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While serving as a great headline, I think Mary's comment needs qualifying. Is she referring to majority market share? Or a complete elimination of ICE vehicles? Or something in between?

I personally think it's a bit pessimistic if she's referring to buyer sentiment, but I'm not in a position to argue with someone like Mary regarding global production and supply chains.
 

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Just like new energy plants shifting from coal to natural gas to renewables, once we get to price parity, things will switch FAST! When renewables with total amortized cost of a brand new plant + profit = cheaper than just the cost of coal, it's a no brainer.

After price parity is reached, gasoline would have to be $1.20 - $1.50 a gallon to equal EV in 'fuel' cost (US avg 12 cents a kWh).

I would guess 20 years is for pretty much complete elimination of ICE vehicles. A brand new ICE sold today would likely be replaced within 12 years. A few very well kept up car, can probably last 20 years.
 

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May happen faster if legislation is passed like what was done with the incandescent light bulb. Now that there's an alternative, something could be made law. Then the car companies would be thankful they had an electric vehicle program.
 

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20 years was my prediction to reach 50% new vehicle sales. That's also because plug-in hybrids will become very popular, reducing the need to go 100% BEV. It's really not that long of a timeframe representing just 4 model generations. How much better did the Prius get in 4 generations? They are down to marketing the car as "cool" and bumping up the MPG by an insignificant amount. The law of diminishing returns.

2 things could speed EV sales:

1. Feel-good political policy more drastic than the already mind-blowing $7,500+ tax advantage
2. A breakthrough in chemistry

Politics seems more likely to me because manipulating mindless herds is easier than manipulating chemical compounds into doing the things we want.
 

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Well, Mary might be saying 20 years, but I’d bet they’re gonna push it has hard as they can because it’s The Holy Grail of automobile manufacturing ... getting rid of all those potentially problematic parts buried deep inside complicated engines and transmissions! The sooner they break free of that, the sooner they drastically reduce (if not eliminate) all those expensive recalls and litigation, and keep all that money right in their pockets!

Can’t wait to see what the diehards end up paying for the last of the ICE vehicles.
 

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Getting rid of the gas guzzlers and replacing them with EVs is the " RIGHT " thing to do, but, not necessarily the " PROFITABLE " thing.
All of those " Potentially Problematic Parts " is what keeps them in business. You used to be able to sit on the fender with your feet
on the valve cover and work on your car. Today, Joe Average doesn't have a clue so it goes to the dealership. Take a look at what
is filling their service driveways and lots. With ICE vehicles, they have a built in clientele. With EVs, Its"
" Here are your keys ( fobs ). If you crash it, we can fix it. Have a nice life. "
 

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Well, Mary might be saying 20 years, but I’d bet they’re gonna push it has hard as they can because it’s The Holy Grail of automobile manufacturing ... getting rid of all those potentially problematic parts buried deep inside complicated engines and transmissions!
That's an argument in favor of not changing. The big manufacturers have already finely tuned their process of making these extremely complex parts, which is why there hasn't been a successful major automobile manufacturer for the last 100 years... until Tesla.

The holy grail from a business standpoint is to drive demand for the thing you're already proficient to deliver, with the highest profit margins possible. There's no profit margin in EVs currently, so they aren't a priority.
 

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Well, Mary might be saying 20 years, but I’d bet they’re gonna push it has hard as they can because it’s The Holy Grail of automobile manufacturing ... getting rid of all those potentially problematic parts buried deep inside complicated engines and transmissions! The sooner they break free of that, the sooner they drastically reduce (if not eliminate) all those expensive recalls and litigation, and keep all that money right in their pockets!

Can’t wait to see what the diehards end up paying for the last of the ICE vehicles.
Right, her comments could very well be a masterful "Rope-a-Dope" maneuver. Lull other auto makers into thinking they have time, then flood the market with strong BEVs that tip the scales in GM's direction and leave those duped into waiting a bit longer holding the ICE bag.

The thing is, predictions of market behavior are tricky. Buyers may wake up one day and realize how much more economical and convenient BEV are and the market changes direction on a dime. Stimulus for change can come from a variety of unforeseen forces. COVID has helped people see the benefits of clean air, it could be one such stimulus. An oil price spike could sway a lot of buyers. Continued stories of success from existing BEV buyers might contribute. A variety of brand and model choices might sway buyers. Battery breakthroughs could do it.

When the stars line up, the change will be sweeping. At the rate of tech advances, 20 years seems pessimistic.
 

