One of the few times we can definitively say Elon isn't exaggerating!Elon has stated for the record that "Tesla will live or die by the Model 3".
The only-game-in-town was always more Tesla rhetoric than reality.As I stated, the $35K TM3 is simply no more. That ship has sailed with 'production He||' economies of scale failing to materialize.
The Tesla *Only-game-in-town* window of opportunity has closed; the Monsters are here.
Those LEAF sales will pale in comparison to the 60 kWh Leaf with active thermal battery management.
Also, Porsche is requiring $2,500 earnest money. That's no small deposit, so those people are serious.Customers are evidently waiting in line to give Porsche hard deposits on the Taycan (my Vegas dealer says they have 61, the L.A. Porsche consortium says they have over 500)
Don't forget that BMW is about to release their 120 Ah i3, which provides another 200+ mile option in the semi-luxury arena where Tesla likes to play.Then there's BMW, VW, and others. All manufacturers that don't require scale production to 'get to profitability'. Tesla had the prospective customers lined up, but you cant scale out of a tent.
The Forbes article is a bit misleading because Tesla isn't even the global leader in electric vehicle sales now. Heck, it got beat out (barely) for the #2 spot. Good thing for them, the Model 3 should change that for 2018... maybe.It's hard to argue with a recent Forbes report (on a report) suggesting that Tesla will go from the #1 Global EV manufacturer, to the #7 or #8 in a mere 3 years or less.
If this comes to pass, it will make access to capital extremely expensive for Tesla.
So much to unpack here:
I couldn't find where Tesla stated that they were the only game in town, so I have to assume that you meant more shotel rhetoric.The only-game-in-town was always more Tesla rhetoric than reality.
While Nissan is doing very well with its new Leaf, 2018 Leaf sales are sure to pale in comparison to the 60 kWh Leaf. The point shotel was making is that Leaf sales will somehow destroy the Model 3 market. The point shotel might have missed is that the first half of 2019 will not see the updated battery tech in the Leaf, and by the time that tech arrives in the 2019 Leaf, Tesla will be shipping its base Model 3.Those LEAF sales will pale in comparison to the 60 kWh Leaf with active thermal battery management.
The Porsche article is one of those no-news-is-good-news WiFi journalistic pieces. The WiFi reporter is as clueless as I am when it comes to the number of people placing orders for the very exciting looking electric Porsche. What he seems to be saying is that Porsche took ten years to work out thermal regulation for the battery pack. 10 years? I would like to see the look on his face when he finds out that Porsche has been making cooling systems for cars since 1931.Also, Porsche is requiring $2,500 earnest money. That's no small deposit, so those people are serious.
I for one would welcome a 200+ mile i3, but BMW will have to go well beyond the i3 if they want to take on Tesla and any of its current offerings IMO. Being somewhat of a BMW fan, I am a little troubled when I review their public response to the EV world in terms of their current progress. My prediction,... US sales of the 3 Series will hurt! But BMW is no small player here, and I don't see them taking this sitting down. I am expecting a lot more... and I can't wait!Don't forget that BMW is about to release their 120 Ah i3, which provides another 200+ mile option in the semi-luxury arena where Tesla likes to play.
I am left wondering if the Forbes review wasn't referring more to the US market while mistakenly using the word "Global". When looking at specific markets, Tesla does well when compared to their luxury counterparts, and most of the cars BYD sells in china would never make it here. But it is a mute point IMO because whatever Tesla's ranking is as an auto manufacturer years from now has no bearing on the fact that things are looking better all the time for the EV consumer.The Forbes article is a bit misleading because Tesla isn't even the global leader in electric vehicle sales now. Heck, it got beat out (barely) for the #2 spot. Good thing for them, the Model 3 should change that for 2018... maybe.
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115398_chinas-byd-tops-global-electric-car-production-for-third-year-in-a-row
no it was reality if you wanted an EV that you can actually drive anywhere more than 70-80 miles at a time. Please list the number of 120 mile + pure EV's on the market today?T
the only-game-in-town was always more Tesla rhetoric than reality.
Cooling a dense Li-Ion battery is a totally different engineering problem than cooling an internal combustion engine, in the same sense that air cooling an internal combustion engine is a totally different problem than water cooling it. Expertise and experience in one area is no guarantee of competence in another....What he seems to be saying is that Porsche took ten years to work out thermal regulation for the battery pack. 10 years? I would like to see the look on his face when he finds out that Porsche has been making cooling systems for cars since 1931.
