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Discussion Starter #1
Tesla started offering batteries bigger than 60 kWh in 2012. It seems a fair question.
 

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Good question. The new VW line of EV's will offer batteries in the 80 or so kWh range when they're introduced here in 2020 (maybe 2021). And, they will charge at 150kW up to 80% of full battery. GM will have to up their game if they're going to compete.
In all fairness, VW will also offer smaller batteries so that the car can be used for around town driving. That means you would have to have an ICE backup for longer trips, or rent one. I don't want to do that. I want one car that will do both around town and long trips.
 

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Well if you use 4mi/kWh as a benchmark an 80kWh battery would give us 320mi range. Breaking the 300mi range barrier my be the tipping point to get some EV fence-sitters into the game.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Good question. The new VW line of EV's will offer batteries in the 80 or so kWh range when they're introduced here in 2020 (maybe 2021). And, they will charge at 150kW up to 80% of full battery. GM will have to up their game if they're going to compete.
In all fairness, VW will also offer smaller batteries so that the car can be used for around town driving. That means you would have to have an ICE backup for longer trips, or rent one. I don't want to do that. I want one car that will do both around town and long trips.
As to personal wants - yes, exactly,I've done the thing with a lame short-range BEV and a gasoline car, combined, and I'm not going back to that. I want one car with a no-doubt-about-it huge range and excellent access to reliable (to a high number of 9s) public quick charging. (At the moment, around here, the word reliable would harm the case for any CCS or CHAdeMO dependent vehicles).
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Well if you use 4mi/kWh as a benchmark an 80kWh battery would give us 320mi range. Breaking the 300mi range barrier my be the tipping point to get some EV fence-sitters into the game.
It would also help to address the needs and concerns of potential rural buyers and the dealers who serve them.
 

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As to personal wants - yes, exactly,I've done the thing with a lame short-range BEV and a gasoline car, combined, and I'm not going back to that. I want one car with a no-doubt-about-it huge range and excellent access to reliable (to a high number of 9s) public quick charging. (At the moment, around here, the word reliable would harm the case for any CCS or CHAdeMO dependent vehicles).
So you'll be buying a LR Model Y then? Anybody who thinks there will be an option as good as the Model Y/ Supercharger network, for the same money, in the next five years, is deluding themselves.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
So you'll be buying a LR Model Y then? Anybody who thinks there will be an option as good as the Model Y/ Supercharger network, for the same money, in the next five years, is deluding themselves.
Each of us has a budget and I've paid what is for me a very steep price to learn my lessons and still be driving anything resembling a plug-in vehicle. As well, each of us has different reasons for being on these boards, some of which have nothing to do with our buying decisions. So, I'm not able to take much that is useful from your comment, but still, to take the opportunity to write out where I'm at with my own transportation equation:

With a couple of exceptions, I have tended toward cheap <$5k vehicles, and I generally own the pink slip. I don't agree with some folks who want to say that depreciation on a new vehicle is somehow not real money. Within my budget, I may have to wait another few years to make a move (if I do so at all... for the moment I do not have to since I have the pink slip on a working Volt).

With that said, I'd love to get a proper 200+ EPA mile BEV with transparent battery replacement terms, both in and out of warranty. Very likely I'll stretch my usual budget a bit higher to trade my Volt for a used Bolt or used Model S at some point in the next few months or years, and motivated by a concern that at some point gasoline may go to $5 or $10 per gallon. I don't know that it will, but if it does, I don't want to be caught with a partially gasoline powered vehicle. There are major pros and cons to both Bolt and Model S, but if I want a used and good-quality liquid-cooled BEV, with at least (bare minimum) 60 kWh, and likely to come down below $20k in the next year or two, then they are my only two choices..... there is nothing else.

None of this is set in stone. I might get an impulse to throw caution to the wind and buy one of the less expensive newer BEVS. But this is my present thinking.

When it comes to watching and commenting on the new car markets, one way in which this relates in a strong way to my used vehicle buying approach is that I can't begin to consider buying a vehicle until it has been introduced to the market as new, and then I have to wait for a few years. I suspect there are so many others in a similar boat. So, it is really frustrating to see GM taking such a huge amount of time between Bolt introduction and introduction of a bigger battery BEV. Once they start to offer it, I can at least consider getting it, just as I watched Chevy introduce the Volt in 2011 and finally in 2017 I decided to get a used one.
 

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Each of us has a budget and I've paid what is for me a very steep price to learn my lessons and still be driving anything resembling a plug-in vehicle. As well, each of us has different reasons for being on these boards, some of which have nothing to do with our buying decisions. So, I'm not able to take much that is useful from your comment, but still, to take the opportunity to write out where I'm at with my own transportation equation:
We bought the Bolt outright because it was the right car for our needs, and price range. We have no need of a higher capacity battery. Would it be nice to have more range? Sure. But you will pay for it.

