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Very interesting indeed. I scanned it quickly and did not see, mention of the importance of the current targeted CARB ZEV incentives to manufacturer. Those would be current year profit boosters over and above the UBS's EBIT or contribution margin estimates ?


See for example the following recent article quoting Elon Musk about the favorable impact the CARB program has on GM’s Bolt:
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-talks-carb-zev-credits/
 

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Very interesting indeed. I scanned it quickly and did not see, mention of the importance of the current targeted CARB ZEV incentives to manufacturer. Those would be current year profit boosters over and above the UBS's EBIT or contribution margin estimates ?


See for example the following recent article quoting Elon Musk about the favorable impact the CARB program has on GM’s Bolt:
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-talks-carb-zev-credits/
The problem with Musk's claim on GM getting the full value of Bolt credits is that they are in the same boat as Tesla - they have more than they need and the only value is what other manufacturers will pay on the open market (they have not purchased any since 2014 and are building up their balance).

The difference is that Tesla has no need for ANY credits and their only value is what the market will bear. GM does indeed need credits, but they were producing more than they needed prior to the introduction of the Bolt.

I was at a talk with some CARB board members about a year and a half ago. When they originally designed the ZEV Credit program (they were originally g/mile NMOG or grams/mile Non-Methane Organic Gases), they did not count on a company like Tesla existing that would produce a source of credits into the marketplace. At that time, the number of ZEV credits already in existence would cover all manufacturers thru 2025. This was before the 2016 rewrite and rule changes. We will likely see more changes to help meet the intent that all manufacturers produce ZEV vehicles of their own to sell. I expect the open market value of ZEV credits to continue to decline - supply and demand at play (with a little help from CARB on how the supply is created).

The Tesla battery swap video (2103?) earned Tesla an extra credits because of the way CARB rules were written at that time. Just demonstrating that they could fully recharge quickly has earned Tesla hundreds of millions of dollars. Nothing in the rules stated that they actually had to do it - only demonstrate the capability.

http://dailykanban.com/2015/06/tesla-battery-swap-carbs-bridge-to-nowhere/
 

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Pretty comprehensive report on a tear down of the Bolt with some nice illustrations and tables of cost comparisons to Model 3.
https://www.scribd.com/document/348864125/Margin-Report-UBS-Model-3-Bolt-EVV


The above link worked the other day. But now that address on scribd.com says "Oops, page not found". Anyone know a good address for that file ? I want to go back and read it in detail.


There's been some editorial comment about it. Inside EV's mentioned that UBS's estimates seem to assume Tesla's (optimistic) model 3 volume projections.
 

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The above link worked the other day. But now that address on scribd.com says "Oops, page not found". Anyone know a good address for that file ? I want to go back and read it in detail.


There's been some editorial comment about it. Inside EV's mentioned that UBS's estimates seem to assume Tesla's (optimistic) model 3 volume projections.
I see the link is broken as well. Fortunately I saved the pdf.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/t120tzvtmgrv2dy/348864125-Margin-Report-UBS-Model-3-Bolt-EVV.pdf?dl=0
 
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