Thanks for the heads up Sean, my point was more the timeline, 10 years is a little hard to believe wouldn't you agree? The internet news guy seems to be saying that to avoid problems with the new electric offering, Porsche has spent the last 10 years engineering all the thermal regulation problems out to avoid the same mistakes that Tesla and Nissan made. To my knowledge, Tesla and Nissan have always used very different approaches to cooling the battery pack, and it didn't take 10 years for either of them to engineer the solution both are using. And I am almost certain it didn't take GM 10 years to come up with a cooling circuit for the Bolt's battery either, but I am counting on you to correct me if I am wrong.Cooling a dense Li-Ion battery is a totally different engineering problem than cooling an internal combustion engine, in the same sense that air cooling an internal combustion engine is a totally different problem than water cooling it. Expertise and experience in one area is no guarantee of competence in another.
GM has also been building cooling systems for cars for a good long time, but that didn't stop them from completely changing the cooling design they used for the Volt when it came time to produce the Bolt.
I've always seen GM and Tesla's strategies as contrasting, but one not necessarily being better than the other. GM is better at partnering with other companies than Tesla, so it's no surprise that they would rely on other businesses to build out a public fast charging network.Well, I still think Tesla's business model is correct, even though I own a Bolt. There are 40 Super Charger stalls in Baker, CA, and only two DCFC stations--which were installed a year late by EV Go. If non Tesla EV sales take off and DCFC stations don't rapidly climb to 6-10 stalls per location we're in trouble. Tesla is still the "complete" EV solution for those wishing to leave gas behind. This winter it will be fun to see how those two DCFC stalls in Baker handle everyone with a non-Tesla EV wanting to head to Vegas to gamble and the Mojave National Preserve to hike and camp.
If you're saying no-compromise, pure BEV, sure. I was referring more to the everything Tesla does is better. Every other EV is derivative or inferior.no it was reality if you wanted an EV that you can actually drive anywhere more than 70-80 miles at a time. Please list the number of 120 mile + pure EV's on the market today?
I can think of Bolt + Tesla
all others are less than 100 miles range.
I don't call that rhetoric.
Yup. I'm not disagreeing with you, which is why I've owned a Volt since 2012. Could never afford (or at least justify) buying a Tesla. Technically, I still can't.Boothe the Bolt and the Leaf are new comers - if you wanted a 200+ mile BEV before 2017 Tesla was the only game in town.
I can't speculate on what Porsche has been doing over the last 10 years. But part of engineering a cooling solution involves understanding how a Li-Ion battery generates heat and how it reacts to extremes of cold and hot conditions. How hot can you let the battery get before it starts to degrade unacceptably? What's "unacceptable"? That means spending a lot of time testing batteries in temperature extremes and under different charging and use scenarios....my point was more the timeline, 10 years is a little hard to believe wouldn't you agree? The internet news guy seems to be saying that to avoid problems with the new electric offering, Porsche has spent the last 10 years engineering all the thermal regulation problems out to avoid the same mistakes that Tesla and Nissan made. ... And I am almost certain it didn't take GM 10 years to come up with a cooling circuit for the Bolt's battery either, but I am counting on you to correct me if I am wrong.
I don't know... Look at where the hunches about anthropogenic climate change have gotten us... :nerd:Skepticism is healthy, but I'd never rule anything out on a hunch.
"Never rule anything out" doesn't mean "deny" or "be convinced of". It means "keep an open mind". I'm of the opinion that that's good advice for almost everyone.I don't know... Look at where the hunches about anthropogenic climate change have gotten us... :nerd:
Yes. Sort of trust but verify."Never rule anything out" doesn't mean "deny" or "be convinced of". It means "keep an open mind". I'm of the opinion that that's good advice for almost everyone.
While I'm pretty much persuaded of the reality and mechanisms of climate change, new evidence could still change my mind. But it's got to be credible evidence, the same kind that brought me to my current opinion on the subject.
120+:no it was reality if you wanted an EV that you can actually drive anywhere more than 70-80 miles at a time. Please list the number of 120 mile + pure EV's on the market today?
I can think of Bolt + Tesla
all others are less than 100 miles range.
I don't call that rhetoric.
