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Courtesy of Fully Charged, European cities are going to ban gas/diesel cars, China has already intimated they are doing the same.


What happens with change is that it's a slow, linear function for many years, then a tipping point occurs and suddenly it's here. I think we are seeing this with gas cars, and in 10 years will see electric as common as ICE. Here where I live in California you can't swing a cat without hitting a BEV it seems.
 

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Seems like a good time to invest in Lithium and the other raw components that make up the batteries and the companies that make the good ones.
 

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Courtesy of Fully Charged, European cities are going to ban gas/diesel cars, China has already intimated they are doing the same.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaC1qgXaRvE

What happens with change is that it's a slow, linear function for many years, then a tipping point occurs and suddenly it's here. I think we are seeing this with gas cars, and in 10 years will see electric as common as ICE. Here where I live in California you can't swing a cat without hitting a BEV it seems.
The parking lot here at work, and the company next door, seem like a Used EV car lot. Tons of Nissan Leafs, Volts, E-Golfs, Bolts, Spark EVs, Ford EVs/PHEVs, Teslas, Prius PHEVs, even a few Mercedes EVs.

While it looks like Europe and China are the path to ban gas/diesel vehicles, the implementation date of those bans are at least 15 years out, and they primarily ban sales of new gas/diesel vehicles. Which means existing vehicles can continue to operate (pollute) for some afterwards. We’re talking 30 or 40 years before ICE vehicles largely disappear from the landscape.
 
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The parking lot here at work, and the company next door, seem like a Used EV car lot. Tons of Nissan Leafs, Volts, E-Golfs, Bolts, Spark EVs, Ford EVs/PHEVs, Teslas, Prius PHEVs, even a few Mercedes EVs.

While it looks like Europe and China are the path to ban gas/diesel vehicles, the implementation date of those bans are at least 15 years out, and they primarily ban sales of new gas/diesel vehicles. Which means existing vehicles can continue to operate (pollute) for some afterwards. We’re talking 30 or 40 years before ICE vehicles largely disappear from the landscape.
Maybe. I just had this conversation with a EE buddy of mine whose a skeptic on most things. I showed him my car and was surprised to hear him say what I've been thinking, is that it will be slow adoption until some tipping point when suddenly everybody is on board. His example was TV screens, when big LCD's were very slow in coming and people were still getting large CRT's, but then one day, poof, everybody was on LCD. In our business we've seen this for years. With BEV's I think we're closer rather than farther to this point, I'd expect within 5 years.

One reason for it is not even consumers but producers. We engineering types who make the stuff follow the herd too, or rather our corporate overlords do (and the marketing team). Once those types see a majority on some new platform or technology they all rush over themselves not to be left behind.
 

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I definitely see EV adoption teaching a tipping point in the next 5 years, for sure. It’s certainly happening here in Silicon Valley. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the elimination of ICE vehicles will also reach that same tipping point at the same time. The manufacturing capacity doesn’t exist right now to start doing mass replacements, nor is the infrastructure ready. There’s also the economic cost. Average lifespan of a car on US roads is something like 10 years. The hybrid SUV I bought 2 years ago won’t be ripe for replacementment for another 8 years according to that metric.
 

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Yes, No, Maybe. If one runs the numbers, and if one can only own one vehicle for all uses, the most cost-effective is still the smaller diesel. No, I don't own one, but I can do the math.

And there's no math which will make the Bolt cost-effective during our ownership. The most cost-effective ride is still the old paid-for whatever already in the garage. Buying a new vehicle is a desire-driven purchase at a significant sunk cost. It's always more cost-effective to continue to repair and maintain the paid-for car; just not as much fun for most of us as the old ride gets ever less attractive cosmetically and psychically.

We bought the Bolt because it's ideal for our daily use and just a hoot to drive.

jack vines
 

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And there's no math which will make the Bolt cost-effective during our ownership. The most cost-effective ride is still the old paid-for whatever already in the garage. Buying a new vehicle is a desire-driven purchase at a significant sunk cost. It's always more cost-effective to continue to repair and maintain the paid-for car; just not as much fun for most of us as the old ride gets ever less attractive cosmetically and psychically.
I disagree with this. Before my bolt, I was driving a paid for 2006 Tahoe. It got 16mpg mixed, and it had to run premium (issue with the knock sensors). I drive almost 30,000 miles per year. My electricity is a meager 8c per kwh. I did the math, what I save in fuel costs covers my car payment entirely (after the federal discount).
 

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And there's no math which will make the Bolt cost-effective during our ownership.
I disagree with this.
How can one argue with the fact we don't drive enough miles-per-year to make the Bolt cost-effective during our ownership?

I drive almost 30,000 miles per year.
You are in the way-highest percentile of miles per year. The current average is 12,000. You did the math for your use and found a positive return; just don't disagree with my math.

jack vines
 

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Ambitious

I think that the Bolt and Model3 are bringing EV to the mainstream. However taking over ICE is a tall order. We bought the Bolt as a secondary car for my wife; camping, out of state trips, etc will still be done with my Subaru Outback. The lack of maintenance, lower operating costs, reliability, etc, etc, etc are all strong reasons to consider EV. I see 2 major shortcomings in seeing a mass adoption of EV

1 - America loves trucks. The Bolt is not a truck. Granted we are just a single hurricane or international conflict away from gas prices going up. We drove from Atlanta to Alabama for our Bolt. The dealer had 70%+ trucks. Mass adoption of EV go through Trucks.