The first longer range "affordable" used car will be a used Model 3, followed by a used Model Y. Nobody will beat their price on an over 250 mile range car for a long time. And by the time they do, the Teslas will be available used.
 

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I was pleasantly surprised that GM came out with the car we wanted, at a price we could just afford, before Tesla did. GM isn't making money on them, but they can afford to lose on the handful they are interested in selling, until battery prices come down. They could surprise me again, and come out with a car comparable in price, and range to the LR Model Y. But they still have the problem of no control over the lousy CCS charging infrastructure.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
We bought the Bolt outright because it was the right car for our needs, and price range. We have no need of a higher capacity battery. Would it be nice to have more range? Sure. But you will pay for it.

The first longer range "affordable" used car will be a used Model 3, followed by a used Model Y. Nobody will beat their price on an over 250 mile range car for a long time. And by the time they do, the Teslas will be available used.
I have held out hope that the first "affordable" longer range (more than 60 kWh) used car will be a used Model S, though that's looking iffy, as the prices are staying too high, and I guess it's possible that the used Model 3s will start to beat the Model S down to below $20k.

For me, part of the issue will be to assume that eventually (years down the road) I will be out of pocket to replace a ~85kWh battery, and I will want to know, in a totally clear way, how much that will be.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
I was pleasantly surprised that GM came out with the car we wanted, at a price we could just afford, before Tesla did. GM isn't making money on them, but they can afford to lose on the handful they are interested in selling, until battery prices come down. They could surprise me again, and come out with a car comparable in price, and range to the LR Model Y. But they still have the problem of no control over the lousy CCS charging infrastructure.
If GM wanted to spend years quietly implying they were losing money on the Bolt, and trying not to sell too many, I wish they had just raised the price.

I guess GM is trying to address the CCS issue with Bechtel.
 

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For me, part of the issue will be to assume that eventually (years down the road) I will be out of pocket to replace a ~85kWh battery, and I will want to know, in a totally clear way, how much that will be.
There are several Tesla's on the road with 300K+ miles, at least one as high as 550K. Although this leaderboard doesn't say anything about battery degradation , other articles I've read indicate about 20% loss of battery. So if you have an 85kWh battery, after 300K miles or so you'd have a 68kWh battery, or 13% more that a new Bolt. So you have to ask yourself how long will it take you to drive 300K miles, and if you want to keep a car that long. And, any price you're given for battery replacement today will likely not be the price you pay 20 or so years from now when you hit the 300K mark.
Link for Tesla miles:
 

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Discussion Starter #16 (Edited)
There are several Tesla's on the road with 300K+ miles, at least one as high as 550K. Although this leaderboard doesn't say anything about battery degradation , other articles I've read indicate about 20% loss of battery. So if you have an 85kWh battery, after 300K miles or so you'd have a 68kWh battery, or 13% more that a new Bolt. So you have to ask yourself how long will it take you to drive 300K miles, and if you want to keep a car that long. And, any price you're given for battery replacement today will likely not be the price you pay 20 or so years from now when you hit the 300K mark.
Link for Tesla miles:
Well, I'm hoping for the best and planning for the worst.

For one thing, I've had an air-cooled BEV and a liquid-cooled PHEV in Arizona now, and the former experienced pretty significant degradation, while the latter appears to be on that path. This means I'm also out a bit of money, because on the PHEV I own the pink slip and reduced EV range means reduced value.

I'm not as familiar with other climates, but I wonder if your quick calculation may be somewhat optimistic. This table includes not only location, but if you click into some of the individual vehicle links, you'll see the number of "drive unit" swaps. Unfortunately I don't know if that refers to the pack, the motor, or both.

In any case, I don't expect anything to last forever. I just want companies to make a good effort to make the product so it will last a long time, and I want them, at the time I purchase the vehicle, to be up-front about what it will cost me to replace certain key components if they last past the warranty but then the components fail. This is not much to ask, but on the Volt it was not something I was ever able to get in a hassle-free way. On the Leaf, they did and do offer up-front pricing on the battery replacement (at least, last I checked, they were offering this information on the old 24 kWh Leafs.... I'm not sure how they deal with the newer bigger-battery Leafs), and I appreciate their effort on that point, even if I will not be getting into another Leaf any time soon.

 

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Tesla started offering batteries bigger than 60 kWh in 2012. It seems a fair question.
Probably more important than a bigger battery would be faster DC charging (both car capability and charge station power) without excessive hazard or battery degradation. This would be for those who rent housing and may not have convenient night time charging at home, and for those who go on long road trips.

The Bolt's 55kW maximum charging means a 30% charging time overhead on long road trips at best. 150kW charging would reduce charging time overhead to about 10%. 350kW charging would make overhead not much different from refueling liquid fuel.
 

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So the new chemistry gives them 65 kWh usable. I'd be happy if ours had the 60 kWh usable it was advertised at.

Glad to see they are not dropping the ball completely.
 
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