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Check my math - annoyed with ICE shills

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euv gas price
13K views 103 replies 39 participants last post by  e.45970  
#1 · (Edited)
Listening to friends, family, and politicians talk about how expensive and terrible EVs are is irritating - especially while multiple countries are setting daily heat records. I wanted something relevant to show them to try (and likely fail) to convivence them that EVs make financial sense. In short, this is the cost comparison between the best selling small SUV and a Bolt EUV. This doesn't include the costs for oil changes.

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#4 · (Edited)
All seems good. You forgot one thing - maintenance costs. I mean the oil change and stuff, not the tire rotation and windshield liquid. You can squeeze some more couple of thousands over 8 years. Which leads you to the conclusion that in about 8 years, you keep enough money in your poket to pay at least 1/2 of a new ICEV.
Your compilation was about the same I did when I decided to buy a Volt in 2014. The commute I had at the time was 50 km round trip, enough to have the Volt acting like a BEV for 9 months of the year.
 
#5 ·
And that's if you only charge at home. Sometimes DCFC's can be free. Hotels are usually free when you're a guest while traveling. I have two free L2 chargers within a short walk. I don't charge at home. I only pay something when traveling and use a DCFC. And sometimes that's free.
Gas can only be bought at gas stations. There ain't never no free gas.
And yeah no fluid changes and much less frequent brake work.
 
#15 ·
And that's if you only charge at home. Sometimes DCFC's can be free. Hotels are usually free when you're a guest while traveling. I have two free L2 chargers within a short walk. I don't charge at home. I only pay something when traveling and use a DCFC. And sometimes that's free.
Gas can only be bought at gas stations. There ain't never no free gas.
And yeah no fluid changes except for windshield washer fluid and much less frequent brake work.
FTFY.
 
#6 ·
Or you can do like I do now. With the most sarcastic voice possible
"Yeah I really messed up having these commie liberal Democrats talk me into buying an EV. I miss fueling up my car at the gas station and having gas get over my hands and cloths! Having my car be full of energy when I wake up every morning SUCKS! Come on oil changes are great, paying people to do that every 7000 miles or so. What I really miss is doing it myself and having the oil get all over me and possibly staining my cloths. Then taking the used oil in the back of your Car to a recycling center once your done is Heaven on earth"
etc. etc. etc.
Who cares what they think.
F-em
 
#10 ·
What I really miss is doing it myself and having the oil get all over me and possibly staining my cloths. Then taking the used oil in the back of your Car to a recycling center once your done is Heaven on earth"
I still do the oil changes on my Cruze. Recently I picked up four quarts at the store when I was out in our Bolt. One of the quarts leaked a bit in the cargo area. Fortunately I have a WeatherTech mat back there.

I just thought it was ironic, spilling motor oil in our Bolt. The used oil is definitely going back in the Cruze. :D
 
#7 · (Edited)
What price is put on 105 degree F heat in places it hasn’t ever happened, as the UK just experienced? They don’t need air conditioning so no one has it. How much is a heat-related death worth? How many died?

I just saw that Texas and Oklahoma hit temporary 115 F degrees. Same questions.

I remember either 2004 or 5 my town and the Central Valley of CA hit 116 and 118 for a week, with lows in the 80’s. About 15% of the dairy cows died. They were piling up bloated carcasses in front of every dairy farm, and no one went outside or did anything other than worry about the AC breaking. Mine was just on and couldn’t get down to the 80 degrees I set it to, so anyone thinks it’s hogwash needs a heat dome for a week or two, and a million acre brushfire smoke to cool it down. Just don’t breathe. I saw our air index hit 500 during the August 2020 fires all over CA.

When do we start putting those costs where they belong?

edit: I know, that ICE guy is going to call me a CA-ommie pinko libtard. I will be happy when he is paying for the real cost of FF, and sequestration is about 4x the price to put CO2 up there.

Next stop ,$25/gallon ought to convince anyone but Elon. He burns FF in his rockets, right?
 
#23 ·
I agree with the sentiment, but it's a little more complex than just switching from ICEs to EVs. Sticking only to transportation, car dependency resulting from land use choices and planning decisions probably imposes a far higher carbon penalty than ICE vs. EV. Consider the carbon footprint from car manufacturing, huge highways and stroads (What's a STROAD and Why Does It Matter?), water, electricity and gas infrastructure extensions to cover suburban sprawl, and the carbon and construction costs associated with parking minimums (a large factor in the nationwide housing shortage, which leads to more sprawl in a vicious downward spiral). It's impossible to calculate the carbon costs and also opportunity costs associated with car dependent development patterns, but they must be absolutely massive.
 
#11 ·
.... In short, this is the cost comparison between the best selling small SUV and a Bolt EUV. This doesn't include the costs for oil changes.
Love it !!
Can you make one with a Maintenance line? Oil, filter, brakes, etc.
I'll print several and keep them near!
 
#13 ·
I told my neighbor that I am really mad that electricity went up to 22 cents/kWh, so now I am paying over 5 cents/mile. Blasphemous I say!