2 - $$$. If the bolt was another GM ICE compact, selling for ~$22k-$24k that is a big jump to ~$40k. The Bolt is a great size. We were looking at the Bolt and the Subaru Crosstrek toward the end of our car shopping. And compared to the compact crossover the Bolt has the electric drivetrain going for it but the interior falls short in comparison.

We bought the Bolt and could justify the high price with breaking even in ~3-4 years compared to a Subaru XV. The only way we got to that break even was w/ the $7500 tax credit & ~1000+/yr savings on fuel. If/when the tax credit goes away, the numbers get to be pretty tough to justify. Overtime the cost of the battery needs to reach a point that without a $7500 tax break for an EV to compete with the ICE to really see a revolution.

I do not think that revolution is the Bolt, or Model3. Reaching the ~$35k /200mi EV is a milestone. Making a 200mi EV compete without government help against a ICE is really what I see as the next milestone.
 

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Well, here in rural CT I have never seen another Chevy Bolt on the road, although I did see one in NH a few months ago. Hopefully, electrics will invade CT before too long.
 

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1 - America loves trucks. The Bolt is not a truck. Granted we are just a single hurricane or international conflict away from gas prices going up. We drove from Atlanta to Alabama for our Bolt. The dealer had 70%+ trucks. Mass adoption of EV go through Trucks.
I think that even MORE than passenger cars, small and medium trucks are (usually) driven less than 150 miles per day, within 50 miles from home, and sleep in the driveway at night. What better scenario for an EV than an ET (not the alien form)! Lots of power and torque. No more 6-12 mpg gas fill-ups. Two motors, four wheel drive. 60 KWh battery, charged to full each night. 165 mile range (10% reserve). I am sure these are on the drawing boards and I do not see "Murica's" love for trucks as an impediment to EVolution.
 

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I think that even MORE than passenger cars, small and medium trucks are (usually) driven less than 150 miles per day, within 50 miles from home, and sleep in the driveway at night. What better scenario for an EV than an ET (not the alien form)! Lots of power and torque. No more 6-12 mpg gas fill-ups. Two motors, four wheel drive. 60 KWh battery, charged to full each night. 165 mile range (10% reserve). I am sure these are on the drawing boards and I do not see "Murica's" love for trucks as an impediment to EVolution.
I agree that most cars, trucks, SUVs are driven less than 150 miles a day; I would say 90% are less than 100 miles. I know that is true for myself and my wife. The thing is we have driven to Jacksonville FL, Charlotte NC and Raleigh NC in the past year. These are well outside the Bolt's range. Recharging (even with Level 3 is spotty at best in the SE). But I these trips are used with my Subaru Outback.

There are no electric trucks because right now the numbers do not work. a 60kwh battery in the Bolt would not get nearly 238miles. I would venture a guess at well under 100 (entering Leaf range anxiety). Larger batteries are more $$$. We would not have bought the Bolt if it had a 100 mile range.

The Bolt is our first electric. We never considered the Leaf or anything else. 200 miles puts the range anxiety to rest and is an ideal second car. The economics are becoming more favorable toward EV but is dependent on the $7500 credit. A continued reduction in the price of batteries (and to a lesser extent system efficiency) and/or a significant increase in gasoline would start to make a change.

There are a LOT of people interested in the Bolt but far fewer spending money for one. And sadly the American consumer is not a very bright one. Every once every ~5 years for the past 30+ years there is a spike in oil which drives gas up. During that time small car sales rise but once cheap gas is back so are big SUVs and the consumer thinks cheap oil is here to stay this time.
 

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But if your other "car" was a Ford F-150, or a Dodge Ram 1500, instead of a Subaru, would you have driven the truck to FL & NC? You CAN drive the Bolt there. Raleigh, Charlotte and Jacksonville are FILLED with DCFC and there are few stretches in NC, SC, & northern FL that are more than 200 miles from a DCFC. I'll bet a truck CAN be designed to get 165 miles on 60 kWh. Mind you, this IS a "commuter" truck, what most people who need the occasional truck bed drive ALL the time! There are no electric trucks right now, it is true, but my "prediction" is that they will be here within the next five years.
 

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But if your other "car" was a Ford F-150, or a Dodge Ram 1500, instead of a Subaru, would you have driven the truck to FL & NC? You CAN drive the Bolt there. Raleigh, Charlotte and Jacksonville are FILLED with DCFC and there are few stretches in NC, SC, & northern FL that are more than 200 miles from a DCFC. I'll bet a truck CAN be designed to get 165 miles on 60 kWh. Mind you, this IS a "commuter" truck, what most people who need the occasional truck bed drive ALL the time! There are no electric trucks right now, it is true, but my "prediction" is that they will be here within the next five years.
I am not the best to evaluate the mind the typical pickup truck buyer. I think they are unrefined, the ride is horrible at best, poor mpg, and most of the time the bed is empty. The number of heavy duty trucks around Atlanta (many look like they have never been an inch off the pavement) only make me wonder what the salesman said to insult their manhood that compelled them to buy it.

