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Considering how many there are throughout the country, will they turn into DC supercharge stations? Go out of business?
 

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They are already going out of business.

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2016/06/why_america_s_gas_stations_are_running_out_of_time.html

The number of stations has fallen 25% in the last 20 years. It was always a crappy, carcinogenic, low margin business, with a high 'risk of ruin'.

Where land is valuable, it will be repurposed.

As for just changing them to DCFC stops....I doubt that will happen much. How many gas stations are built on the former location of hay sellers? Do we care?

If I charge 90% of my kWh at home, and fast charging takes 10X longer than pumping gas (30 mins versus 3), than in a future EV-topia, we will need roughly as many DCFCs as we currently have gas pumps. But if I am there for 3 minutes, I just want a convenience store, and if I am there 30 I want a fast casual restaurant (and a convenience store) or better yet a MALL.

So, gas stations at rest areas with restaurants....those rest areas will get DCFC stalls in some number. Malls and strip malls near interstates....gimme some stalls there too.

The neighborhood gas station in the burbs and exurbs....tumbleweed time!
 

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Gas stations will be around for a long, long time.

Despite the breathless press reports, the death of the internal combustion engine has been greatly exaggerated.
 

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Gas stations will be around for a long, long time.

Despite the breathless press reports, the death of the internal combustion engine has been greatly exaggerated.
I also agree, ICE vehicles are not going anywhere anytime soon. EV sales are up, but they still only account for something like 2% of vehicle sales (the last stat that I read at any rate). There are too many other factors at play that will keep them around, not least of which are poor people like me who cannot afford to buy a new EV. When there is a mass market EV for sale under $20K that has a range of 300+ miles, I think we'll start seeing a bigger change in sales figures. Until then, while they are on the rise, EVs are still a niche market vehicle for early adopters.
 

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most technologies take off approximately 15 to 20 years from when first introduced. Legislation probably will be passed like it was for the incandescent bulb and the ICE will be relegated to novelty. Due to simplicity and part count alone, EVs will eventually be cheaper than the ICE based vehicles they will replace. It will be fun to watch. I don't plan to own another new car until they try to take my driver's license away. Then I'll buy one of those new fangled electric self driving cars so I won't lose my mobility.

Seen lots of gas stations either disappear, converted to another business, or even abandoned. Take a drive down old route 66 to see what's left after the highway system went in.
 

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Its simple. When battery EVs are better and cheaper and available in a range of styles, then ICE vehicles will disappear fast in the vast proportion of applications.

This transition will be accelerated by their being banned in most urban locations worldwide around the same time.

The simplicity of BEVs and the learning curve for Li-ion batteries both suggest this will come to pass. The only question is WHEN.

IOW, I think Tony Seba is a little optimistic, b/c it takes time to engineer stuff and build it out (about 5 years).

I guess that would be round about 2027. >:)
 

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This assumes driver-owned vehicles. If "your" next car is a dealership-owned autonomous electric shuttle that arrives at your door on demand, the transition may be much quicker. There may be some ICEs still skulking in your neighbors' garages, but only because the resale value has dropped to zip.
 

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This assumes driver-owned vehicles. If "your" next car is a dealership-owned autonomous electric shuttle that arrives at your door on demand, the transition may be much quicker. There may be some ICEs still skulking in your neighbors' garages, but only because the resale value has dropped to zip.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for truly autonomous vehicles to become commonplace. Despite all the hype there are still very significant issues with developing an autonomous vehicle that can handle all weather and road conditions.

The biggest risk is pushing out these cars before they’re ready, but I’m afraid that the race to be first may make that inevitable. The low speed shuttle currently being tested in Las Vegas was in an accident because it didn’t know enough to back up to avoid being struck by a truck that was also backing up. While this minor fender bender was inconsequential, it revealed the limitations of software that simply wasn’t capable of handling the unexpected, and the unexpected happens all the time out on the road.

I’m sure that the bugs will eventually be worked out, my best guess is that we’re still at least a decade or more away from getting the software right, and maybe longer before that gets integrated into an affordable 100% independent all weather all condition vehicle.
 

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This is like the joke about the blind man and the elephant. Californians have one view of the speed of EV adoption. The rest of us think it's a tail. :)
 

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yep and so will humans! BTW climate change is fake news, tell all your friends too.

