All they did was start charging more for the more difficult paints. Yes, they reduced other paint options, but it doesn't change the fact that the painting process is the bottleneck. So yes, painting an additional section would require more time than simply inserting a glass roof in that section's place.
https://insideevs.com/musk-paint-tesla-model-3-bottleneck/
If you didn't notice, I was responding to your point that covered two different positions. Yes.
The 60 kWh Nissan LEAF will steal away Model 3 sales. It's just a fact. To what degree is a different question. The reason I keep asking you to exercise nuance is that you can't seem to get out of the all-or-nothing, zero-sum mentality. The LEAF stealing away Model 3 sales is not synonymous with outselling the Model 3.
I don't think you are. You are a current Tesla owner correct? Do you also own a Bolt EV?
So far, a vast majority of Tesla owners I know are not working class. They take for granted that they can simply drop $50,000 for a car because it's the best. However, a majority of buyers can't do that. They have to weigh options, and if a vehicle can provide 60, 70, 80% of the value for 30, 40, 50% less money, they are likely to choose the less expensive option.
As for the variables, of course we don't have all of the facts. That's why it's called making a prediction (not a "conclusion," as you stated).