be cheaper to buy a higher optioned $40k Tesla now and get the $7,500 credit than to wait for the lower optioned $35,000 car and miss the credit.

At least you can get a Tesla below $35k now if you factor in the credit.

Dyefrog

· #259 · May 23, 2018

redpoint5 said:
I've heard it mentioned that $40k is the cheapest option that reservation holders can get right now. If that's true, then it may be cheaper to buy a higher optioned $40k Tesla now and get the $7,500 credit than to wait for the lower optioned $35,000 car and miss the credit.

At least you can get a Tesla below $35k now if you factor in the credit.

You may have misunderstood. The least expensive Model 3 currently able to configure would be:
$35,000 base
9,000 long range battery
5,000 premium upgrade package
$49,000 total
destination fee is $925 even if you pick up at Freemont
document fee is $75
Which brings us to $50,000 minimum + TTL which in my county was $4,457.50
You are on the right track however in regards to configuring now vs. waiting till the base arrives assuming they cross the 200k threshold 7/1. This would qualify full credit till 1/19 but you may not see it depending on when you reserved till Q3/19 which would have lost $5,625 in available credit. Enough to pay for the premium upgrade.
That was my approach as I initially had budgeted for the base model but realizing I most likely would not get it in time for the full credit and when the specs were released on the LR battery, it was a no brainer, especially in the northeast. My total credits and rebates knocked off $9,500 of which the NYS rebate came right off the MSRP so I was taxed on the $2k less number. This more than covered the Title/License/Fees.
In the end, I'm assuming that the value will bump a little after the credits expire so it's more than just getting some "free" upgrades, it should also temper depreciation buying now.

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Enzeder

· #260 · May 23, 2018

max said:
I realize these are two very different vehicles but they are the only two > 200 mile range options available - which draws an inherent comparison.
I really didn't expect these types of responses, I guess I will limit my commentary going forward.

As Sean noted, please keep it up. I didn't see a wrong here, just two different takes. This was obviously a case of apples and oranges, but if Tesla ain't selling apples then it seems fair to me to make the comparison. I have a Motor Trend article from 2016 comparing the Bolt to a Model S 60 - because those were the only cars with 60 kWh batteries from different manufactures that you could buy at the time - even then I think the Bolt was in limited release, but you could at least walk into a dealer and drive away in one.

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