Wait, you are paying $6/gal for the CRV to go ~30 miles if you hypermile?

(600/30=20 cents/mile)

He then justifies “but your car is a bit small.” and then I say “it holds 5 stuffed full black garbage can bags-full of recycle cans or bottles behind the front seats. How many can you take?”

“The exact same.”
 
#14 ·
Good for you, Martin D. I created a spreadsheet that shows me that my Bolt travel costs me 1/5 to 1/6 what a 30 MPG ICE vehicle would cost for the same distances. There is so much intentional disinformation and unintentional stupidity out there from those who've never owned, driven or even ridden in an EV. Keep the faith and don't back down. I do and I don't.
 
#17 ·
I don't think it's possible to get a Toyota RAV4 for under $30,000 right now. On the other hand, I guess maybe you can't buy a Bolt for $28,000 either, so maybe they balance each other out. Or was your spreadsheet just supposed to show historic prices of what people paid previously?
 
#21 ·
As I'm often saying, the math is good but not the assumptions.

*The price of regular gasoline since 2017 has averaged $3.22/gal in my relatively expensive state of Oregon. That trend holds true even back a decade. The $4.50 estimate is at least a dollar higher than reasonable.

*The average EV is driven 7,000 miles per year while the average ICE 10,200 miles.

*The average cost of electricity in the US is $0.1477 / kWh

Finally, we'll always have the "apples / oranges" problem to contend with. How much is having a tow rating worth? How much is differing interior volumes worth? How important is an AWD option? How much is rapid refueling worth? How much is starting out full every day from the garage worth?

All this leaves out the #1 cost of ownership for most people, and that is depreciation. Who knows how much value will be retained 5 years from now? Typically, EVs have depreciated more rapidly than ICE with the exception of Tesla. We would need to make big assumptions about this to estimate future cost.

The vehicle total cost of ownership spreadsheet I have linked in my signature is a way better tool for doing cost analysis because it attempts to factor in as many variables as possible.
 
#22 ·
These aren't assumptions - its data.
  • This is the average gas price today and for the foreseeable future. AAA Gas Prices
  • These figures use equal mileage per year (15k)
  • I got the price from this site - looks similar to yours. State Electricity Profiles - Energy Information Administration (eia.gov)
  • For the small SUVs in this comparison - the tow rating, volume, and drive wheels are similar
  • Depreciation on gas cars is going to be massive. the most in-demand vehicles are EVs already.
Speed of charging sucks on the bolt, but most people are kidding themselves if they think they take enough trips over 300 miles for it to matter - to the people that do take long trips regularly, i dont recommend the bolt. Id suggest an Ioniq5.

Obviously there are lots of variables. The point here is to get people thinking about it with a simple chart.
 
#24 · (Edited)
Current data is a poor way to make assumptions about the future. Trends are imperfect, but better.

The most in-demand vehicles are not EVs, given that they represented 3% of sales. It's true that demand for EVs increase when fuel prices are high, but that is very temporary.

A wise person might sell now at the peak of used vehicle value and demand for efficient vehicles, though the future is never certain. (buy low, sell high philosophy)

Those that concern themselves with making wise financial decisions will own a vehicle for a longer duration (and buy used in the first place). Practically nobody makes vehicle purchasing decisions based on financial reasons though. It's why car commercials show animations of cars dancing with music instead of saying a single thing about the vehicle.

For the couple percent of people who are interested in total cost of ownership, they would utilize something like my spreadsheet so they can get the most accurate estimate possible rather than relying on assumptions that don't apply to them.

EDIT: I was thinking of a particular commercial of the cars themselves dancing, but couldn't find it. Didn't realize there are dozens of car commercials as braindead, as I haven't seen a commercial in about 12 years.

 
#25 ·
Current data is a poor way to make assumptions about the future. Trends are imperfect, but better.

The most in-demand vehicles are not EVs, given that they represented 3% of sales. It's true that demand for EVs increase when fuel prices are high, but that is very temporary.

A wise person might sell now at the peak of used vehicle value and demand for efficient vehicles, though the future is never certain. (buy low, sell high philosophy)

Those that concern themselves with making wise financial decisions will own a vehicle for a longer duration (and buy used in the first place). Practically nobody makes vehicle purchasing decisions based on financial reasons though. It's why car commercials show animations of cars dancing with music instead of saying a single thing about the vehicle.

For the couple percent of people who are interested in total cost of ownership, they would utilize something like my spreadsheet so they can get the most accurate estimate possible rather than relying on assumptions that don't apply to them.
EVs represent low sales because most cars available are gas. Gas cars will not become more desirable as EVs become more available - excluding collector/fun cars. I think most people have a budget when buying a car....
 
#26 · (Edited)
People have a budget, but that doesn't mean they are forward thinking about future costs. When the slimy salesman sits a person down, he divides a paper into 4 sections (the infamous four square).

