[evtinker]

The third quarter reports are in and as expected there was a slight drop in the replacement rate, but actually less than I expected. The push to resolve dealer owned stock has temporarily given a boost to the 2020-2022s, but progress was still made on the 2017-2019s. As of the end of September 2022, it looks like they are about 46% completed with all Bolts. Current numbers suggest all replacements could be completed by the end of 2023.

The reports are at:

https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2021/RCLQRT-21V560-1925.PDF

https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2021/RCLQRT-21V650-5368.PDF

 

[ARob]

 

[Openair]

2+ years? You don't say...

I guess the rabbit was never pulled from the hat as so many around here predicted.

 

[evtinker]

2+ years? You don't say...

I guess the rabbit was never pulled from the hat as so many around here predicted.

Yes, while a faster schedule certainly was technically possible, there certainly was no particular motivation be GM to make it happen. While one can make excuses about shipping issues and chip shortages and so forth, the reality is this simply wasn’t enough of a thorn in their side to make it a priority. I suppose if there had been additional fires, they might have pushed it harder to avoid the bad press, but for most of the general public this whole thing is just background noise. A small group with a problem that doesn’t matter to me, just another recall. Even on this forum it has dropped from being the most discussed issue to a rarely mentioned topic. Life goes on.

 

[GJETSON]

Some/all? may be coming back out.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/10/gm-releases-fix-for-chevy-bolt-ev-bolt-euv-high-voltage-connector-fastener-issue/

 

[ARob]

Let's see...we are about 1 year (4 quarters) into the replacement program and 46%.

In fact, total remedies by quarter are reflected in the following chart:

Thus, in the last quarter, nearly 10K replacements were completed. This appears to be a drop in replacements, but it is unclear if unsold inventory is reflected in these numbers. We know unsold inventory got priority this last quarter or two.

Given about 60K remain un-remedied, it is possible Q3-2023 will mark substantial completion of the program (assuming a pace of 20k/Qtr is resumed). That would put the program timeline at about 7 quarters.

If unsold inventory is reflected in the report, then there may be 6 more quarters until completion if the pace remains 10k/Qtr.

 

[enslay]

Some/all? may be coming back out.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/10/gm-releases-fix-for-chevy-bolt-ev-bolt-euv-high-voltage-connector-fastener-issue/

Well... at least our wheels aren't falling off.

Though I'm guessing the steering gear will come back and haunt us based on what I've seen on the forum about it.

 

[Openair]

Yes, while a faster schedule certainly was technically possible, there certainly was no particular motivation be GM to make it happen. While one can make excuses about shipping issues and chip shortages and so forth, the reality is this simply wasn’t enough of a thorn in their side to make it a priority. I suppose if there had been additional fires, they might have pushed it harder to avoid the bad press, but for most of the general public this whole thing is just background noise. A small group with a problem that doesn’t matter to me, just another recall. Even on this forum it has dropped from being the most discussed issue to a rarely mentioned topic. Life goes on.

Technically possible based on what? Chip shortage has not affected bolt or battery assembly. Even before the recall Lake Orion was one of the only assembly plants never idled for chips.

 

[evtinker]

Technically possible based on what? Chip shortage has not affected bolt or battery assembly. Even before the recall Lake Orion was one of the only assembly plants never idled for chips.

I am certain that if GM had wanted to throw enough resources (money, parts, staff, transport) at the problem, they could have completed this process in fairly short order. Perhaps something like “strike teams” of trained technicians and a truck full of batteries ready to deploy to dealerships and pay said dealers for the use of the space while all Bolt owners in the area were notified to schedule their replacement. Possible? Technically. Practical? Probably not. Affordable? Not according to the bean counters. Legal? I have no idea what dealership agreements look like. What would the public reaction have been? “Wow, GM is really stepping up” or “Wow, those new electric cars are really dangerous”. I suppose where we are now is probably all anyone could really expect.

 

[Openair]

I am certain that if GM had wanted to throw enough resources (money, parts, staff, transport) at the problem, they could have completed this process in fairly short order. Perhaps something like “strike teams” of trained technicians and a truck full of batteries ready to deploy to dealerships and pay said dealers for the use of the space while all Bolt owners in the area were notified to schedule their replacement. Possible? Technically. Practical? Probably not. Affordable? Not according to the bean counters. Legal? I have no idea what dealership agreements look like. What would the public reaction have been? “Wow, GM is really stepping up” or “Wow, those new electric cars are really dangerous”. I suppose where we are now is probably all anyone could really expect.