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I try to stay logical and data driven in regard my thoughts on EV use for personal transportation vehicles. It's not easy.
I "suspect" that EVs will reach a tipping point at some period shorter than the projections made by the GM head. My crystal ball ran out of batteries, so I won't throw a year up when that might happen.

My experience with the Bolt has demonstrated to both my wife and I that the EV is the superior method for moving us around (and you guys know all the reasons for this, so I won't belabor the issue). We will never purchase another ICE vehicle. At the moment the count is; 1-EV and 3-ICE autos. In the Fall it will be 2 and 2.

Once we move from being a two household family to a single residence, we will only have EVs. This won't change the world of personal transportation, but our friends will be driving around in our EVs, they'll see what the advantages are, and they will decide for themselves what type of autos they might wish to buy in the future.

That's how things change.

Rich
 

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I'm playing tennis last week and knew a couple of the guys had solar at their house and wanted to ask them some questions about their system since I'm thinking of putting in a system. The third guy says he also has solar. So here I am, the only guy with an electric car, and the other three have solar. I'm like, how many people have solar and don't drive electric? The number must be huge. These people have got to wake up some day and think, hey, I could be driving off sunshine. So I remarked to these guys that I'm the only one with an electric car and the only one that doesn't have solar. Then one of the guys says he's getting a hummer when it comes out. Yeah, all three of these guys show up to the courts driving pickups. There's a huge market out there that's untapped.
 

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~17 million vehicles are sold per year in the US. 50% would be 8.5 million. 20 years sounds about right. Even if she's 10 years too pessimistic though, we are a long, long way from having a majority of the 270+ million registered vehicles on the road be EVs.
 

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I would guess 20 years is for pretty much complete elimination of ICE vehicles. A brand new ICE sold today would likely be replaced within 12 years. A few very well kept up car, can probably last 20 years.
More than a few; the average age of vehicles on the US road today is 11.8 years. That means for each of the 16 million new cars sold each year, there are 16 million cars 24 years old still operating.

jack vines
 

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That's an argument in favor of not changing. The big manufacturers have already finely tuned their process of making these extremely complex parts, which is why there hasn't been a successful major automobile manufacturer for the last 100 years... until Tesla.

The holy grail from a business standpoint is to drive demand for the thing you're already proficient to deliver, with the highest profit margins possible. There's no profit margin in EVs currently, so they aren't a priority.
If they're so "finely tuned", why we do we keep seeing the same failures over and over again? Why do pistons crack? Why do piston rings fail? Why do transmission wave plates crack? Exhaust manifolds crack? These are all parts automobile manufacturers have been making for decades!

Still gotta spec and fabricate all those parts. Then you bury a bad one in a transmission or engine and 100,000 units later ... ah sh#t (!!) ... we gotta fix all these cars under warranty!

Too complicated. Who needs that headache if there's a better way?

And yeah, there's little-to-no profit margin in EVs right now ... but it's still early. They're working on it. Once they break through that glass ceiling, there's no looking back. Automobiles will be sold like appliances.. Goodbye and good riddance to the dealerships. Some might miss the ICE vehicles, but nobody will miss the dealerships ... that's for sure.
 

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Goodbye and good riddance to the dealerships. Some might miss the ICE vehicles, but nobody will miss the dealerships ... that's for sure.
I see consolidation among dealers, not elimination. There are still benefits of having mechanics with specific knowledge of the vehicles they sell, there is money in arranging financing, extended warranties, and used cars\trade-ins. It is nice to be able to go to a dealer, test drive and walk away on the same day with a shiny new EV. Online ordering and waiting weeks will never 100% replace the buying experience.
 

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"GM had previously said it planned to launch a fully driverless taxi service before the end of 2019 but was later forced to postpone the rollout of the technology indefinitely due to engineering setbacks."

Change is harder than it seems. 20 years from now I may or may not care. It will be close.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Twenty years from now, I most likely wouldn't know if I cared. In the long run, we're all dead.

jack vines
He!!,I just turned 69. I may not even be here to make the last payment!😜 So then my sister will join the EV movement.
 

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When we have batteries that provide equal or better range to ICE vehicles, and more and more people experience the totally different driving experience of an EV, I think things are going to shift quickly. In most circumstances I don't see any advantage to an ICE over an EV if range wasn't an issue. I think the current ABYSMAL situation of inoperative, finicky, non-intuitive EV roadside chargers will change eventually.
 
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