1. Current vehicle trade-in value (trading in is financially suboptimal)
2. Down payment
3. Purchase price
4. Monthly payment

Image


Notice cost of gas isn't in there, or total cost of ownership, or anything that someone concerned with making prudent financial decisions would be concerned with. A budget is simply a way to "afford" something. It has little to do with financial prudence.

BTW, the entire reason I created my own total cost of ownership spreadsheet is because it literally doesn't exist on the whole entire internet. I Googled like crazy for a tool like that, but such a thing is so NOT in demand by people that nobody created one. I had to be the first human in the world to do it. There's probably been a handful of people interested enough to use it.

The only reason articles are written on either side of the "affordability debate" is simply to make jabs at the other side to generate click revenue.

The only generally true thing that can be said about total cost of ownership is that EVs tend to be more affordable the more miles they are driven compared to an ICE. Someone driving 4,000 miles a year is probably financially better off with an ICE, and someone commuting 100 miles per day is probably financially better off with an EV. Things like free charging are among the many, many factors that play into these equations.

EDIT: Running the numbers in my spreadsheet given the following assumptions which apply to my situation;

8 years of ownership
Base model MSRP of each vehicle
12,000 miles
$3.22 / gallon gas
$0.10 / kWh
Double maintenance cost for ICE
No financing
No taxes
75% vehicle depreciation for both vehicles
All other parameters the same

Bolt EUV costs me $35,000 over 8 years
RAV4 costs me $38,500 over 8 years

Somewhere around 6,000 annual miles is the breakeven point between the EUV and RAV4. Any less miles, and the RAV4 is cheaper, and any more the EUV becomes cheaper.

Looks like my WAG of 4,000 miles being cheaper to drive an ICE was pretty close.
 
#53 ·
People have a budget, but that doesn't mean they are forward thinking about future costs. When the slimy salesman sits a person down, he divides a paper into 4 sections (the infamous four square).

...<snip>...

BTW, the entire reason I created my own total cost of ownership spreadsheet is because it literally doesn't exist on the whole entire internet. I Googled like crazy for a tool like that, but such a thing is so NOT in demand by people that nobody created one. I had to be the first human in the world to do it. There's probably been a handful of people interested enough to use it.
Ditto for me, but my aim wasn't purely financial prudence, just figuring out how long I had to "pay" for the privilege of a new car. I break even on my 2017 Bolt in 15 years (7 years previously when I drove 20k/year). Was surprising no online tools included insurance rates or fine detail info like actual maintenance costs. I found a few using IRS wear-tear numbers but that wouldn't be precise enough for an EV vs ICE comparison.

...snip...

All that said, I've always argued that paying for necessary infrastructure with gasoline taxes is dumb, because the proper way to pay for necessary things is through regular tax revenue. 100% of people rely on road infrastructure to live they way they do, so why not fund it adequately through regular taxation like everything else we consider to be necessary?
That's an interesting point I never encountered before. I'm gonna think on that and likely won't remember to come back to add to discussion, but that's pretty interesting. I always defaulted to a usage tax but never thought to account for people who benefit from road usage but never use the road themselves.
 
#27 ·
I'm the one who said be sarcastic. But if I was living in an apartment and couldn't charge overnight, I would not buy an electric vehicle. Having an electric vehicle necessitates somewhere to charge overnight in my opinion. You can do it, but it'll be a pain in the butt.
 
#28 ·
I agree that many apartments can't easily be converted to allow EV charging. Some of the newest ones in Austin have an EVSE or two but not enough to charge everyone. Few companies have installed enough charge stations for employees but not sure that is great if they try to charge during the daytime.


The price of electricity is dependent of a few things. Texas shut down some 20-30 coal plants and tried to offset with wind solar and more natural gas plants. We all know what is going on with natural gas so yeeeuuup, electric goes up.
Second is that many electric companies would like the power usage to be constant over 24 hours. To that end many can offer deals at nights and weekends. So did the EV charge at night actually raise the costs?? NO!
 
#29 ·
Why bother? They'll just come back with something about you not counting having to buy a new $10,000 battery or something else. It's a car, not a cause. Drive what you like and let other drive what they want.

If you do think it's a cause and not just a car, look at how easy it is for any group with a cause to convert those with an opposing cause.
 
#34 ·
I have been having this discussion from the opposite side in a diesel forum that I also frequent. The arguments trotted out there are how "dirty" EV manufacturing is, how you have to recharge every 100 miles in a F-150 EV when towing and a new video on how daily charging of EVs takes 4 times the electricity that residential A/C use consumes. Using facts and data does not dissuade the anti-EV diesel guys.
 
#66 ·
I regard those as separate issues to be addressed (paying for infrastructure and disincentivizing pollution).

I'm not saying fossil fuels should not be taxed by the gallon, I'm just saying necessary infrastructure shouldn't be reliant on that tax revenue. Throw that tax revenue into the general fund and then spend that money based on priority.

As I'm constantly saying, IF it's important to curb fossil fuel consumption, then progressively raising taxation on it is the most reasonable way to accomplish the goal of reduction with the smallest footprint for corruption.