100 years right!?

https://insideevs.com/china-ban-553-gas-cars-starting-tomorrow/

just one tiny snippet from the worls single largest market.
That's also China which has a government that is A) committed to cleaning up their environment and B) can simply tell people that they cannot drive their cars tomorrow and get away with it. Try doing that same thing here in the U.S. (not that we have any desire to do it anyway) and see how it goes ;) The rest of the world is moving forward with it while the U.S. is still saying that we need to expand coal.....
 

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That's also China which has a government that is A) committed to cleaning up their environment and B) can simply tell people that they cannot drive their cars tomorrow and get away with it. Try doing that same thing here in the U.S. (not that we have any desire to do it anyway) and see how it goes ;) The rest of the world is moving forward with it while the U.S. is still saying that we need to expand coal.....
I forgot u guys have the second ammendment down there! and clean coal! 0:)

Seriously though when the worlds largest population rules it so the manufacturers will have to follow. Just think of Cali CARB in Godzilla Size, (oops wrong country :) )
 

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Agree. ICE vehicles will not be “phased out” for 100 years.
OK I found the videos. I love these guys, they have 3 channels and will truly teach you about the chinese and their culture like nothing else.

The key is how many global manufactures sell cars into China and what their new laws are doing to influence the entire auto industry. I believe more than tesla is. Make sure to watch the whole video including the byd electric car part.

 

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That's also China which has a government that is A) committed to cleaning up their environment and B) can simply tell people that they cannot drive their cars tomorrow and get away with it. Try doing that same thing here in the U.S. (not that we have any desire to do it anyway) and see how it goes ;) The rest of the world is moving forward with it while the U.S. is still saying that we need to expand coal.....
I think China will be at the forefront of autonomous (nonowner) vehicles. Their cities are largely vertical and although many can afford cars, there aren't enough roads and parking to accommodate them now. Since privately owned cars sit about 95% of the time, I think there will be a huge incentive to have an Uber type system using autonomous cars. Much of the US is suburban and it is less critical there. San Francisco on the other hand is such a pain to drive and park in now, it is likely to be any early adopter.:nerd:
 

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Revisiting the OP's question, the AV wave will overwhelm owner-operated EVs. No need for the passenger to worry about charging the battery. An AV will do it autonomously, ala the Roomba. New and used car dealerships plus car rental lots will convert to AV-EV service providers. Gas stations on the other hand will transition to coffee/sandwich purveyors. Visualize a two store strip with a Dunkin Donuts drive thru on one side and a Panera on the other. Travelers will still need their Starbucks fix!
 

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That's also China which has a government that is A) committed to cleaning up their environment and B) can simply tell people that they cannot drive their cars tomorrow and get away with it. Try doing that same thing here in the U.S. (not that we have any desire to do it anyway) and see how it goes ;) The rest of the world is moving forward with it while the U.S. is still saying that we need to expand coal.....
China does have more motivation than the US to clean up their air:



The People's Republic of China isn't imposing laws out of their superior benevolence. While clean air might be a consideration for the new restrictions, it's almost certainly not the primary reason.

US coal production has been in decline for the past decade, and all indications are that it will continue to decline. No need to slander the US, or claim a superior moral position by the rest of the world.



I forgot u guys have the second ammendment down there! and clean coal! 0:)

Seriously though when the worlds largest population rules it so the manufacturers will have to follow. Just think of Cali CARB in Godzilla Size, (oops wrong country :) )
China is capable of producing high quality products (most of quality US products are produced in China). Since they ignore IP laws, they will steal the innovation the rest of the world has developed and produce superior products at lower cost. I wouldn't be surprised to see Chinese vehicles in the States within the decade.
 

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yep and so will humans! BTW climate change is fake news, tell all your friends too.

100 years right!?

https://insideevs.com/china-ban-553-gas-cars-starting-tomorrow/

just one tiny snippet from the worls single largest market.
Not sure about 100 years, but most estimates I’ve seen suggest that EVs will have cost parity with ICE cars in about a decade. It will probably take another decade before EVs reach a majority of sales, barring any government ICE bans. Since the average car lasts at least a decade, and some at least twice that, there will still be plenty of ICE cars on the road in 30 or 40 years.

Remember, not everyone wants to give up their cars for shared autonomous vehicles, despite all the press hype that this is inevitable.

Also, don’t count out fuel cell vehicles, the dark horse in EV development. A fuel cell car doesn’t pollute, has a decent range, and can be refueled in a couple of minutes. Fuel cell development is pretty much where EV development was about 10 years ago, and they don’t get much press, but there’s a lot to like about the technology.
 
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