I think in 5 years electric trucks may be start to become available. $$$ aside, they would offer a large footprint to store batteries between the frame rails and instant torque. I think 60kWh may be little weak for range since with the exception of the Honda Ridgeline trucks are built off of a heavier chassis instead of a unibody frame.

Part of the reason we have to take the Subaru is we have a utility trailer with our camping gear (we are not roughing it). The Outback drops from 25-27mpg to 19-21mpg. So even IF we could tow all our gear I would place the range at 180mi with a tailwind under ideal conditions. Thanksgiving this year camping at the beach could potentially cut that further if it is cold out. I just don't see it today.

IF I owned a Dodge Ram (or even an Outback) and was making a trip to Charlotte, and was staying at a hotel we would consider the Bolt (we have talked about doing just that in the spring).

I am not sold that in 4 years when my Subaru is paid off, there will be an electric alternative that is similar is size that offered towing and could handle a road trip. Back to the original video, I agree the ICE is on its way out, but I see it more in the 10-15 year range.

The Bolt moves the chains and and starts to make a field goal an outside shot but by no means touchdown territory.
 

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I highly doubt the diesel is DEAD! It's the engine that runs this country and all of the shipping
industry world wide. No diesel, no trucks, no ships, no heavy industries. Not gonna happen :D
 

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I am not the best to evaluate the mind the typical pickup truck buyer. I think they are unrefined, the ride is horrible at best, poor mpg, and most of the time the bed is empty. The number of heavy duty trucks around Atlanta (many look like they have never been an inch off the pavement) only make me wonder what the salesman said to insult their manhood that compelled them to buy it.

I think in 5 years electric trucks may be start to become available. $$$ aside, they would offer a large footprint to store batteries between the frame rails and instant torque. I think 60kWh may be little weak for range since with the exception of the Honda Ridgeline trucks are built off of a heavier chassis instead of a unibody frame.

Part of the reason we have to take the Subaru is we have a utility trailer with our camping gear (we are not roughing it). The Outback drops from 25-27mpg to 19-21mpg. So even IF we could tow all our gear I would place the range at 180mi with a tailwind under ideal conditions. Thanksgiving this year camping at the beach could potentially cut that further if it is cold out. I just don't see it today.

IF I owned a Dodge Ram (or even an Outback) and was making a trip to Charlotte, and was staying at a hotel we would consider the Bolt (we have talked about doing just that in the spring).

I am not sold that in 4 years when my Subaru is paid off, there will be an electric alternative that is similar is size that offered towing and could handle a road trip. Back to the original video, I agree the ICE is on its way out, but I see it more in the 10-15 year range.

The Bolt moves the chains and and starts to make a field goal an outside shot but by no means touchdown territory.

Do tell us more about how unrefined we are. I like to see how simple minds think!


Not everyone needs a tiny little toy trailer to hitch to their soccermom mobile.

I drive my $75K DIESEL PICKUP to haul my toys and that includes items like my 2016 Jeep JKUR,
my 2017 RSR 1000 Turbo and if needed, any one of my eight motorcycles. I haul my Jeep
over the Sierra Mountains to get to NV, UT, and down to Death Valley.

No pipsqueak EV is gonna be capable of that for a LONG TIME. My Jeep weighs 6000 lbs
and the all steel trailer with a steel deck weighs 3000 lbs. Gear and tools brings that to
at least 10K lbs. My Dodge Ram 2500 Diesel will tow 18K lbs. My truck isn't like the
clowns you see that have them lifted with over sized tires as they try to compensate for
life's short comings in other aspects of their life. >:)

My truck is all stock and is made to work. It only leaves the driveway when it's loaded
or I need it for LONG TRIPS. Otherwise, I drive my EV Skate Board, A.K.A. The BOLT ;)

I'll bet you even need to take your Bolt or any other car - (truck LOL! Honda Ridgeline AKA- NOT A TRUCK) in for service/repairs because you can't do it yourself.
LOL! Talk about refinement :x
At least when I have an issue, I can handle it.
You're the refined yuppy that runs to me to get help!

PS: You might watch talking smack about people on an EV forum.
Were not all Momma's Boy's here.
 

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I highly doubt the diesel is DEAD! It's the engine that runs this country and all of the shipping
industry world wide. No diesel, no trucks, no ships, no heavy industries. Not gonna happen :D
Don't forget trains. Those electric motors don't run on batteries. Now there's a hybrid. Coming up on 100 years for that technology.
 

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Could bigger trucks (not the ford Ranger) go the route of the locomotive? Those large diesel engines in the locomotive do not drive the wheels of the train that "go round and round". Rather they run generators that fill batteries that run (big) electric motors that move those drive wheels with massive torque!! What kind of battery capability/storage does a locomotive have? Anybody out there know? The big highway truck does not need to pull 100 cars filled with coal, but could that concept work with the Ford 350 or Dodge Ram 2500? Just curious and letting my mind wander...
 
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