Most of that assumes batteries were not the bottleneck. Batteries are the bottleneck. It's also a lot of speculation while 2 to 2.5 years is math based on demonstrated and stated battery production ability since before the recall

 

[Boltsport]

Yes, while a faster schedule certainly was technically possible, there certainly was no particular motivation be GM to make it happen. While one can make excuses about shipping issues and chip shortages and so forth, the reality is this simply wasn’t enough of a thorn in their side to make it a priority. I suppose if there had been additional fires, they might have pushed it harder to avoid the bad press, but for most of the general public this whole thing is just background noise. A small group with a problem that doesn’t matter to me, just another recall. Even on this forum it has dropped from being the most discussed issue to a rarely mentioned topic. Life goes on.

It was totally background noise until GM stopped Bolt production. That raised a media flag. They could have handled it better.

 

[evtinker]

Most of that assumes batteries were not the bottleneck. Batteries are the bottleneck. It's also a lot of speculation while 2 to 2.5 years is math based on demonstrated and stated battery production ability since before the recall

And yet they built thousands of new Bolts using those batteries while customers waited on their batteries. Priorities.

 

[usedBolt]

Most of that assumes batteries were not the bottleneck. Batteries are the bottleneck. It's also a lot of speculation while 2 to 2.5 years is math based on demonstrated and stated battery production ability since before the recall

The other bottleneck was at the dealers, for several (possibly at the same time) reasons. There was staff: how many EV techs do they have, and what other work are they doing that has to be reassigned to free them up for the battery jobs? Many dealers have only one EV tech (if they don't have to share with somebody else). Then, there's space: my local dealer initially said they could only accept shipments of 3 or fewer batteries at a time due to lack of appropriate storage; later they were able to rearrange things to make room for 9 and stepped up the work accordingly. There's also working space: the special equipment is bigger than what's usually used for shop work, and may require rearranging work spaces or hit limits on what can be fit in, even if there's plenty of space for batteries to be stored and more than one tech to do the work. Finally, of course, there's money: the dealers got 4-5 hours allowance from GM for the work; while that was feasible, once they'd done enough to understand all the details, it wasn't generous, and the dealer probably could make more money doing ordinary work at retail rates.

 

[Huskerinaz]

Just got my 2017 Bolt battery replaced. Picked it up at 100% full charge. Range was 275. How do I bypass the limit to add more range. Charged to full today 210

 

[SpicyBolt]

And yet they built thousands of new Bolts using those batteries while customers waited on their batteries. Priorities.

It's debatable.

And aren't you now swapping into a new Bolt? I just did, into a loaded 2023 EUV Premier. How could we have had that opportunity if GM didn't start building Bolts again?

The bottom line is, for many of those who are inconvenienced waiting for a new pack, a very agreeable solution has been available for over a year now.

 

[evtinker]

But now we are back to the batteries not being the bottleneck. Weren't we just here? I was thinking on the other hand how many contracts and agreements is GM having to meet that kind of required them to keep building Bolts. As for my swap, it has been over a month and GM has yet to accept the order. I am beginning to think the reason my dealer was willing to accept hosting the swap is that he didn't have any allocations to loose. As for swaps in general. it really illogical that they can make a new Bolt, and ship it to the dealer, but they can't make a battery and ship it to the same dealer. Last I checked, my dealer was waiting on batteries, not an open bay and time for a technician or a Bolt that needed a battery so at least this dealer isn't the bottleneck. We all know we can debate this forever and we will never get a conclusive answer, we don't work in GM management.

 

[evtinker]

I think it is really a balancing game. GM can only get so many batteries, and so they must allocate a percentage to new production and a percentage to the recall. As much as the current owners would like to see the recall get absolute priority, other corporate commitments probably are forcing GM to produce at least some new Bolts anyway. Not all dealers are happy to turn their shop into a battery swapping party, so the flow through the dealers must be limited. Add in the current transportation issues, and the balancing act gets downright impossible. The only thing that is giving them any kind of cover is the current huge demand for cars. Customers have no choice but be patient, whether waiting for a new battery or waiting for a new Bolt, as their other options are virtually non-existent. If other automakers had lots full of new cars, GM would be in a world of hurt.

 

[ARob]

I am certain that if GM had wanted to throw enough resources (money, parts, staff, transport) at the problem, they could have completed this process in fairly short order. Perhaps something like “strike teams” of trained technicians and a truck full of batteries ready to deploy to dealerships and pay said dealers for the use of the space while all Bolt owners in the area were notified to schedule their replacement. Possible? Technically. Practical? Probably not. Affordable? Not according to the bean counters. Legal? I have no idea what dealership agreements look like. What would the public reaction have been? “Wow, GM is really stepping up” or “Wow, those new electric cars are really dangerous”. I suppose where we are now is probably all anyone could really expect.

I could be wrong, but it seems logical OEMs maintain regional warehouses or storage lots as part of their distribution networks. With Auto sales slowed by supply chain shortages, it would seem these locations would have spare capacity?

 

[ARob]

The other bottleneck was at the dealers, for several (possibly at the same time) reasons. There was staff: how many EV techs do they have, and what other work are they doing that has to be reassigned to free them up for the battery jobs? Many dealers have only one EV tech (if they don't have to share with somebody else). Then, there's space: my local dealer initially said they could only accept shipments of 3 or fewer batteries at a time due to lack of appropriate storage; later they were able to rearrange things to make room for 9 and stepped up the work accordingly. There's also working space: the special equipment is bigger than what's usually used for shop work, and may require rearranging work spaces or hit limits on what can be fit in, even if there's plenty of space for batteries to be stored and more than one tech to do the work. Finally, of course, there's money: the dealers got 4-5 hours allowance from GM for the work; while that was feasible, once they'd done enough to understand all the details, it wasn't generous, and the dealer probably could make more money doing ordinary work at retail rates.

It seems there are multiple facets to the challenge. As Jaryd has mentioned several times on Facebook, dealers are the bottleneck, not pack production/reconditioning. Somewhere along the way, I seem to recall seeing transport issues being a temporary bottleneck as well.

As I mention in the above stats, it's not clear to me if dealer and GM inventory is included in the population figures published with NHTSA. We saw about 20K replacements in the quarter right before they seemed to start making inventory eligible. By now, I would have to guess inventory is approaching completion and focus will return to customer owned. If they are able to resume a pace of 20K replacements per quarter, the remaining 60K will be resolve in 3 quarters. But, if the recent 10K pace is maintained, things could drag out for 6 quarters...another year and a half.

Unfortunately, the details are not being made available, so speculation runs all over the landscape. Bottom line, any speculation is just a SWAG until GM shares more info, or Jaryd shares more insight. By the sound of Jaryd's tone, he is growing tired of repeating the answer, so he apparently knows nothing new.

 

[SpicyBolt]

But now we are back to the batteries not being the bottleneck. Weren't we just here? I was thinking on the other hand how many contracts and agreements is GM having to meet that kind of required them to keep building Bolts. As for my swap, it has been over a month and GM has yet to accept the order. I am beginning to think the reason my dealer was willing to accept hosting the swap is that he didn't have any allocations to loose. As for swaps in general. it really illogical that they can make a new Bolt, and ship it to the dealer, but they can't make a battery and ship it to the same dealer. Last I checked, my dealer was waiting on batteries, not an open bay and time for a technician or a Bolt that needed a battery so at least this dealer isn't the bottleneck. We all know we can debate this forever and we will never get a conclusive answer, we don't work in GM management.

Shipping Bolts to dealers is via an established infrastructure that's been in place forever. Also a great deal more batteries have to be shipped to dealers than new Bolts. If they are almost half done, that's about 70,000 packs. GM has not produced and shipped anything near 70,000 Bolts to dealers in the same amount of time.

Also packs have to go in both directions, refurbished packs out to the dealers, and cores back to GM/LG for refurbishment. New Bolts only have to go in one direction, to the dealers.

Packs are ~1000 lbs each, and they don't have wheels and motors that allow them to be just driven onto trucks and trains like new Bolts do. And I believe they are considered hazardous too, so it's not just anyone who can truck then. And we've been in the middle of a trucker's shortage the whole while.

And I haven't even touched on all the potential dealer service department related delays that can occur. And of course every time, a pack replacement has to be scheduled with the customer at a time that works for them. And maybe a loaner has to be arranged etc. Some dealers are probably very efficient, others not so much. So many more moving parts to this whole process.

You are right, your dealer has no allocations to lose with a trade repurchase. Our dealer didn't lose an allocation either when we got our EUV last month. It's a freebie, no allocations lost.

I hope GM accepts your order soon.